DFS Week 11: By the Numbers

DFS

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the DFS main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite DFS Stud

Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,500 vs. ATL – Nobody gives you the weekly safety and slate-breaking upside like CMC. He has one of his best matchups of the year. I will continue to play him until he has two bad games in a row or is priced above $11,000.

Favorite DFS Core Play

Brian Hill, RB (ATL): $4,800 @ CAR – There are plenty of ways that he can fail this week. He did, after all, begin the year as the third-string running back and it’s not like Atlanta has been tearing it up this year on offense, in particular with the running back position. However, it is difficult to find spots where a guy appears to be the only option? Last week, he got 20 rushing attempts and finished with 14.1 DFKP. I will probably hit the lock button on him in cash and fade him for tournaments. I think his floor is good, but I worry about his limited ceiling at anticipated high ownership. He’s not a player that will automatically produce fantasy goodness, but he can return value.

Favorite DFS Value

Kyle Allen, QB (CAR): $5,300 vs ATL – I will probably try to find a way to get Lamar Jackson or Deshaun Watson into my lineups but if I pay down at quarterback, I like Allen this week. He is priced low compared to the other quarterbacks on the slate. He is probably better suited for cash games because I think his ceiling isn’t as high as others, but he’s returned value in four of his seven games this year. I expect him to score 18-20 fantasy points this week and he could even get in the mid-20’s since this is such a good matchup. I also like all of his weapons (DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, Greg Olsen, and CMC) and this potential shootout-type game environment.

Favorite DFS Punt Play

Deebo Samuel, WR (SF): $4,000 vs. ARI – He could easily be a core play for me because I will be using him in most of my lineups. I am listing him as a punt play because he is cheap and hasn’t produced regularly, as there are questions about him. What isn’t up for debate is that he turned 11 targets into 22.2 DKFP last week and looks to be the 49ers top receiving weapon this week with Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle hurt. The matchup is also prime. It should be hard for him to fail at this price.

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. Tyler Boyd has the most targets (91) of any player this season with one or less receiving touchdowns. D.J. Moore is second with 79 targets. (statistic courtesy of RotoWorld’s Ian Hartitz)
  2. In Michael Thomas’ six games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he has averaged nearly 10 receptions for 120 yards. He also has three touchdowns.
  3. Mike Evans leads the NFL in air yards with 1,391. The next closest is Keenan Allen with 1,124. There are six wide receivers with at least 1,000 air yards this season.
  4. Matt Ryan has thrown for 300+ yards or passed for multiple touchdowns in seven straight games against the Panthers.
  5. Every play but one (TE) on the winning FanDuel Sunday Millions roster had ownership in the double-digits.
  6. The only wide receivers to have at least 55 receiving yards in at least seven games this season are Michael Thomas (8), Courtland Sutton (8), Tyler Boyd (7), John Brown (7), Mike Evans (7), Allen Robinson (7), and DeVante Parker (7). Statistic courtesy of Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros.

Top Scoring DFS Players (Week 10)

  • Christian Kirk, WR (ARI): 40.8
  • Darius Slayton, WR (NYG): 37.1
  • Derrick Henry, RB (TEN): 36.1
  • Tyreek Hill, WR (KC): 36.0
  • Amari Cooper, WR (DAL): 34.7
  • Daniel Jones, QB (NYG): 34.3
  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 33.4
  • Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC): 32.8
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 31.3
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 31.2

Top Scoring DFS Players (Season by Position)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 28.3
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 32.3
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 25.6
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 25.2
  • Mike Evans, WR (TB): 22.2
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 21.6
  • Aaron Jones, RB-FLEX (GB): 22.1
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): 17.9
  • New England Patriots DST: 19.7

Highest Owned DFS Players (Week 10 $100 Milly Maker)

  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 44.6%
  • David Montgomery, RB (CHI): 42.8%
  • Christian Kirk, WR (ARI): 24.7%
  • Chicago Bears DST: 24.6%
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 23.2%
  • Devin Singletary, RB (BUF): 22.3%
  • Damien Williams, RB (KC): 21.9%
  • Michael Gesicki, TE (MIA): 21.0%
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 21.0%
  • Mike Evans, WR (TB): 20.2%

RB Touches (Week 10)

  • Joe Mixon (CIN): 30
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 26
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 25
  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 23
  • Melvin Gordon (LAC): 22

RB Total Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 20.6
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 20.3
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 20.0
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 19.8
  • Marlon Mack (IND): 19.8
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 19.3
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 19.3
  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 18.7
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 18.7
  • Carlos Hyde (HOU): 16.6

Target Leaders (Week 10)

  • Tyreek Hill (KC): 19
  • Amari Cooper (DAL): 14
  • Darius Slayton (NYG): 14
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 14
  • Chris Godwin (TB): 12
  • Gerald Everett (LAR): 12
  • Odell Beckham (CLE): 12
  • Eric Ebron (IND): 12
  • DJ Moore (CAR): 11
  • Deebo Samuel (SF): 11
  • John Brown (BUF): 11

Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Michael Thomas (NO): 11.4
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): 10.2
  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 10.1
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 10.0
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 10.0
  • Mike Evans (TB): 9.9
  • Davante Adams (GB): 9.5
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 9.5
  • Chris Godwin (TB): 9.2
  • Julio Jones (ATL): 9.2

Red Zone Target Leaders (Season Totals)

  • Julian Edelman (NE): 18
  • Mike Evans (TB): 16
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 15
  • Tyler Lockett (SEA): 15
  • Auden Tate (CIN): 14
  • Travis Kelce (KC): 14

Red Zone Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 4.6
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 3.9
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 3.7
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 3.7
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 3.7

Highest Projected Scoring Game (50+ o/u)

  • Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions (52.5 o/u)
  • Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (51.5 o/u)
  • New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs (50.0 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games (42 – o/u)

  • New York Jets @ Washington Redskins (38.5 o/u)
  • Denver Broncos @ Minnesota Vikings (40.5 o/u)
  • Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (41.0 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Running Backs

  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): $6,900 vs. CIN (11.0 points)
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): $8,900 vs. DEN (10.5 points)
  • Tevin Coleman (SF): $6,100 vs. ARI (10.5 points)
  • Mark Ingram (BAL): $6,600 vs. HOU (4.5 points)
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): $10,500 vs. ATL (4.0 points)

Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Derek Carr, QB (OAK): $6,100 vs. CIN (29.75 points)
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): $6,700 @ DET (28.0 points)
  • Drew Brees (NO): $6,900 @ TB (27.75 points)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): $7,700 vs. HOU (27.75 points)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): $6,700 vs. ARI (27.5 points)
  • Kyle Allen (CAR): $5,300 vs. ATL (26.75 points)

Highest Projected DFS Ownership (by position)

  • Derek Carr, QB (OAK): $6,100 vs. CIN (13-15%)
  • Brian Hill, RB (ATL): $4,800 @ CAR (45-50%)
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,500 vs. ATL (28-30%)
  • Julio Jones, WR (ATL): $7,500 @ CAR (19-22%)
  • Tyrell Williams, WR (OAK): $5,400 vs. CIN (17-20%)
  • Deebo Samuel, WR (SF): $4,000 vs. ARI (17-20%)
  • Darren Waller, TE (OAK): $5,500 vs. CIN (24-27%)
  • Josh Jacobs, RB-FLEX (OAK): $6,900 vs. CIN (19-22%)
  • San Francisco 49ers DST: $4,000 vs. ARI (14-17%)

DraftKings Values (vs. FD price)

  • Kyle Allen, QB (CAR): 21st DK ($5,300) vs. 16th FD ($7,200)
  • Duke Johnson, RB (HOU):  41st DK ($4,000) vs. 24th FD ($5,900)
  • Miles Sanders, RB (PHI):  40th DK ($4,100) vs. 30th FD ($5,600)
  • Russell Gage, WR (ATL):  74th DK ($3,300) vs. 47th FD ($5,300)
  • Curtis Samuel, WR (CAR): 28th DK ($5,300) vs. 19th FD ($6,300)
  • New Orleans Saints DST: 12th DK ($2,900) vs. 5th FD ($4,800)

FanDuel Values (vs. DK price)

  • Derek Carr, QB (OAK):  14th FD ($7,400) vs. 11th DK ($6,100)
  • Jameis Winston, QB (TB): 11th FD ($7,600) vs. 7th DK ($6,500)
  • Leonard Fournette, RB (JAC):  9th FD ($7,200) vs. 4th DK ($7,900)
  • John Brown, WR (BUF):   26th FD ($5,900) vs. 14th DK ($6,400)
  • Terry McLaurin, WR (WAS): 37th FD ($5,500) vs. 25th DK ($5,600)
  • Calvin Ridley, WR (ATL):  36th FD ($5,500) vs. 26th DK ($5,500)
  • D.J. Moore, WR (CAR):  24th FD ($6,000) vs. 19th DK ($5,900)
  • Greg Olsen, TE (CAR): 12th FD ($5,100) vs. 8th DK ($3,900)
  • Dallas Cowboys DST: 10th FD ($4,100) vs. 3rd DK ($3,600)

Notable DK Salary Increases

  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): $9,900 @ TB (+1,600)
  • Josh Jacobs, RB (OAK): $6,900 vs. CIN (+1,200)
  • Ezekiel Elliott, RB (DET): $9,000 @ DET (+1,200)
  • Mark Andrews, TE (BAL): $6,100 vs. HOU (+900)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (SF): $6,700 vs. ARI (+700)

Notable DK Salary Decreases

  • Latavius Murray, RB (NO): $6,200 @ TB (-1,100)
  • Alvin Kamara, RB (NO): $7,400 @ TB (-800)
  • David Johnson, RB (ARI): $5,100 @ SF (-600)
  • Darren Waller, TE (OAK): $5,500 vs. CIN (-600)
  • Larry Fitzgerald, WR (ARI): $5,000 @ SF (-500)

Five DFS Favorites Under 5K

  • Brian Hill, RB (ATL): $4,800 @ CAR
  • Dede Westbrook, WR (JAC): $4,500 vs. IND
  • Deebo Samuel, WR (SF): $4,000 vs. ARI
  • Demaryius Thomas, WR (NYJ): $3,900 @ WAS
  • Russell Gage, WR (ATL): $3,300 @ CAR

Princess Leia Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life. On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. I like volume, opportunity, and salary value. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games.  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): $6,200 @ CAR
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): $8,900 vs. DEN
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,500 vs. ATL
  • Deebo Samuel, WR (SF): $4,000 vs. ARI
  • Mohamed Sanu, WR (NE): $5,100 @ PHI
  • Demaryius Thomas, WR (NYJ): $3,900 @ WAS
  • Dawson Knox, TE (BUF): $3,000 @ MIA
  • Brian Hill, RB-FLEX (ATL): $4,800 @ CAR
  • New England Patriots DST: $3,500 @ PHI

Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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@WinningDFS101

Author: @WinningDFS101