Mixed results last week. But lets keep the “obscure” or “unlikely” premise going in Week 6.
Daily Fantasy League Breakdown – Week 6
Daily Fantasy League advice.
- What has happened to Matthew Stafford ($6,900/$5,300)? Poor mechanics, a poor offensive line, and a poor running game are at the forefront. Stafford was benched after yet another disappointing performance last week but that was more of a message from Jim Caldwell rather then the beginning of a quarterback controversy. Hopefully, the benching served as bit of a wake-up call, at least I believe the potential of a Stafford breakthrough is worth rolling the dice on in Week 6. Why? Stafford is undeniably talented (albeit woefully inconsistent). Also, take a look at the schedule. Four straight contests against Minnesota, Denver, Seattle and Arizona. Those are brutal matchups when you compound all of the issues in Detroit. Next consider the Lions running game. They don’t run the football, which is part of the problem with Stafford. But, volume can be a good thing sometimes. The Lions face a Bears defense that hasn’t given up a ton of passing yardage but is ranked 28th in Passer Rating Against. Additionally, they only have 9 sacks on the season and Kyle Fuller and Tracy Porter rank among the bottom half of cornerbacks in the league according to Pro Football Focus. Their is an opportunity for Stafford to recapture some of the confidence that he has lost. Stafford and Detroit are desperate (0-5) and desperation can lead to remarkable feats. Don’t expect a career game, but Stafford and the Lions are due for at least a good game and with this favorable matchup, inexpensive price tag, and the masses shying away from Stafford now’s the time to jump on board and ride what I expect to be a motivated Stafford in DFS this week.
- Teddy Bridgewater’s ($6,600/$5,300) numbers to this point have been rather pedestrian. But he played his best game of the season against an excellent Broncos defense prior to Minnesota’s Week 5 bye. That game was at Denver too. With Bridgewater settling in, his receiving corps taking shape, and Adrian Peterson in the backfield favorable opportunities in the passing game will present themselves with more frequency. Add to the mix the Vikings have an additional week to prepare for the Chiefs’ 26th ranked pass defense and their league leading 13 touchdown passes allowed. Bridgewater and his bargain DFS price tags are worth the investment.
- By no means a bargain, Arian Foster ($8,500/$7,000) is an interesting play in DFS because I can imagine a scenario where he will be heavily started in DFS and conversely I wouldn’t be surprised if owners widely ignore him because of his injury concerns, price tag and lack of production since returning in Week 4. Foster is currently averaging 1.9 ypc (27 carries) and the Houston Texans offense, outside of DeAndre Hopkins is laughable. However, a matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars who gave up 31 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense may be the remedy to their ills. In fact, Doug Martin and Charles Sims combined for 174 rushing yards, 7 receptions, 120 receiving yards, and 3 total TDs. Despite the inherent risks, we all know what Foster is capable of. Keep in mind Paul Posluszny is expected to return to the middle of the Jaguars defense which may scare off some of the competition in terms of starting Foster. Good news for you, not so great news for Foster’s prospects. Posluszny was in fact leading the NFL in tackles and a good run defense prior to suffering a high ankle sprain in Week 4, which kept him out of the game against Tampa Bay. But I believe in Foster’s talent, his importance to the Texans’ success and the 9 receptions and 77 receiving yards he had against the Colts the last time the Texans took the field. Foster practiced in full this week and he last played 10 days ago so he should be well rested. Even if he doesn’t rip of chunks of yardage on the ground he’s going to be slated for a heavy workload. The value and the risk lies in whether or not you believe he finishes the game.
- It’s almost as if the Dolphins are preparing for life without Lamar Miller ($6,400/$4,300), as the tailback is in the final year of his rookie deal. Ironically enough, Miller added bulk to his frame this past offseason in order to take on a heavier workload; but he’s averaging fewer than 9 carries per game and only had seven touts in each of the Dolphins last two contests. I expect Miller to be more of an integral part of the offense moving forward and coming off a bye week he gets the Tennessee Titans who are allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Considering Miller’s scant workload and the futility of the Dolphins organization thus far I imagine most DFS owners won’t even notice Miller’s name when scrolling through the running backs. Don’t make that mistake. Miller’s ineffectiveness has been a byproduct of the Dolphins trying to justify Ryan Tannehill’s cap number rather than Miller’s skill. Expect Miller to be featured this week as interim head coach Dan Campbell attempts to take some pressure off of Tannehill and the defense. The last “UM” running back the Titans faced was Frank Gore (14/86/2).
- Anquan Boldin ($6,500/$4,300) and Torrey Smith ($6,200/$4,200). I know who their quarterback is. But that is part of the reason why I am recommending them both. Colin Kaepernick didn’t poop himself last week and he will be facing a struggling Ravens defense that hasn’t been able to defend the pass at all. Did you see what Josh McCown did last week? I put more stock into players getting particularly pumped to face their old teams than most but I really believe there is something to it (see Andre Johnson vs. Texans; Charles Clay vs. Dolphins). Boldin and Smith are former Ravens. Boldin (8/107/1) is coming off his best performance of the season last week and Smith’s (6/120/1) only notable performance of the season came against another hapless secondary in the Pittsburgh Steelers. Smith only has 5 receptions in the other 4 games he’s played in combined. If you’re looking for obscurity and upside this pair has it in spades.
- Mike Wallace ($5,400/$4,500) is coming off a solid game (8/83/1) against the likes of Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr.. I like Wallace this week for the same reasons I like Bridgewater. That’s all.
- Derek Carrier (4,900/$2,500) has yet to demonstrate the athletic prowess or rapport with Kirk Cousins that Jordan Reed did prior to his injury. Carrier only managed 3 targets last week but he did catch a TD pass against the Falcons. Facing a substantially better and more aggressive defense, down two starting offensive linemen, and compounded with Cousins’ inability to push the football down the field with any consistency, Derek Carrier presents a cheap and potentially lucrative DFS option in Week 6 as he works the short to intermediate portions of the field. The NFL is a game of matchups. As I’ve mentioned before Cousins struggles to push the football down the field or complete passes outside the numbers. Not to mention the Jets defensive backs matchup favorably against the Redskins receivers. The Redskins offensive line is banged up too and the Jets defensive line is among the most talented in the NFL so it may be tough sledding running the football. Carrier isn’t exactly known for his run blocking. However, Carrier is a converted receiver and while David Harris and Demario Davis aren’t slouches in coverage it isn’t exactly their forte. Carrier could be a big part of this week’s game plan.
- You’re on your own this week… I can’t seem to get the right defense in my DFS. I got you next week.