Solid performance in Week 6. Let’s keep it going. Here are some last minute suggestions to put you over the top in DFS this week.
Daily Fantasy League Breakdown – Week 7
Daily Fantasy League advice.
- Despite the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Andy Dalton being on a bye week there are multiple, affordable and favorable matchups that the masses will likely opt for (Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer). I wouldn’t blame you for starting either, I am. But if you’re willing to take the risk consider Ryan Tannehill ($7,700/$5,700). I have been particularly critical of the Dolphins signal caller as he has struggled to push the football downfield with consistency. However, with new head coach Dan Campbell’s run first philosophy I believe it will make Tannehill a more efficient passer. With a consistent running game led by Lamar Miller, the play action pass becomes that much more potent and passing lanes become larger. Coming out of the bye the Dolphins demoted Greg Jennings and inserted Kenny Stills into 3-wide sets, the correct and obvious move, one that Joe Philbin apparently couldn’t get his mind wrapped around. Rishard Matthews, Jarvis Landry and Stills present a dynamic trio that should find no trouble having success against a disappointing and frankly overrated Texans defense. Only 3 of 32 teams have allowed more passing TDs than the Houston Texans (12). And only 5 of 32 teams have fewer sacks than the Houston Texans (9). Furthermore the greatness that is Blake Bortles lit Houston up 303 yards, 3 TDs without the benefit of a running game to provide balance. Bortles threw 3 interceptions but those were only the 3rd, 4th and 5th INTs the Texans have come up with these season. The matchup is nice, the Dolphins are more talented than the Jags and Tannehill is a bit off the radar. Diamond in the Week 7 DFS rough.
- Whenever it comes to a timeshare in the backfield I have a tendency to lean towards the guy who gets the red-zone looks or plays in passing situations. If that back happens to be the player of choice in both scenarios I’m all in. Matt Jones ($5,600/$3,300) of the Washington Redskins fits that bill. Having lost playing time to both Alfred Morris and Chris Thompson due to ball security issues prior to getting injured and missing the Week 6 contest, Matt Jones will largely be an afterthought in the DFS community. However, Chris Thompson is expected to miss a home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers so Jones, who is an accomplished receiver out of the backfield is expected to assume the pass catching responsibilities on Sunday. He had already claimed the title of preferred back in the red-zone and in my opinion is a more talented ball-carrier than Alfred Morris. Additionally, Morris has struggled to be effective in a power run scheme having enjoyed success throughout his career primarily in a zone blocking scheme. The coaching staff had to show him some tough love earlier in the season but they LOVE Jones nonetheless. Playing Jones comes with substantial risk because of the timeshare component but from a game flow perspective he will have a secure role. The Bucs struggle to stop the opposition’s passing game but I anticipate they will pay particular attention to Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed. That leaves the underneath available to the likes of Jamsion Crowder and Matt Jones. Tampa Bay’s middle of the road (ranked 16th) rush defense isn’t anything to write home about either. I like Matt Jones in Week 7.
- I was prepared to write about Martavis Bryant before he and Landry Jones went off in Week 6. But, there was another receiver in that game that I believe may be flying under the radar. Michael Floyd ($4,900/$3,200) of the Arizona Cardinals shouldn’t be ignored. In fact, as I am writing this many of the individuals that have John Brown in their lineups will likely insert Michael Floyd if Brown suffers a setback with his hamstrings (shrewd move). Brown has missed practice time throughout the week and there are mixed reports about his availability for the Monday night game. Slowed by a hand injury to start the season Floyd only had 2 targets through the 1st two weeks of the season. Over the last four weeks Floyd has 23 targets and in last week’s game against the Steelers Floyd was targeted as season high 8 times and caught his 1st TD on the season. There obviously is a scenario where Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown usurp the majority of the targets leaving Floyd a few meager looks as the third option in the passing game. However, Floyd really developed a rapport with Carson Palmer last season prior to Palmer’s injury and John Brown may end up being nothing more than a decoy on Monday night. The Ravens are dreadful at pass defense. I mean, I recommended Torrey Smith of all people last week and he paid dividends. However, the Ravens are adept at stopping the run so I expect Bruce Arians and Palmer to put the ball in the air a ton. There should be more than enough targets for Michael Floyd to have his best game of the 2015 season on the MNF stage as you rip the heart out of your DFS opponents’ chests. “Easy Juice.” That got a little dark…
- Ladarius Green ($5,1000/$2,900) is an obvious choice if a banged up Antonio Gates can’t play. However, I still recommend starting Green in DFS even if Gates manages to play. My thinking, Gates will likely be limited to red-zone work and the Chargers happen to be playing the Oakland Raiders, a team that has routinely hemorrhaged fantasy points to the tight end position. Targets should be plentiful as Phillip Rivers is in a bit of a groove right now and he threw a record setting 65 passes in Week 6. Not only is Gates dealing with an injury, but Keenan Allen and Stevie Johnson may be limited due to injury as well. Melvin Gordon is hurt too, so look for the Chargers to continue to pass to set up the run. Rivers mentioned that Green has earned a role in the offense even when Gates was expected to return and the Chargers have applied that belief. Green is a terrific, inexpensive and potentially under the radar option at tight end on Sunday.
- Selecting the right DFS DST has proven to be a challenge for me throughout the first 5 weeks of the season. So I gave myself a bye week in Week 6. I actually did well on my personal picks (Miami Dolphins) last week but none of you care about that. Remember, the premise of this column is to find value where the masses will overlook. So I recommend the Dallas Cowboys defense ($4,400/$2,500) on the road against the New York Giants. Why? Well, call it a gut feeling. Dallas has struggled to get off the field on 3rd down and force turnovers (only 2 INTs) but their biggest issue has been open field tackling. Coming out of the bye week I expect defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli to get the best out of his defense and rectify that issue. If you go inside the numbers Dallas has only allowed 7 passing TDs this season (Top 10) and the opposition is only averaging 3.9 yards per carry. More importantly Dallas is getting healthy on that side of the ball. Obviously Orlando Scandrick isn’t coming back but much maligned Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr have performed better than most have expected. Even rookie Byron Jones actually had moderate success in man-to-man coverage against Rob Gronkowski the last time we saw the Cowboys. Greg Hardy has made an immediate impact. Key defensive cogs Rolando McClain, Sean Lee and Randy Gregory are healthy. The defense is rounding into form and better performance is on the horizon. Additionally, the Cowboys have made a change at quarterback. While I don’t expect Matt Cassel to set the world on fire I do believe he will perform better than Brandon Weeden and demonstrate the ability to sustain a few drives and give the Dallas D an opportunity to catch their collective breath on sideline. Oh, and Odell Beckham Jr. is banged up, that doesn’t hurt at all.