DFS Week 15: By the Numbers

By: Jamy Bechler @WinningDFS101

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the DFS main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite DFS Stud

Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,000 vs. SEA – The Seahawks defense is not what we remember it being. They can be exploited, especially with pass-catching running backs. McCaffrey has had a couple of sub-par games (for him) but he’s still got the highest floor and ceiling. If you absolutely have confidence in another running back, then play that player. But despite CMC not returning value recently, he still is averaging more DKFP than any other running back in the last four weeks. When you pay this salary, it is for a “guaranteed” floor. He also has more 30+ DKFP games than anyone else this season. I know that I play him every week but that’s because his “bad” games are still better than most other players.

Favorite DFS Core Play

DeAndre Washington, RB (OAK): $4,700 vs. JAC – This is dependent upon Josh Jacobs sitting out again. Oakland plays in the late afternoon so you will want to plan accordingly. I will have him in nearly all of my lineups, but he will be in the flex. The Jags defense is playing really bad right now, giving up nine rushing touchdowns and 823 yards on the ground in their last five games. Washington stepped up last week with 20 touches (14 rushes and six catches). He had 96 total yards and one touchdown (21.6 DKFP). If Jacobs is out, he is an auto-play. If Jacobs is in, you’ll need to decide if he is still worth playing because Jacobs might not be as effective.

Favorite DFS Value

Todd Gurley, RB (LAR): $6,000 @ DAL – See below for the best values between the sites (DK vs. FD) but overall, I really like Gurley’s price this week. He is priced like the player he has been this year, not the player he’s been in the past or the player he has been the last few weeks. Remember, that he started the year priced at $7,900. He has 18+ DKFP in three of the last four weeks. This isn’t an easy matchup this week but at $6,000, I will be playing a lot of him on DK. He has seen 76% of all the running back opportunities (carries and targets) in the last five games for the Rams. He has started to show the Gurley of old – the one that could get three touchdowns in the right situation.

Favorite DFS Punt Play

Danny Amendola, WR (DET): $4,100 vs. TB:  – It’s never fun clicking his name but I don’t have a lot of trust in the wide receiver position this week. Besides, I will be jamming Christian McCaffrey into my lineup again and will need a value play because of that. He has a great matchup and is a great option for a bad quarterback when they need to check down. He has eight targets in each of the last two games. Unfortunately, he has six straight games of underperforming. His ceiling isn’t great, but he has hit the 20-point mark twice this season. Besides, Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson are now on injured reserve so there will be more opportunity for him.

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. Patrick Laird had 79% of the Dolphins running back carries and saw 71% of Miami’s targets last week. Overall, this season, he has seen a target on nearly 13% of his snaps (which was 82% of all Miami’s plays, by the way). *Stats courtesy of Establish the Run’s Adam Levitan.
  2. Christian McCaffrey has 130+ total yards from scrimmage in 10 different games this season.
  3. Jarvis Landry has been targeted on 30% of the Browns red zone opportunities this season. The Cardinals have allowed more red zone opportunities than any other team (4.2 RZ trips per game). *Stat courtesy of ESPN’s Al Zeidenfeld.
  4. Robert Woods has scored more fantasy points than any other wide receiver in the last four weeks (23.87 DKFP). He also has at least 95 yards in each of those games.
  5. A.J. Brown is tied for the second most wide receiver touchdowns (3) in the last four games and is the top 10 in yards (350) but is only 45th in targets (20) and 39th in catches (13).
  6. The five top quarterbacks (according to PFF grades) are Russell Wilson (91.8), Drew Brees (91.4), Ryan Tannehill (90.0), Lamar Jackson (89.3), and Kirk Cousins (84.9).

Top Scoring DFS Players (Week 14)

  • Drew Brees, QB (NO): 43.0
  • Jameis Winston, QB (TB): 40.7
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): 37.3
  • Emmanuel Sanders, WR (SF): 37.1
  • A.J. Brown, WR (TEN): 36.6
  • Darius Slayton, WR (NYG): 35.4
  • Aaron Jones, RB (GB): 34.2
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 33.4
  • Mitch Trubisky, QB (CHI): 33.0
  • Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (SF): 32.0

Top Scoring DFS Players (Season by Position)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 29.1
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 30.7
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 23.2
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 25.3
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 21.1
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR (HOU): 19.7
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): 21.5
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): 16.6
  • New England Patriots DST: 16.5

RB Touches (Week 14)

  • Todd Gurley (LAR): 27
  • Joe Mixon (CIN): 26
  • Devin Singletary (BUF): 23
  • Aaron Jones (GB): 22
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 22

RB Total Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 25.5
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 23.3
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 22.4
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 22.1
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 21.9
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 22.1
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 21.6
  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 20.6
  • Marlon Mack (IND): 19.7
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 19.7
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 19.7

Target Leaders (Week 14)

  • Michael Thomas (NO): 15
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): 13
  • Zach Ertz (PHI): 13
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 12
  • Julian Edelman (NO): 12

Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Michael Thomas (NO): 11.3
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 10.4
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): 10.2
  • Davante Adams (GB): 9.4
  • D.J. Moore (CAR): 9.3
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 9.2
  • Zach Ertz (PHI): 9.2
  • Julio Jones (ATL): 9.1
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 9.1
  • Mike Evans (TB): 9.1

Red Zone Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Davante Adams (GB): 1.8
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 1.8
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG): 1.7
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 1.5
  • Mike Evans (TB): 1.4

Red Zone Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 4.5
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 4.4
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 3.8
  • Todd Gurley (LAR): 3.8
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 3.7

Week 14 DK Milly Maker Lineup

Week 14 FD Sunday Millions Lineup

Highest Projected Scoring Game (50+ o/u)

  • Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (51.0 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games (42-or less o/u)

  • Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (39.0 o/u)
  • Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (40.0 o/u)
  • New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals (41.5 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Workhorse Running Backs

  • Aaron Jones (GB): $7,300 vs. CHI (5 points)

Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): $6,100 vs. ATL (29.75 points)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): $7,100 vs. DEN (27.75 points)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): $7,000 @ CAR (27.25 points)
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN): $6,500 vs. HOU (27.0 points)
  • Derek Carr (OAK): $5,600 vs. JAC (26.75 points)
  • Baker Mayfield (CLE): $6,400 @ ARI (26.0 points)

Highest Projected DFS Ownership (by position)

  • Ryan Tannehill, QB (TEN): $6,500 vs. TEN (12-15%)
  • Chris Carson, RB (SEA): $7,500 @ CAR (28-31%)
  • Saquon Barkley, RB (NYG): $7,700 vs. MIA (26-29%)
  • Todd Gurley, RB-FLEX (LAR): $6,000 @ DAL (23-26%)
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR (HOU): $8,000 @ TEN (18-21%)
  • A.J. Brown, WR (TEN): $6,000 vs. HOU (17-20%)
  • Christian Kirk, WR (ARI): $5,500 vs. CLE (16-19%)
  • Tyler Higbee, TE (LAR): $3,900 @ DAL (16-19%)
  • Detroit Lions DST: $2,300 vs. TB (17-20%)

DraftKings Values (vs. FD price)

  • Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (SF): 11th DK ($6,100) vs. 1st FD ($8,400)
  • Kyler Murray, QB (ARI): 22nd DK ($5,600) vs. 15th FD ($7,600)
  • Raheem Mostert, RB (SF): 21st DK ($5,200) vs. 11th FD ($7,500)
  • Todd Gurley, RB (LAR): 15th DK ($6,000) vs. 10th FD ($7,600)
  • Josh Reynolds, WR (LAR): 110th DK ($3,000) vs. 58th FD ($5,400)
  • Robert Woods, WR (LAR): 21st DK ($6,200) vs. 13th FD ($7,500)
  • Allen Robinson, WR (CHI): 11th DK ($6,800) vs. 3rd FD ($8,000)
  • Amari Cooper, WR (DAL): 15th DK ($6,500) vs. 9th FD ($7,700)

FanDuel Values (vs. DK price)

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB (MIA): 20th FD ($7,400) vs. 9th DK ($6,200)
  • Baker Mayfield, QB (CLE): 11th FD ($7,700) vs. 6th DK ($6,400)
  • Chris Carson, RB (SEA): 13th FD ($7,600) vs. 8th DK ($7,500)
  • Justin Watson, WR (TB): 110th FD ($4,500) vs. 69th DK ($3,700)
  • Russell Gage, WR (ATL): 62nd FD ($5,900) vs. 39th DK ($5,000)
  • A.J. Brown, WR (TEN): 39th FD ($6,200) vs. 26th DK ($6,000)
  • Christian Kirk, WR (ARI): 40th FD ($6,100) vs. 34th DK ($5,500)

Notable DK Salary Increases

  • DeAndre Washington, RB (OAK): $4,700 vs. JAC (+1,700)
  • Chris Carson, RB (SEA): $7,500 @ CAR (+1,500)
  • Emmanuel Sanders, WR (SF): $6,600 vs. ATL (+800)
  • Breshad Perriman, WR (TB): $4,500 @ DET (+800)
  • Ryan Tannehill, QB (TEN): $6,500 vs. HOU (+700)

Notable DK Salary Decreases

  • Tevin Coleman, RB (SF): $5,000 @ ATL (-1,100)
  • Mohamed Sanu, WR (NE): $4,300 @ CIN (-700)
  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): $5,900 @ SF (-700)
  • Tyreek Hill, WR (KC): $7,500 vs. DEN (-600)
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): $8,900 @ LAC (-600)

Five DFS Favorites Under 5K

  • Patrick Laird, RB (MIA): $4,500 @ NYG
  • Danny Amendola, WR (DET): $4,100 vs. TB
  • Tyler Higbee, TE (LAR): $3,900 @ DAL
  • Chris Conley, WR (JAC): $3,600 @ OAK
  • Ian Thomas, TE (CAR): $3,100 vs. SEA

Princess Leia Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life. On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. I like volume, opportunity, and salary value. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games.  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

  • Kyle Allen, QB (CAR): $5,400 vs. SEA
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,000 vs. SEA
  • Todd Gurley, RB (LAR): $6,000 @ DAL
  • Danny Amendola, WR (DET): $4,100 vs. TB
  • Jarvis Landry, WR (CLE): $6,700 @ ARI
  • Allen Robinson, WR (CHI): $6,800 @ GB
  • Tyler Higbee, TE (LAR): $3,900 @ DAL
  • DeAndre Washington, RB (OAK): $4,700 vs. JAC
  • Detroit Lions DST: $2,300 vs. TB

Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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Author: @WinningDFS101