DFS Week 14: By the Numbers

By: Jamy Bechler @WinningDFS101

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the DFS main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite DFS Stud

Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,300 @ ATL – I’ve been saying that I will ride with CMC until he gets to $11,000 or disappoints twice in a row. He had a surprisingly poor performance last week but still scored 17 DKFP. That’s his floor. This week he is in a good matchup with Atlanta, who he scored 33 DKFP against just a few weeks ago (and that was without scoring a touchdown).

He is still the best overall play on the board because his floor is still great, and his likely ceiling is higher than others (he has put together the most 40+ fantasy performances this year). The only thing that concerns me about this game is uncertainty with the firing of Ron Rivera this week. Will the Panthers be committed to feeding McCaffrey the ball over and over again? I will still be playing him in the majority of my lineups.

Favorite DFS Core Play

D.J. Chark, WR (JAC): $6,200 vs. LAC – He was one of the most heavily owned players last week and so he disappointed a lot of people with his 2-47-0 stat line. I expect Chark to be very low-owned. But this was just a terrible game for Jacksonville. Chark now gets Gardner Minshew back under center and they seemed to have a great connection this season. So good, in fact, that Chark is actually the sixth best wide receiver in terms of fantasy scoring average. That is even after two sub-par games. That makes him the most underpriced player on the slate relative to his price and scoring average.

He is the 29th priced wide receiver on FD and 21st on DK but is averaging the sixth-most fantasy points (14.1 FDFP and 17.3 DKFP) at the position. He’s too cheap with too much upside to ignore.

Favorite DFS Value

Alvin Kamara, RB (NO): $7,000 vs. SF – $7,000 is the lowest he’s been priced since his rookie season. He has not scored a touchdown since Week 3 but still managed to average 15 DKFP in those seven games. At this discounted salary, you are still getting a decent floor with the upside if he can find the end zone. The last time he scored a touchdown in Week 3, he ended up with 37.1 DFKP. He is also $7,600 on FanDuel, which is still too cheap.

Favorite DFS Punt Play

Kyle Rudolph, TE (MIN): $4,800 (FD) vs. DET – I normally focus on DraftKings but this is a FanDuel play that I plan on playing a ton because it is a great play at a bargain basement price. Adam Thielen is currently doubtful. Rudolph has six touchdowns in his last six games, including getting into the end zone in four straight games. He has seen at least five targets and double-digit fantasy points in five of his last six games.

Earlier this year against the Lions, Rudolph caught five passes for 58 yards and scored a touchdown. The tight end position is never safe, but I’ll take a likely double-digit performance from a guy that is priced as only the 26th most-expensive at the position. However, he’s not an option on DK, where he is the eight most-expensive tight end. Duke Johnson, at $3,900, coming off a 20.0 DKFP performance, is my favorite on DraftKings.

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. Drew Brees has never been this cheap ($5,900) at home. In the last five years, he has averaged nearly 6.5 DKFP more at home than he has on the road. He has had three healthy “non-Atlanta” home games this year and in those games, he has had 26.4, 28.9, and 24.8 DKFP.
  2. From 2017 to the present, Tyreek Hill’s 16 touchdowns on balls thrown 20+yards downfield are the most of any player. Robby Anderson, Stefon Diggs, and Antonio Brown has 12 each (stat courtesy of PFF’s Scott Barrett).
  3. Will Fuller has the best fantasy performance of the year with 56.7 DKFP in Week 5 but that was his only slate-breaking game. In total, there have been 24 games in which players have scored at least 40 DKFP. Christian McCaffrey leads the way with three. Russell Wilson, Mike Evans, Aaron Jones, and Chris Godwin are the only other players that have reached this milestone twice this season.
  4. Mike Williams scored 10 touchdowns on 66 targets last year but has yet to score this year on 69 targets (stat courtesy of Establish the Run’s Adam Levitan).
  5. Seven of the top 10 players in average DK points this season are quarterbacks. Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook are the only running backs and Michael Thomas is the only wide receiver.
  6. Derrick Henry has averaged 3.9 yards per carry during his career in September and October but 5.5 yards per carry in the winter months.

Top Scoring DFS Players (Week 13)

  • Devante Parker, WR (MIA): 37.9
  • James White, RB (NE): 37.7
  • Robert Woods, WR (LAR): 33.2
  • Alshon Jeffery, WR (PHI): 31.7
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick QB (MIA): 30.8
  • Derrius Guice, RB (WAS): 30.7
  • Deshaun Watson, QB (HOU): 28.8
  • Kenny Golladay, WR (DET): 28.8
  • Carson Wentz, QB (PHI): 28.4
  • Tom Brady, QB (NE): 28.3

Top Scoring DFS Players (Season by Position)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 29.2
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 31.3
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 23.9
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 24.6
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 21.5
  • Mike Evans, WR (TB): 19.0
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): 20.2
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): 17.9
  • New England Patriots DST: 16.5

RB Touches (Week 13)

  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 29
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 24
  • Joe Mixon (CIN): 23
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 23
  • James White (NE): 22
  • Melvin Gordon (LAC): 22
  • Miles Sanders (PHI): 22
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG): 22

RB Total Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 25.8
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 23.8
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 22.6
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 22.4
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 22.2
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 21.9
  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 20.8
  • Marlon Mack (IND): 20.4
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 19.8
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 19.7

Target Leaders (Week 13)

  • Robert Woods (LAR): 19
  • Alshon Jeffery (PHI): 16
  • Anthony Miller (CHI): 13
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 13
  • Allen Robinson (CHI): 12
  • D.J. Moore (CAR): 12
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 12

Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Michael Thomas (NO): 11.0
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 10.2
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): 10.0
  • Davante Adams (GB): 9.9
  • Mike Evans (TB): 9.7
  • D.J. Moore (CAR): 9.6
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 9.4
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 9.3
  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 9.2
  • Julio Jones (ATL): 9.2

Red Zone Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Davante Adams (GB): 1.9
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 1.8
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG): 1.7
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 1.6
  • Mike Evans (TB): 1.5

Red Zone Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 4.5
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 4.2
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 4.1
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 3.7
  • Todd Gurley (LAR): 3.6
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 3.5
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 3.5

Week 13 DK Milly Maker Lineup

Week 13 FD Sunday Millions Lineup

Highest Projected Scoring Game

  • Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots (48.5 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games (42 – o/u)

  • Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers (41.5 o/u)
  • Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans (41.5 o/u)
  • Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Browns (41.5 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Workhorse Running Backs

  • Aaron Jones (GB): $6,700 vs. WAS (13 points)
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): $9,500 vs. DET (13 points)
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): $8,000 vs. CIN (7.5 points)
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): $7,200 vs. MIA (5 points)

Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): $6,700 vs. DET (28.25 points)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): $6,800 vs. WAS (27.25 points)

Highest Projected DFS Ownership (by position)

  • Deshaun Watson, QB (HOU): $6,500 vs. DEN (11-14%)
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,300 @ ATL (27-30%)
  • Patrick Laird, RB (MIA): $4,100 @ NYJ (21-24%)
  • Davante Adams, WR (ATL): $8,000 vs. WAS (17-20%)
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR (HOU): $7,400 vs. DEN (15-18%)
  • Odell Beckham, WR (CLE): $6,300 vs. CIN (13-16%)
  • Hunter Henry, TE (LAC): $5,100 @ JAC (15-18%)
  • Devonta Freeman, RB-FLEX (ATL): $5,400 vs. CAR (17-20%)
  • Houston Texans DST: $3,300 vs. DEN (10-13%)

DraftKings Values (vs. FD price)

  • Drew Brees, QB (NO): 14th DK ($5,900) vs. 7th FD ($7,700)
  • Duke Johnson, RB (HOU): 53rd DK ($3,900) vs. 35th FD ($5,600)
  • Mark Ingram, RB (BAL): 16th DK ($5,900) vs. 9th FD ($7,400)
  • Robby Anderson, WR (NYJ): 36th DK ($5,1000 vs. 26th FD ($6,400)
  • Mike Williams, WR (LAC): 45th DK ($4,500) vs. 35th FD ($5,900)
  • Christian Blake, WR (ATL): 82nd DK ($3,300) vs. 58th FD ($5,200)
  • Benjamin Watson, TE (NE): 23rd DK ($3,000) vs. 17th FD ($5,200)

FanDuel Values (vs. DK price)

  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): 12th FD ($7,600) vs. 5th DK ($6,600)
  • Jacoby Brissett, QB (IND): 17th FD ($7,400) vs. 11th DK ($6,100)
  • Leonard Fournette, RB (JAC): 8th FD ($7,500) vs. 5th DK ($7,800)
  • Kareem Hunt, RB (CLE): 18th FD ($6,400) vs. 10th DK ($6,600)
  • D.J. Chark, WR (JAC): 29th FD ($6,200) vs. 21st DK ($6,200)
  • Kyle Rudolph, TE (MIN): 26th FD ($4,800) vs. 8th DK ($4,400)

Notable DK Salary Increases

  • Jack Doyle, TE (IND): $4,600 @ TB (+1,300)
  • DeVante Parker, WR (MIA): $6,900 @ NYJ (+1,200)
  • Davante Adams, WR (GB): $8,000 vs. WAS (+1,000)
  • David Blough, QB (DET): $5,200 @ MIN (+1,000)
  • Patrick Laird, RB (MIA): $4,100 @ NYJ (+900)

Notable DK Salary Decreases

  • Alvin Kamara, RB (NO): $7,000 vs. SF (-1,100)
  • Travis Kelce, TE (NE): $6,200 @ NE (-1,000)
  • Drew Brees, QB (NO): $5,900 vs. SF (-900)
  • Tevin Coleman, RB (SF): $5,100 @ NO (-800)
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): $8,300 vs. SF (-800)

Five DFS Favorites Under 5K

  • Jack Doyle, TE (IND): $4,600 @ TB
  • Sammy Watkins, WR (KC): $4,600 @ NE
  • Mike Williams, WR (LAC): $4,500 @ JAC
  • Patrick Laird, RB (MIA): $4,100 @ NYJ
  • Duke Johnson, RB (HOU): $3,900 vs. DEN

Princess Leia Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life. On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. I like volume, opportunity, and salary value. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games.  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): $7,400 @ BUF
  • Devonta Freeman, RB (ATL): $5,400 vs. CAR
  • Alvin Kamara, RB (NO): $7,000 vs. SF
  • DeVante Parker, WR (MIA): $6,900 @ NYJ
  • Curtis Samuel, WR (CAR): $4,900 @ ATL
  • Mike Williams, WR (LAC): $4,500 @ JAC
  • Jack Doyle, TE (IND): $4,600 @ TB
  • Melvin Gordon, RB (LAC): $6,400 @ JAC
  • Baltimore Ravens DST: $2,900 @ BUF

Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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Author: @WinningDFS101