By Aaron Schillinger (Owner/Creator of FFDynasty260)
Dynasty Buy Low & Sell High 4.0
Dynasty owners don’t care what time of year it is. If you’re a Dynasty Twitter fan, you are just starting to see the Redraft players come out realize that Michael Thomas is a thing. *Yes, we actually had a few followers ask this. They’re getting starting looking at rankings and talking about who is going to grab Marshawn Lynch in the big family league draft. The Dynasty owners that still dabble in the Redraft leagues cannot wait to get these Redraft leagues going. Wait until we have the Twitter Dynasty owners showing off their ridiculously stacked Redraft teams, we know. We’re all in the same boat.
Regardess of Redraft or Dynasty leagues, there is one thing that Dynasty owners always care about, and that is who to buy and who to sell. The ever changing values of players is one of the most exciting and entertaining aspects of Dynasty leagues. In the last edition, Dynasty Buy Low & Sell High 3.0, I used MFL ADP data, in this one I chose to use FantasyPros Dynasty PPR ADP. We can all agree, you can’t get enough of these buy and sell articles, so let’s get into it.
Christian McCaffrey is an interesting one to kick this group of players to sell high on. Having said that, this is the epitome of rookie hype. I had to do a double take when I noticed that McCaffrey has moved up to the 9th overall Dynasty RB according to FantasyPros current Dynasty rankings. Don’t get me wrong, I love McCaffrey. Also with the direction the Panthers appear to be taking on offense, one would believe that he will thrive, especially in PPR formats. Could he? Absolutely. Will he? History shows us the odds that are against him.
There is no doubt that Christian McCaffrey is a very talented RB, and the stats from his time at Stanford definitely support this. He has proven that he can handle a hefty workload, he has proven he is an excellent pass catcher, but there are many things that need to fall in place in order for him to produce at a high level in the NFL. Not to mention, recent reports seem to be coming up all over the place about Cam Newton’s struggles with the short passes, this article from PFF digs in to some of the areas that he tends to struglle. PFF: Cam Newton
Nothing screams rookie hype more than Christian McCaffrey as the 9th overall Dynasty RB. If you want to get an idea at what to expect from rookies, check out Realistic Rookie Expectations or Rookie RB Historical Success. I won’t get too deep into why the odds are stacked against Caff at his current price, but while his value is so high, go sell him for a stud WR or a proven RB.
Jameis Winston/Marcus Mariota
As difficult as it is to say, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota both currently have a price that has gotten ridiculous. Many sources you look at, you’ll see these two either back to back or very close in rankings. FantasyPros is currently no exception. Winston is coming in at the 5th ranked QB and Mariota is the 6th. As I said before, it is difficult to sell these guys who are just beginning to flourish, and both have been set up beautifully this off-season. All signs point to a successful career, and most importantly, excellent long term Dynasty options. Corey Davis, Eric Decker, Chris Godwin, OJ Howard, and DeSean Jackson just to name a few of the additional weapons that these guys are looking at.
Now that I’m done swooning over these two, let’s get real. Assuming you’re still in your more traditional 1QB leagues, there’s not doubt that QBs are very valuable. Especially when you can ride the back of Brees or Brady for 5 years or so, never having to worry who to start week in and week out. Having said that, the value of these two QBs is high enough right now that you can get a stud WR or a pretty well proven RB out of them, with a guy like Andy Dalton thrown in. The long term value of QBs in Dynasty is inevitable, but for 1QB leagues, we tend to forget that guys like Stafford and Rivers are going to be fine options for several more years. If you own Winston or Mariota, I’m okay with holding on to them if you have no other options and want to bank on them for the future, but you’d be crazy not to at least shop them around at their current value.
Another guy that I have been a big fan of all off season who has gotten a ridiculous amount of hype is Isaiah Crowell. Between Duke Johnson being somewhat underwhelming, an excellent offensive line, and one of the few lead backs in a RBBC overtaken league, the Crowell hype makes sense. Crowell has been a guy who hasn’t got much respect, and he clearly is finally getting the credit he deserves.
As the current 19th overall RB on FantasyPros, I definitely think this number doesn’t do justice for the hype Crow has been getting recently. It doesn’t take long to scroll through your Twitter timeline to see some crazy Crowell trades. The hype is warranted, the situation is great, but let’s not get too carried away here. Here are some recent deals that I’ve seen go down for Crowell:
Washington Wide Receivers
This one may throw some owners for a loop, but this situation is one that tends to bring some controversy to Dynasty owners. The three Washington WRs are within 10 spots of each other in the current FantasyPros Dynasty ADP rankings. Terrelle Pryor (26th), Jamison Crowder (32nd), and Josh Doctson (35th). For a more in depth look at Jamison Crowder, check out this Player Analysis.
Whether you’re buying into the Terelle Pryor hype or not, his current value is inevitable. The Pryor hype is no joke, there’s Dynasty owners out there convinced Pryor is going to be a monster with Cousins (which is not out of the question by any means), I however am not one of those advocators. Whether you want to face it or not, I find it hard to argue against the belief that Josh Doctson has just as much upside. The 26th WR off the board versus the 35th WR off the board, big difference? Not a huge gap, but enough that you can sneak an extra pick or throw in player into a deal swapping Pryor for Doctson. Let’s not forget that Doctson was arguably the second or third highest rated prospect behind Laquan Treadwell heading into 2016.
*Side note, had you known about the WR PSI system heading into 2016, let’s just say you wouldn’t have taken Laquan, you would have waited and snagged Doctson.
As stated previously, this Washington receiving core is definitely throwing owners for a loop, and being so close in their rankings, you can really pick and choose who you like and shop around accordingly. I am also a believer in Jamison Crowder, but again, with these guys currently having such a close price tag, it is definitely worth weighing your options. Similar upside, similar price tag, and wouldn’t you know it? The same team.
Other Sell High Candidates:
Joe Williams, Tyrell Williams, and Ameer Abdullah
At this point in time, it is very well known that Lamar Miller was not good in 2016. Despite a career high 268 carries, his efficiency on that struggling offense was disappointing. Then the NFL Draft comes around and D’Onta Foreman the Texas native lands in Houston. An above average situation for a rookie RB to come into a struggling offense, with a chance to have a role in the backfield after Miller’s struggles in 2016. Then the bomb drops and Foreman is in the news, getting arrested for possession of a firearm and marijuana. I’m not counting Foreman out by any means. However, it is absolutely worth noting that Foreman is already having some issues.
I actually ran this poll as I was putting this article together just to show the hype on Isaiah Crowell in comparison to the price of Lamar Miller. Miller is currently the 15th ranked RB on FantasyPros and Crowell is the 19th. I expect their price tags will be even closer when the season rolls around.
— FFDynasty260 (@FFD260) July 26, 2017
Between reports from the Texans have shown that Lamar Miller is getting more comfortable with the offense, the idea of Deshaun Watson for the future, improvements to the OL from the draft, Texans Draft Breakdown 2017, and the speculation of off the field issues with Foreman, this makes Lamar Miller a solid buy low candidate heading into 2017.
Baltimore Wide Receivers
On the flip side of the ‘Sell High’ on the Washington Redskins WRs, the Baltimore Ravens WRs offer some excellent value. Jeremy Maclin (43rd), Breshad Perriman (45th), and Mike Wallace (66th). This is also an interesting situation because, let’s be honest, no one is looking at Maclin or Wallace as long term Dynasty options at this point. However, if you’re a team that’s looking to make a playoff run or be a solid contender for the next few years? Maclin and Wallace offer some crazy good value here.
Mike Wallace at the 66th overall WR is perhaps warranted from a Dynasty outlook, but are we really discounting a guy that sneakily finishes as a WR3 in most formats? A team that is contending can go buy Wallace for dirt cheap and have a solid WR3/Flex option for 2017. Not to mention, he’s in a contract year, so if you’re a believer in that extra motivation, insert Wallace here. If you take a look at the Air Yards data below, courtesy of airyards.com, you’ll see just how much of Baltimore’s targets are up for grabs in 2017 as well. Maclin’s value is not as juicy as Wallace’s, but it is a similar ordeal. Breshad Perriman was one of my buy low candidates previously, and his value still stands as such.
Speaking of the Baltimore Ravens, and conveniently the day after the news about Kenneth Dixon missing the entire 2017 season, go buy Danny Woodhead. Terrance West is the guy that will likely have a higher price tag when the season rolls around. Currently West’s RB rank is 66th and Woodhead’s is 48th. FantasyPros does go by PPR scoring which makes sense for Woodhead, but I wouldn’t be surprised if West’s price is higher when Redraft leagues kick off.
Woodhead is a guy that I would be targeting if I am a contender for the next couple years and need an option as a PPR RB2. There are plenty of targets to go around with the departure of Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta, which is partly why the Ravens WRs are good buy low candidates at this time as well. Woodhead will definitely be one that will demand a chunk of those targets, and if you buy him before his price gets too steep, you’re doing Dynasty fantasy right. Kyle Juszczyk is out of Baltimore too, after quietly grabbing 30 receptions in 2016. Take a look at the Air Yards data above, these targets and touches are up for grabs and Danny Woodhead, despite his age and injury concerns, should once again offer his sneaky good upside. I’d actually be more inclined to hold onto West if you’ve got him, wait for his value to continue climbing up, and sell him when the time is right.
An interesting guy to buy low on right now, but John Ross is still going after Mike Williams in Rookie drafts. According to the current MFL ADP, he is the 16th rookie off the board, with Williams as the 14th. As we know, Williams is dealing with possibly a serious back concern, let’s not forget him walking around with a neck brace at Clemson. Williams has been one that’s getting targeted as a likely bust candidate, and I can’t say I disagree at this point. John Ross is getting a rep for being a ‘burner’ or a ‘deep-threat’ guy, but if you look back at his numbers, that really wasn’t the case.
I won’t go too much into detail, but it really seems like his 40 time has given some owners this preconceived notion that he isn’t all that talented of a WR.
According to the current FantasyPros WR rankings, Ross is the 41st WR and Williams is the 28th WR. I’m not saying that John Ross is going to come out and be extremely productive in the NFL, but being opposite of AJ Green is definitely a plus. Tyler Boyd showed us that he couldn’t out perform Brandon LaFell, and Tyler Eifert gets his work done primarily inside the 20. With his current price tag in Rookie drafts, along with his current ranking for Dynasty WRs, Ross is someone that I would love to get a shot at his upside, at a price that to me is very cheap at this point.
Other Buy Low Candidates:
John Brown, Kenny Britt, and Doug Martin.