DFS Week 10: By the Numbers

DFS Week 10: By the Numbers

By: Jamy Bechler @WinningDFS101

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the NFL main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite DFS Stud

Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,500 @ GB – This is DFS so anyone can fail. With that said, the most likely scenario is that CMC continues to dominate in a great matchup. He is still not expensive enough for me to fade him. In his last 16 games, he has been a top-four RB in 11 of those games. He is a monster. Pay the price to get the massive floor and slate-breaking ceiling.

Favorite DFS Core Play

Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): $7,300 @ CIN – He is averaging 27.7 DKFP this season. His floor is as good as it gets, and he also has a ceiling. He already had 33.6 DKFP against the Bengals in week 6 and that was despite throwing for zero touchdowns. He seems to be game-flow independent. The Bengals are still bad, and Lamar is still a stud. He will be the quarterback that I play the most this week.

Favorite DFS Value

David Montgomery, RB (CHI): $5,300 @ DET – He is only the 16th most-expensive running back on the slate but has played on 73% of the snaps and seen 48 touches the last two weeks. He is getting incredible volume lately and now goes up against a Lions defense that ranks as the second-worst run defense in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs. He has scored 22.6 and 27.7 DKFP the last two weeks.  

Favorite DFS Punt Play

Russell Gage, WR (ATL): $3,400 @ NO – I probably won’t play much of him but he does make for an interesting punt this week. Julio Jones is one of my all-time favorite players and Calvin Ridley is poised for a monster game in 2019 but if you want a cheap play to gamble on, then Gage might be the guy. Gage was plugged into Mohamed Sanu’s spot when he was traded to New England. In the one game that they’ve played since the trade, Gage caught seven balls for 58 yards and ran a route on 70% of Matt Schaub’s dropbacks.

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. Jaylen Samuels has 52 career receptions (as a running back). He has only played 366 snaps, which means that he catches a ball on 14% of the snaps that he plays.
  2. LeSean McCoy fumbled in the third quarter of his week 8 game against Green Bay and then only played six of the 59 snaps last week against Minnesota. Since that fumble, Damien Williams has played on more than 75% of the Chiefs snaps since then totaling 158 yards and 2 touchdowns on 21 touches.
  3. In the last three weeks, Aaron Jones has received 16 targets compared to Jamaal Williams’ 14 targets.
  4. After Kenyan Drake was traded and Mark Walton was suspended, Kalen Ballage becomes the only Miami running back that has ever taken an offensive snap in the NFL. The only other running backs on their roster are rookies that have only played special teams.
  5. According to Scott Barrett (Rotoworld), the five players with the best fantasy points per target ratio in the last two years are Tyler Lockett, Tyreek Hill, O.J. Howard, Kenny Stills, and Tyrell Williams.
  6. Even though Tyler Lockett had 18 targets last Sunday, that was only the third time in his career (72 games) that he has seen double-digit targets in a game.

Top Scoring DFS Players (Week 9)

  • Tyler Lockett, WR (SEA): 43.2
  • Russell Wilson, QB (SEA): 42.2
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 40.6
  • Mike Evans, WR (TB): 39.0
  • Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (SF): 31.8
  • Kenyan Drake, RB (ARI): 31.2
  • D.K. Metcalf, WR (SEA): 30.0
  • Matthew Stafford, QB (DET): 29.8
  • Marvin Jones, WR (DET): 29.6
  • Tyreek Hill, WR (KC): 29.5

Top Scoring DFS Players (Season by Position)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 27.7
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 32.7
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 24.9
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 24.4
  • Mike Evans, WR (TB): 23.4
  • Cooper Kupp, WR (LAR): 22.8
  • Chris Godwin, WR-flex (TB): 22.7
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): 18.6
  • New England Patriots DST: 19.7

Highest Owned Players (Week 9 Milly Maker)

  • Jaylen Samuels, RB (PIT): 50.6%
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 31.4%
  • Aaron Jones, RB (GB): 25.2%
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 24.4%
  • Le’Veon Bell, RB (NYJ): 22.4%
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 21.6%
  • Darren Waller, TE (OAK): 20.1%
  • Josh Jacobs, RB (OAK): 19.6%
  • Danny Amendola, WR (DET): 18.5%
  • Nick Chubb, RB (CLE): 18.3%

RB Touches (Week 9)

  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 28
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 27
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 25
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 25
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 24

RB Total Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 25.9
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 23.8
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 23.3
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 22.8
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 22.4
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 22.1
  • Marlon Mack (IND): 21.2
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 20.6
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 20.4
  • Alvin Kamara (NO): 19.8

Target Leaders (Week 9)

  • Tyler Lockett (SEA): 18
  • Mike Evans (TB): 16
  • Mohamed Sanu (NE): 14
  • Jarvis Landry (CLE): 13
  • Jaylen Samuels (PIT): 13

Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Michael Thomas (NO): 11.1
  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 10.9
  • Mike Evans (TB): 10.4
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): 10.2
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 10.2
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 10.0
  • Davante Adams (GB): 9.4
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 9.3
  • Julio Jones (ATL): 9.2
  • Allen Robinson (CHI): 8.9
  • Chris Godwin (TB): 8.9

Red Zone Target Leaders (Season Totals)

  • Julian Edelman (NE): 18
  • Mike Evans (TB): 16
  • Tyler Lockett (SEA): 15
  • Auden Tate (CIN): 13
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 13
  • Travis Kelce (KC): 13
  • James White (NE): 13

Red Zone Touches (Season Totals)

  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 40
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 39
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 31
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 31
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 31
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 31

Week 9 DFS DK Milly Maker Lineup

Week 9 DFS FD Sunday Millions Lineup

Highest Projected Scoring Game (50+ o/u)

  • Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Bucs (52.0 o/u)
  • Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (51.0 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games (43 – o/u)

  • Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns (40.5 o/u)
  • Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (41.5 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Running Backs

  • Alvin Kamara (NO): $8,200 vs. ATL (14.0 points)
  • Marlon Mack (IND): $7,000 vs. MIA (12.5 points)
  • Aaron Jones (GB): $7,400 vs. CAR (5.5 points)
  • Ronald Jones (TB): $4,300 vs. ARI (4.5 points)

Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Drew Brees (NO): $6,700 vs. ATL (32.5 points)
  • Jameis Winston (TB): $6,800 vs. ARI (28.25 points)
  • Brian Hoyer (IND): $5,900 vs. MIA (28.25 points)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): $7,000 @ TEN (27.75 points)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): $7,300 @ CIN (27.5 points)

Highest Projected Ownership (by position)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): $7,300 @ CIN (15-18%)
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,500 @ GB (30-33%)
  • Devin Singletary, RB (BUF): $5,000 @ CLE (17-19%)
  • Ronald Jones, RB (TB): $4,300 vs. ARI (17-19%)
  • Marlon Mack, RB-FLEX (IND): $7,000 vs. MIA (17-19%)
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): $8,300 vs. ATL (27-30%)
  • Mike Evans, WR (TB): $7,600 vs. ARI (17-20%)
  • Christian Kirk, WR (ARI): $5,200 @ TB (17-20%)
  • Jack Doyle, TE (IND): $3,600 vs. MIA (20-23%)
  • Cleveland Browns DST: $2,500 vs. BUF (13-15%)

DraftKings DFS Values (vs. FD price)

  • Curtis Samuel, WR (CAR):  34th DK ($4,600) vs. 22nd FD ($6,100)
  • Rhett Ellison, TE (NYG): 38th DK ($2,500) vs. 18th FD ($5,000)
  • Mike Gesicki, TE (MIA): 21st ($3,100) vs. 11th FD ($5,300)
  • Ronald Jones, RB (TB): 28th DK ($4,300) vs. 17th FD ($6,300)
  • Jared Goff, QB (LAR): 9th DK ($6,200) vs. 4th FD ($8,100)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers DST: 14th DK ($2,600) vs. 9th FD ($4,100)

FanDuel DFS Values (vs. DK price)

  • Jaylen Samuels, RB (PIT):  19th FD ($6,200) vs. 12th DK ($6,300)
  • Willie Snead, WR (BAL): 73rd FD ($4,600) vs. 43rd DK ($4,000)
  • Albert Wilson, WR (MIA): 86th FD ($4,500) vs. 61st DK ($3,300)
  • Eric Ebron, TE (IND): 23rd FD ($4,900) vs. 8th DK ($3,900)
  • Jamaal Williams, RB (GB): 17th DK ($5,200) vs. 26th DK ($5,600)
  • Green Bay Packers DST: 10th FD ($4,000) vs. 4th DK ($3,200)
  • Brian Hoyer, QB (IND): 16th FD ($7,100) vs. 12th DK ($5,900)

Notable DK Salary Increases

  • Jaylen Samuels, RB (PIT): $6,300 vs. LAR (+2,300)
  • Mark Ingram, RB (BAL): $7,100 @ CIN (+2,100)
  • Brian Hoyer, QB (IND): $5,900 vs. MIA (+1,600)
  • Zach Pascal, WR (IND): $5,300 vs MIA (+1,200)
  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): $7,300 @ CIN (+1,100)
  • Golden Tate, WR (NYG): $5,900 @ NYJ (+900)
  • Damien Williams, RB (KC): $4,900 @ TEN (+900)
  • Jameis Winston, QB (TB): $6,800 vs. ARI (+700)

Notable DK Salary Decreases

  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR (GB): $4,500 vs. CAR (-1,200)
  • Le’Veon Bell, RB (NYJ): $6,900 vs. NYG (-800)
  • Robby Anderson, WR (NYJ): $4,700 vs. NYG (-800)
  • Ty Johnson, RB (DET): $4,100 @ CHI (-800)
  • Travis Kelce, TE (KC): $6,400 @ TEN (-500)
  • Matthew Stafford, QB (DET); $6,400 @ CHI (-400)
  • Aaron Rodgers, QB (GB): $6,600 vs. CAR (-300)

Five DFS Favorites Under 5K

  • DeVante Parker, WR (MIA): $4,800 @ IND
  • Curtis Samuel, WR (CAR): $4,600 vs. GB
  • Ronald Jones, RB (TB): $4,300 vs. ARI
  • Darius Slayton, WR (NYG): $4,200 @ NYJ
  • Russell Gage, WR (ATL): $3,400 @ NO

Princess Leia Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life. On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. I like volume, opportunity, and salary value. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games.  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): $7,300 @ CIN
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,500 @ GB
  • David Montgomery, RB (CHI): $5,300 vs. DET
  • Christian Kirk, WR (ARI): $5,200 @ TB
  • Zach Pascal, WR (IND): $5,300 vs. MIA
  • Calvin Ridley, WR (ATL): $5,400 @ NO
  • Jack Doyle, TE (IND): $3,600 vs. MIA
  • Tyler Boyd, WR-FLEX (CIN): $4,700 vs. BAL
  • Pittsburgh Steelers DST: $2,600 vs. LAR

Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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