By: Randall Blakeslee @_fantasykings
DFS Week 14: By the Numbers
Welcome back. For some of us in public ESPN leagues, it’s week one of the playoffs. If you made it in your season-long leagues, kudos to you. Keep fighting. You’re almost there. For others that need a win in week 14 in order to make the playoffs next week, I wish you the best of luck. With that, let’s get into DFS and talk about how weak last week was.
Broncos DST (14.0): They weren’t the best performing DST from week 13, but they gave you exactly what you wanted from them at $2,700 and for me, that’s a ‘hit.’ I’ll take those points and remain grateful I didn’t lose points. All DST are usually priced far lower than players and it’s solid to get 10+ pts.
STACK / Patrick Mahomes (33.0 pts) and Travis Kelce (42.8 pts): It’s almost not even fair. However, this duo was the only ‘hit’ outside Denver’s DST from last week and I’m man enough to admit it. I don’t recommend this stack for this week’s DFS play only because for the price tag, you probably won’t get the ROI you got last week. The Chiefs are playing (arguably) the best pass defense in the Ravens. Fire up your redraft lineups with these two, but look elsewhere for your dailies.
Corey Davis (14.4): At last week’s salary of $5,500, his 14.4 pts is an average of 2.6 pts per $1k. That falls squarely in the ‘meh’ category and we didn’t see the fire icon by his name
Spencer Ware (12.2 pts): What a major disappointment. He got 14 attempts and only convert them into 47 yards and a score. What made the day such a disaster is that Ware was only targeted once in the passing game. He also failed to convert on another opportunity within 5 yards of the goaline. He should have fired up 20+ points. The talent is there, but Mahomes spent more time in the air.
Chris Conley (11.5 pts): I could slide his performance in the ‘hit’ category because he was a long-shot, but he went from scoring 26.4 pts to 11.5. Conley should have repeated week 12’s stat line since he was targeted 7 times by the league’s top-performing QB. Unfortunately, he only caught 3 of those targets and thankfully one of those was in the endzone.
Carlos Hyde (3.7 pts): Major bust and I’ll say it, my bad. At $3,300 and starting for Fournette, Hyde should have had a day. Instead, he averaged 2.77 YPC on 13 carries.
STEAL OF THE WEEK
Justin Jackson, RB (LAC) $3,800: Jackson was the surprise standout from last week’s run-game for the Chargers. In the absence of Gordon, Austin Ekeler has performed as expected. However, it was Jackson that rushed for 63 yards on 8 totes (7.9 YPC), 1 score, and 1 reception for 19 yards. I like him a lot this week going up against the league’s 31st ranked defense against the position. I’m personally playing him in my redraft leagues where I have Gordon riding the pine. We need him to ball out. At $3,800, role with me.
Rob Gronkowski, TE (NE) $4,800: What? Gronk is considered a steal? Surprisingly, yes. Here’s why: he’s not hurt and going up against Miami, who ranks 21st against the position. The Dolphins allow 254.8 PaYDA/G and they keep getting ripped along the seam, where Gronk tends to dwell. At his salary, he’s almost $2,000 cheaper than Kelce.
Tyler Lockett, WR (SEA) $5,600: Lockett is quietly ranked WR17 in fantasy this season with 719 receiving yards and 9 TDs. He averages 4.5 targets per game and 16.2 yards per reception. Even though he’s going up against the Viking’s tough pass defense (ranked 9th) Baldwin is a game-time decision and the only QB that performs better than Wilson in the month of December – over the past 5 years – is Brady.
Sterling Shepard, WR (NYG) $4,400: With OBJ a surprising sit for tomorrow’s contest against the Redskins, I like Shepard’s odds of being a target hog. He’ll get some one-on-one time with Josh Norman from time to time, but let’s be honest, that’s not nearly as scary as it used to be. With the Skins overly worried about being run over by Saquon, I expect the WR that averages 6.3 targets per game to see around 10 or more.
Zay Jones, WR (BUF) $4,200: Jones went bonkers last week on 9 targets for 67 yards and 2 TDs. The way Josh Allen is playing and the way the Jet’s secondary has been playing, I wouldn’t be completely surprised if Jones saw another 6-8 targets and one or two of those in the endzone. However, remember, this is a longshot.
In a previous article I discussed the benefits of stacking a QB and a WR/TE, a popular gaming method in DFS that pays dividends. Here are this week’s recommended stacks:
Drew Brees ($6,600) and Michael Thomas ($8,600)
Ben Roethlisberger ($6,800) and Juju Smith-Schuster ($8,200)
Kirk Cousins ($5,600) and Adam Thielen ($8,100)
RECOMMENDED DFS ROSTERS
The salaries and PPG are taken from DraftKings. Entering 50/50 contests is the absolute best way to win and double your money. If you decide to go all in and chase the big money, just be sure to enter a few 50/50 DFS contests to ensure you win your money back. Let’s get ready for another exciting week and good luck to you and your lineups.