DFS Week 13: By the Numbers

By: Jamy Bechler @WinningDFS101

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the DFS main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite DFS Stud

Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,500 vs. WAS– Go back and look at past articles. He is the man until he has two bad games in a row or goes above $11,000. We are paying for “guaranteed” floor and slate-breaking ceiling potential.

Favorite DFS Core Play

Sterling Shepard, WR (NYG): $4,900 vs. GB – Golden Tate and Evan Engram are both out this week so that leaves Shepard as the main pass-catching option in the middle of the field. He has nine targets in each of the past four games that he has played in. He is underpriced based upon his expected volume this week and for his ceiling (30.1 DKFP this year against Tampa Bay). He will be in the majority of my lineups.

Favorite DFS Value

Jack Doyle, TE (IND): $3,300 vs. TEN – He has not had a good year statistically speaking. This Colts offense has been difficult to figure out from game to game. However, with Eric Ebron making a business decision and announcing this week that he was shutting it down, that makes Doyle the main man at the tight end position. Add in the fact that Marlon Mack and T.Y. Hilton is out, and Doyle should get a lot of opportunity. He’s only had one game of more than five targets this year, but we’ve seen what he can do in the past. The price is too low for a guy that is really the only established NFL pass catcher that is healthy for the Colts.    

Favorite DFS Punt Play

Andy Dalton, QB (CIN): $4,700 vs. NYJ – He’s back as the starting QB and I will be playing him in a number of my lineups. The salary I save by playing him opens up so much more with my roster construction. He might have just got benched but it is not entirely his fault the Bengals have been losing. The Bengals caught the DK pricing algorithm off-guard this week by announcing the change after pricing came out. At this price, he would have returned value in seven of his eight games this year. Four of those games were 20+ DKFP performances.

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. Six quarterbacks have earned the 300-yard bonus on DK this year. Nick Foles is value priced at $5,700 with a stable of receiving weapons.
  2. Chris Conley has seen seven targets in five straight games and this week gets Tampa Bay, who have allowed 12 different receivers to gain 80+ yards this season.
  3. D.J. Moore has seen at least eight targets in seven straight games.
  4. Davante Adams has been targeted at least 10 times in all three games since his injury. This week, he gets a Giants secondary that is in the bottom-five in nearly all passing categories.
  5. In the last two games as a starter, Miles Sanders has seen 85% of the snaps, 64% of the carries, and all of the RB targets yet has failed to capitalize, earning only 18.3 totals DKFP. (stats courtesy of Adam Levitan from Establish the Run).
  6. Robert Woods and Leonard Fournette have the most targets without catching a touchdown pass this season. Woods has 80 targets and Fournette has 70.

Top Scoring DFS Players (Week 12)

  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 40.4
  • Jarvis Landry, WR (CLE): 39.8
  • Leonard Fournette, RB (JAC): 36.9
  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 36.2
  • D.J. Moore, WR (CAR): 34.4
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 34.3
  • Ryan Tannehill, QB (TEN): 33.3
  • Derrick Henry, RB (TEN): 32.5
  • Sam Darnold, QB (NYJ): 31.2
  • Jameis Winston, QB (TB): 29.3

Top Scoring DFS Players (Season by Position)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 29.4
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 32.5
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 24.7
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 25.2
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 22.6
  • Mike Evans, WR (TB): 19.9
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): 20.6
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): 17.9
  • New England Patriots DST: 17.8

RB Touches (Week 12)

  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 33
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 31
  • Jonathan Williams (IND): 29
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 25
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 24

RB Total Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 26.3
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 23.8
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 23.5
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 22.9
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 22.2
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 21.7
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 20.4
  • Marlon Mack (IND): 20.4
  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 20.0
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 19.9

Target Leaders (Week 12)

  • Calvin Ridley (ATL): 14
  • Zach Ertz (PHI): 14
  • Jarvis Landry (CLE): 13
  • Davante Adams (GB): 12
  • Terry McLaurin (WAS): 12
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 12
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 12

Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Michael Thomas (NO): 11.1
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 10.2
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): 10.2
  • Davante Adams (GB): 9.9
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 9.8
  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 9.5
  • Mike Evans (TB): 9.5
  • D.J. Moore (CAR): 9.4
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 9.3
  • Julio Jones (ATL): 9.1

Red Zone Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Julian Edelman (NE): 1.8
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 1.6
  • Jarvis Landry (CLE): 1.5
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 1.5
  • Mike Evans (TB): 1.5

Red Zone Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 4.5
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 4.4
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 4.1
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 3.9
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 3.7
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 3.7

Week 12 DK Milly Maker Lineup

Week 12 FD Sunday Millions Lineup

Highest Projected Scoring Game (50+ o/u)

  • Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (51.0 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games (42 – o/u)

  • Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (38.5 o/u)
  • Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (39.0 o/u)
  • Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers (39.5 o/u)
  • NY Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals (41.5 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Workhorse Running Backs

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): $10,500 vs. WAS (10 points)
  • Mark Ingram (BAL): $6,000 vs. SF (5.5 points)

Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): $7,400 vs. OAK (30.5 points)
  • Carson Wentz (PHI): $5,800 @ MIA (27.5 points)

Highest Projected DFS Ownership (by position)

  • Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC): $7,400 vs. OAK (15-18%)
  • Jonathan Williams, RB (IND): $5,300 vs. TEN (24-26%)
  • Miles Sanders, RB (PHI): $5,400 @ MIA (24-26%)
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB-FLEX (CAR): $10,500 vs. WAS (22-24%)
  • Davante Adams, WR (GB): $7,000 @ NYG (29-31%)
  • Mike Evans, WR (TB): $6,900 @ JAC (22-24%)
  • D.J. Moore, WR (CAR): $6,800 vs. WAS (20-23%)
  • Jack Doyle, TE (IND): $3,300 vs. TEN (28-30%)
  • Cleveland Browns DST: $2,600 @ PIT (17-19%)

DraftKings Values (vs. FD price)

  • Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (SF): 13th DK ($5,600) vs. 4th FD ($8,000)
  • Benny Snell, RB (PIT): 30th DK ($4,700) vs. 22nd ($6,100)
  • Jonathan Williams, RB (IND): 21st DK ($5,300) vs. 14th ($6,800)
  • Phillip Lindsay, RB (DEN): 24th DK ($5,000) vs. 19th FD ($6,300)
  • Tim Patrick, WR (DEN): 110th DK ($3,000) vs. 55th FD ($5,100)
  • Brandin Cooks, WR (LAR): 28th DK $5,200) vs. 13th FD ($6,700)
  • Chris Conley, WR (JAC): 39th DK ($4,500) vs. 28th FD ($6,000)
  • Tyler Higbee, TE (LAR): 56th DK ($2,500) vs. 11th FD ($5,500)
  • Cleveland Browns DST: 17th DK ($2,600) vs. 5th FD ($4,600)

FanDuel Values (vs. DK price)

  • Jameis Winston, QB (TB): 7th FD ($7,600) vs. 5th DK ($6,300)
  • Tevin Coleman, RB (SF): 21st FD ($$6,100) vs. 14th DK ($5,900)
  • Miles Sanders, RB (PHI): 28th FD ($5,800) vs. 20th DK ($5,400)
  • Kareem Hunt, RB (CLE):  24th FD ($5,900) vs. 19th DK ($5,500)
  • Nelson Agholor, WR (PHI): FD ($4,800) vs. DK ($4,400)
  • Terry McLaurin, WR (WAS): 32nd FD ($5,800) vs. 20th DK ($5,600)
  • Marquise Brown, WR (BAL): 36th FD ($5,600) vs. 26th DK ($5,300)
  • Greg Olsen, TE (CAR): 17th FD ($5,100) vs. 9th DK ($4,400)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers DST: 16th FD ($3,700) vs. 4th DK ($3,500)

Notable DK Salary Increases

  • Jonathan Williams, RB (IND): $5,300 vs. TEN (+1,100)
  • Le’Veon Bell, RB (NYJ): $7,200 @ CIN (+800)
  • Jared Goff, QB (LAR): $6,000 @ ARI (+800)
  • Zach Ertz, TE (PHI): $6,700 @ MIA (+700)
  • Derrick Henry, RB (TEN): $7,600 @ IND (+700)

Notable DK Salary Decreases

  • Jaylen Samuels, RB (PIT): $5,700 vs. CLE (-1,500)
  • Ross Dwelley, TE (SF): $3,500 @ BAL (-800)
  • David Carr, QB (OAK): $5,500 @ KC (-600)

Five DFS Favorites Under 5K

  • Sterling Shepard, WR (NYG): $4,900 vs. GB
  • Curtis Samuel, WR (CAR): $4,800 vs. WAS
  • Chris Conley, WR (JAC): $4,500 vs. TB
  • Demaryius Thomas, WR (NYG): $3,600 @ CIN
  • Jack Doyle, TE (IND): $3,300 vs. TEN

Princess Leia Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life. On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. I like volume, opportunity, and salary value. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games.  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

  • Andy Dalton, QB (CIN): $4,700 vs. NYJ
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,500 vs. WAS
  • Miles Sanders, RB (PHI): $5,400 @ MIA
  • Davante Adams, WR (GB): $7,000 @ NYG
  • Tyler Boyd, WR (CIN): $5,500 vs. NYJ
  • Sterling Shepard, WR (NYG): $4,900 vs. GB
  • Jack Doyle, TE (IND): $3,300 vs. TEN
  • DeVante Parker, WR (MIA): $5,700 vs. PHI
  • Baltimore Ravens DST: $2,800 vs. SF

Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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