DFS Week 12: By the Numbers

By: Jamy Bechler @WinningDFS101

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the DFS main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite DFS Stud

Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,500 @ NO – He is the man until he has two bad games in a row or goes above $11,000.

Favorite DFS Core Play

Jeff Driskel, QB (DET): $5,500 @ WAS – If I can get up to Jameis Winston at quarterback, then I will probably go that route as he is in the best game environment of the day and he has five straight games of 20+ DKFP. He might not be a good real-life quarterback, but he is good in fantasy. With the lack of legitimate value on this slate, I will probably need the $700 in savings that Driskell represents. Once again, it doesn’t really matter if he is good or not, the Lions’ strength is their receiving weapons and the Redskins have a shaky secondary. He should return value at this price with the opportunity for another ceiling game. He had 19.1 DKFP in his first game at Chicago and then 27.5 DKFP last week against Dallas. Washington just gave up four passing touchdowns to Sam Darnold last week.

Favorite DFS Value

Kareem Hunt, RB (CLE): $5,600 vs. MIA – This actually could be considered a punt play because there are a lot of questions still about his effectiveness and role in Cleveland but so far so good. This is primarily a value play on FanDuel where he is only the 26th most-expensive running back, compared to him being the 15th most-expensive on DraftKings. Miami is bad and I could easily see Kareem Hunt having a big day. At the very least, he has essentially returned value each of the last two weeks getting a total of 17 targets.  

Favorite DFS Punt Play

Taylor Gabriel, WR (CHI): $4,200 vs. NYG – Admittedly, I’ve been heavy on Gabriel twice before when he has broken the slate in the past, so I am always on the lookout for his next possible explosion. He is a very poor man’s version of Tyreek Hill and former Chiefs OC Matt Nagy tends to use him in the Hill role. Last week he saw 14 targets because Allen Robinson was being shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. He has had 13.8 and 12.7 DKFP the last two weeks. Nothing great but certainly nothing that will hurt your lineup. This week, I expect Janoris Jenkins to shadow ARob and Matt Nagy might dial up a similar game plan like last week. This is a great matchup for Gabriel because he should see plenty of DeAndre Baker, who has been taken to the woodshed all year by receivers.

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. After giving up 25 touchdowns the first eight games, the Falcons defense has not allowed a touchdown on the road against the Saints and Panthers the last two weeks.
  2. In the first seven weeks of the season, Baker Mayfield was 10-30 for only three touchdowns and three interceptions in the Red Zone. In the last three games, he is 10-18 with five touchdowns and zero interceptions.
  3. This could be a Mount St. Julio explosion week. According to Ian Hartitz of Rotoworld, this is the third season in Julio Jones’ career in which he has gone seven straight regular season games without a touchdown. In 2014, his next three games were 5-68-1, 10-189-1, and 11-259-1. Last year, his three games after his seven-game drought were 7-121-1, 7-107-1, and 6-118-1.
  4. Jamison Crowder has been targeted by Sam Darnold on 24% of his throws, which is ninth best in the NFL. He is also averaging 8.4 targets in the seven games that Darnold has played.
  5. Despite the results not being there for Miles Sanders, he still saw a massive uptick in usage last week. He played 85% of the snaps, ran 43 routes on 48 of Wentz’s dropbacks, and he had 61% of the team’s carries. (stats according to EstablishTheRun’s Adam Levitan)
  6. The Carolina Panthers might have an aggressive defense, but they are not good in the Red Zone. Opponents have come away with touchdowns on 65% of their trips to the RZ against the Panthers this year. This week, they get Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara.

Top Scoring DFS Players (Week 11)

  • John Brown, WR (BUF): 37.7
  • Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (SF): 34.6
  • Dak Prescott, QB (DAL): 34.5
  • Josh Allen, QB (BUF): 33.8
  • D.J. Chark, WR (JAC): 33.4
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 33.1
  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 32.7
  • Calvin Ridley, WR (ATL): 31.3
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 28.4
  • Jeff Driskel, QB (DET): 27.4

Top Scoring DFS Players (Season by Position)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 28.7
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 32.4
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 24.7
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 25.5
  • Mike Evans, WR (TB): 21.0
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 20.8
  • Aaron Jones, RB-FLEX (GB): 22.1
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): 17.9
  • New England Patriots DST: 18.8

RB Touches (Week 11)

  • Todd Gurley (LAR): 28
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 27
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 26
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 25
  • Alvin Kamara (NO) 23
  • Kenyan Drake (ARI): 22

RB Total Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 25.8
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 23.5
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 22.9
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 22.8
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 20.7
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 22.2
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 20.8
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 20.7
  • Marlon Mack (IND): 20.4
  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 18.7

Target Leaders (Week 11)

  • D.J. Chark (JAC): 15
  • D.J. Moore (CAR): 15
  • Taylor Gabriel (CHI): 14
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 14
  • John Brown (BUF): 14
  • Cameron Brate (TB): 14

Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Michael Thomas (NO): 11.3
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): 10.2
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 10.0
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 9.7
  • Mike Evans (TB): 9.7
  • Davante Adams (GB): 9.5
  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 9.4
  • D.J. Moore (CAR): 9.4
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 9.3
  • Julio Jones (ATL): 9.1

Red Zone Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Tim Patrick (DEN): 2.0
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 1.9
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 1.8
  • Mike Evans (TB): 1.7
  • Auden Tate (CIN): 1.6

Red Zone Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 4.7
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 4.1
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 3.9
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 3.8
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 3.7
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 3.7

Week 11 DFS DK Milly Maker Lineup

Week 11 DFS FD Sunday Millions Lineup

Highest Projected Scoring Game (50+ o/u)

  • Tampa Bay Bucs @ Atlanta Falcons (51.0 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games (42 – o/u)

  • Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (37.5 o/u)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (38.0 o/u)
  • New York Giants @ Chicago Bears (39.5 o/u)
  • Detroit Lions @ Washington Redskins (40.5 o/u)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (41.5 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Workhorse Running Backs

  • Nick Chubb (CLE): $8,100 vs. MIA (11 points)
  • Alvin Kamara (NO): $8,200 vs. CAR (10 points)
  • David Montgomery (CHI): $5,500 vs. NYG (6 points)
  • Devin Singletary (BUF): $5,400 vs. DEN (4 points)
  • Brian Hill (ATL): $4,900 vs. TB (4 points)

Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Drew Brees (NO): $6,600 vs. CAR (28.5 points)
  • Baker Mayfield (CLE): $5,900 vs. MIA (28.25 points)
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): $6,700 vs. TB (27.5 points)

Highest Projected Ownership (by position)

  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): $6,700 vs. TB (15-17%)
  • Le’Veon Bell, RB (NYJ): $6,400 vs. OAK (24-26%)
  • Alvin Kamara, RB (NO): $8,200 vs. CAR (23-25%)
  • Julio Jones, WR (ATL): $8,000 vs. TB (24-26%)
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): $9,300 vs. CAR (20-23%)
  • Odell Beckham, WR (CLE): $7,000 vs. MIA (16-18%)
  • Zach Ertz, TE (PHI): $6,000 vs. SEA (14-16%)
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB-FLEX (CAR): $10,500 @ NO (18-20%)
  • Denver Broncos DST: $2,400 @ BUF (17-20%)

DraftKings Values (vs. FD price)

  • Dak Prescott, QB (DAL): 9th DK ($6,000) vs. 3rd FD ($8,100)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB (MIA):  21st DK ($5,000) vs. 16th FD ($7,100)
  • Tim Patrick, WR (DEN): 104th DK ($3,000) vs. 42nd FD ($5,400)
  • Bo Scarbrough, RB (DET): 37th DK ($4,200) vs. 15th FD ($6,400)
  • Allen Hurns, WR (MIA): 63rd DK ($3,300) vs. 54th FD ($5,100)
  • Ben Watson, TE (NE): 23rd DK ($3,100) vs. 10th FD ($5,300)
  • Detroit Lions DST: 10th DK ($3,100) vs. 2nd FD ($5,000)

FanDuel Values (vs. DK price)

  • Derek Carr, QB (OAK):  11th FD ($7,400) vs. 7th DK ($6,100)
  • Mason Rudolph, QB (PIT):  19th FD ($6,900) vs. 15th DK ($5,500)
  • Cleveland Browns DST: 9th FD ($4,500) vs. 2nd DK ($3,800)
  • Latavius Murray, RB (NO): 33rd FD ($5,400) vs. 13th DK ($6,100)
  • Terry McLaurin, WR (WAS): 33rd FD ($5,800) vs. 21st DK ($6,000)
  • D.J. Moore, WR (CAR): 25th FD ($6,400) vs. 13th DK ($6,400)
  • Kareem Hunt, RB (CLE): 25th FD ($5,600) vs. 15th DK ($5,600)
  • Greg Olsen, TE (CAR): 15th FD ($5,100) vs. 8th DK ($4,100)

Notable DK Salary Increases

  • Ryan Griffin, TE (NYJ): $4,200 vs. OAK (+1,300)
  • Kareem Hunt, RB (CLE): $5,600 vs. MIA (+1,300)
  • Zach Ertz, TE (PHI): $6,000 vs. SEA (+1,000)
  • Allen Robinson, WR (CHI): $6,500 vs. NYG (+1,000)
  • Jaylen Samuels, RB (PIT): $7,200 @ CIN (+1,000)
  • Calvin Ridley, WR (ATL): $6,500 vs. TB (+1,000)
  • Jeff Driskel, QB (DET): $5,500 @ WAS (+900)

Notable DK Salary Decreases

  • Ezekiel Elliott, RB (DAL): $7,500 @ NE (-1,500)
  • Amari Cooper, WR (DAL): $6,600 @ NE (-1,100)
  • Le’Veon Bell, RB (NYJ): $6,400 vs. OAK (-800)
  • Julian Edelman, WR (NE): $6,900 vs. DAL (-700)
  • Dak Prescott, QB (DAL): $6,000 @ NE (-700)

Five DFS Favorites Under 5K

  • Sterling Shepard, WR (NYG): $4,900 at CHI
  • Dwayne Haskins, QB (WAS): $4,900 vs. DET
  • Demaryius Thomas, WR (NYJ): $3,800 vs. OAK
  • Allen Hurns, WR (MIA): $3,300 vs. CLE
  • Tim Patrick, WR (DEN): $3,000 @ BUF

Princess Leia Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life. On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. I like volume, opportunity, and salary value. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games.  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

  • Jameis Winston, QB (TB): $6,200 @ ATL
  • Derrick Henry, RB (TEN): $6,900 vs. JAC
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,500
  • Tim Patrick, WR (DEN): $3,000 @ BUF
  • Calvin Ridley, WR (ATL): $6,500 vs. TB
  • Tyrell Williams, WR (OAK): $5,900 @ NYJ
  • Ben Watson, TE (NE): $3,100 vs. DAL
  • David Montgomery, RB-FLEX (CHI): $5,500
  • Denver Broncos DST: $2,400 @ BUF

Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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@WinningDFS101

Author: @WinningDFS101