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DFS Week 7: By the Numbers

DFS Week 7: By the Numbers
@_fantasykings

By: Randall Blakeslee @_fantasykings
DFS Week 7: By the Numbers

Welcome back. You might ask why I wait until Saturdays to publish my DFS suggestions for Sunday’s games? The answer is simple: too many changes occur right up until the last minute and those changes matter. Carlos Hyde is now a Jacksonville Jaguar. Nick Chubb immediately becomes a legitimate RB2 with upside and Duke Johnson Jr. is a tad bit more PPR relevant. The trade between the Browns and Jags sends us mix signals, especially since the Jags recently signed former fantasy juggernaut, Jamaal Charles. How many RBs do the Jags need beyond Fournette, Yeldon, and Charles? Seemingly, they need Hyde. This tells us one of two things. They are already determined to cut Charles or they plan to put Fournette on the back burner, beyond the previously reported week 10. IR? Who knows?

With that, let’s talk about DFS last week. To be blunt, we smoked it (see what I did there?). Anyhow, let’s get to our HITS (which were plenty) and MISSES:

HITS

Jameis Winston (35.7 pts): Winston finished as week 6’s QB1. Yeah, nailed it. He threw for 395 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, and rushed 5 times for 29 yards. It was almost a no-brainer considering that the Falcons’ pass defense ranked 31st in the league, but this was Winston’s first game back in the starting lineup. It was a gamble either way. A gamble that paid dividends. You’re welcome.

Allen Robinson II (17.4 pts): This was truly a call based on “going with my gut.”  Robinson caught 5 of his 6 targets for 64 yards and a TD. Not exactly monster numbers, but at $5,500 and being faded on every rankings list, his numbers were a HIT. I’ll take it and so should you.

STACK / Matt Ryan (30.5) + Julio Jones (27.4): Can you believe Matt Ryan is QB2 on the year so far? I can. I drafted him in most of my redraft leagues. Another gut call that he’d return to his 2016 form. Fingers crossed he remains as such. He finished with 355 yards, 3 TDs, and 13 rushing yards on a single scamper. Stack that up with Julio’s 10 receptions for 144 yards and you fared well. Now, if only Julio can find the damn end zone (sigh).

STACK / Patrick Mahomes (32.0 pts) + Tyreek Hill (42.2 pts): Everyone knew this was going to be a shootout between Mahomes and the GOAT. We just didn’t know how great the game would be. Only TB12 could’ve handed the Chiefs their first loss. Mahomes threw for 352 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, and rushed twice for 9 yards. The other part of this stack, Tyreek Hill, destroyed fantasy teams with his 7 receptions, 142 receiving yards, and 3 TDs. Yeah, these two are worth the combined $14,700 they cost you last week.

MEH

Tevin Coleman (11.1 pts): If he continues to post low-end RB numbers, Ito Smith might steal the starting job, especially since Devonta Freeman is on the IR. If it wasn’t for his receiving TD in the red zone, as I predicted to the mark, he would have greatly disappointed fantasy owners. With 35 rushing yards, 6 receiving yards and TD, his performance was mildly disappointing instead.

STACK / Jameis Winston (35.7 pts) + Mike Evans (9.8pts): Winston was a monster on his own, but Evans disappointed, yet again, with 4 catches for 58 yards. He wasn’t the guy for the Winston stack. However, we all know he will be sooner rather than later.

STACK / Andy Dalton (17.2 pts) + A.J. Green (15.5 pts): A dismal day for them both. Dalton blew it with only 229 yards passing and 2 TDs. Especially, since he was facing one of the bottom of the barrel pass defenses in the Steelers. A.J. Green fared a little better since he was targeted 12 times, but he didn’t find the end zone among his 85 yards.

MISSES

Bilal Powell (5.9 pts): He got the touches. 16 to be exact. Powell just did very little with them, only averaging 3.6 YPC. I think it’s time to fade this entire backfield until Powell or Crowell get sidelined.

Ronald Jones II (4.9 pts): He was the longshot, so no real miss. Yet, I have to list him here as a MISS because if he performed well, I would have listed him as a HIT. Fair is fair. What’s not fair is his continued piss-poor performaces. Granted, not entirely his fault since he was only given the rock 1 time on the ground and 3 times in the air. It’s Todd Monken’s fault and I’m sticking to my story.

DFS STEAL(S) OF THE WEEK

Nick Chubb, RB (CLE) $3,600:  I started off the article with Chubb. His Yahoo ownership went from 30% to 73% within a few hours of the announcement of Hyde being traded to Jacksonville. Tampa Bay currently ranks 5th against the run, only allowing 84.2 rushing YPG and giving up 5 TDs on the ground so far. I know, tough. However, I believe this is Chubbs’ coming out party and everyone’s invited.

Taylor Gabriel, WR (CHI) $4,700: Gabriel is now fantasy relevant. Over the past 2 games he’s amassed 215 receiving yards and 2 TDs on 12 catches. By the way, that’s 12 catches on 12 targets. He’s on fire. Trubisky is on fire. The Pats passing defense is also on fire, but more along the lines of continually being torched. They allow on average 277.7 passing YPG and have given up 15 TDs through the air so far. This is either going to be a high scoring affair or a dud. I’m going with the over.

Mitchell Trubisky, QB (CHI) $5,600: Like I said, Mitch is on fire. 661 passing yards and 9 TDs over his last two games. He was QB1 in week 4 with his over-the-top performance against the Bucs. So, what should we expect against New England? Take a look at NFL NextGen charts below. I overlaid Trubisky’s 2018 current passer rating chart with Luck’s week 5 performance (left) and Mahomes’ week 6 performance (right) against the Pats. Most of Luck’s and Mahomes’ TDs completed passes are in the zones where Trubisky is either at or above average. These vulnerabilities and gaps in New England’s pass defense are exactly where Trubisky throws best.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

David Njoku, TE (CLE) $4,200: Njoku is coming off a big game against the Chargers with his 7-55-1 performance, on 12 targets. He’s a favorite weapon for Mayfield and going against the Bucs’ defense, I feel like I could score on them. Don’t be scared to fire him and Baker up in a stack this week. I intend to.

Kerryon Johnson, RB (DET) $4,500: He hasn’t quite made the splash we all thought he would. Once again, I’m going with my gut here. Though he’s only costing you RB2 money, I believe he’s due to finish with RB1 numbers this week. No real analysis here. I’m just feeling him.

Colts, DST (IND) $3,300: The Colts aren’t exactly a stronghold defensive unit, but they are going against Derek Anderson and the Bills. Not quite sure you know much about Anderson? He’s an 18 year veteran QB with a career 71.1 passer rating, with 60 TDs, 60 INTs, and 31 fumbles. What could possibly go wrong for the Bills?

DFS LONG SHOT

Josh Reynolds, WR (LAR) $3,500: With the absence of Cooper Kupp, the 2nd year wideout is an interesting play here. With brandin Cooks and Robert Woods commanding all the attention, Josh is a major boom or bust play. At $3,500, why not use him to free up the salary cap?

DFS STACKS

In a previous article I discussed the benefits of stacking a QB and a WR/TE, a popular gaming method in DFS that pays dividends. Here are this week’s recommended stacks:

  • Baker Mayfield ($5,800) and Jarvis Landry ($7,300) or David Njoku ($4,200)
  • Mitch Trubisky ($5,600) and Taylor Gabriel ($4,700)
  • Andy Dalton ($6,400) and A.J. Green ($8,100) or Tyler Boyd ($6,700)

RECOMMENDED DFS ROSTERS

FINAL NOTES

The salaries and PPG are taken from Draft Kings. Entering 50/50 contests is the absolute best way to win and double your money. If you decide to go all in and chase the big money, just be sure to enter a few 50/50 DFS contests to ensure you win your money back. Let’s get ready for another exciting week and good luck to you and your lineups.

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