DFS Week 16: By the Numbers

By: Jamy Bechler @WinningDFS101

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the NFL main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite DFS Stud

Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,100 @ IND – Only Lamar Jackson rivals CMC for consistency in both floor and ceiling this year. As for McCaffrey, he is a stud. Just put him in your lineup and don’t over think it. His floor is a normal person’s good game and he has the most 30+ point games this season. You are paying for the floor, with a strong chance of a ceiling game. The Panthers are saying all the right things in regard to his usage the remainder of the year and trying to get him 1,000 yards rushing and receiving (186 yards shy of the receiving milestone).

Favorite DFS Core Play

DeAndre Washington, RB (OAK): $4,000 @ OAK – Josh Jacobs has already been ruled out for Sunday, so Washington becomes a free space. He will be the highest-owned but his extremely low salary makes him a must-play. When he started two weeks ago, he had 20 touches (14 rushes and six catches) which resulted in 96 total yards and one touchdown (21.6 DKFP). I will be playing him in all my lineups and then will look to differentiate elsewhere.

Favorite DFS Value

Joe Mixon, RB (CIN): $6,600 @ MIA – I don’t trust Mixon and therefore rarely play him. However, it looks like his coach trusts him which tells me that I might need to actually consider him this week. I have been intentionally overlooking him for many weeks now and all he seems to do is put up 17-20 FDFP regularly. He has rushed for 282 yards in the last two weeks and this week gets a Dolphins team that is giving up more yards to running backs than any other team. In the six game since the bye, he is averaging nearly 24 touches and 19.1 FDFP. He is definitely in play this week even at his elevated price tag.

Favorite DFS Punt Play

Greg Ward, WR (PHI): $4,200 vs. DAL  – He has 28 targets in his last four games, including five red zone targets in the last two games. He earned 19.1 DKFP in last Sunday’s game. The Eagles are really struggling at the wide receiver position, so Ward looks to be a viable option.

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. Tyler Higbee joined Travis Kelce, Jimmy Graham, and Tony Gonzalez as the only tight end to have three consecutive 100 yard games. Only four other players have done that this season (Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, and Chris Godwin).
  2. Austin Ekeler led all NFL running backs in yards per touch (7.1) and only had 1 drop on 91 targets (according to Evan Silva from Establish the Run).
  3. The Browns are guaranteed to end the season with a non-winning season. They will be the only team in the NFL not having a winning season in this entire decade.
  4. Since becoming the starter again in Week 7 of the season, Ryan Fitzpatrick has averaged more fantasy points per game than Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson (according to JJ Zachariason of Number Fire).
  5. Christian McCaffrey needs 388 more yards from scrimmage to break Chris Johnson’s record of 2,509 in the 2009 season.
  6. Lamar Jackson has had seven games of 30+ DKFP and only one game under 20 points. Other than Christian McCaffrey, he has been the best floor-ceiling player in DFS this year. According to PFF’s Scott Barrett, the Browns are averaging 3.9 rushing fantasy points per game, which is 2nd worst in the NFL.

Top Scoring Players (Week 15)

  • Kenyan Drake, RB (ARI): 42.6
  • Julio Jones, WR (ATL): 41.4
  • Miles Sanders, RB (PHI): 38.2
  • Breshad Perriman, WR (TB): 37.6
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 37.5
  • Lamar Jackson, RB (BAL): 37.0
  • Jameis Winston, QB (TB): 36.7
  • Ezekiel Elliott, RB (DAL): 34.0
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 33.8
  • Saquon Barkley, RB (NYG): 33.3

Top Scoring Players (Season by Position)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 29.1
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 31.2
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 22.1
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 25.9
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 21.0
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR (HOU): 19.8
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): 20.9
  • Travis Kelce, TE (KC): 16.8
  • New England Patriots DST: 16.1

RB Touches (Week 15)

  • Joe Mixon (CIN): 28
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG): 28
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 27
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 27
  • Carlos Hyde (HOU): 26
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 26

RB Total Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 25.6
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 23.1
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 22.4
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 21.9
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 21.8
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 21.6
  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 20.6
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG): 20.3
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 20.2
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 20.1

Target Leaders (Week 15)

  • Julio Jones (ATL): 20
  • George Kittle (SF): 17
  • Anthony Miller (CHI): 15
  • Allen Robinson (CHI): 14
  • Tyler Higbee (LAR): 14

Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Michael Thomas (NO): 11.4
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): 10.1
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 10.0
  • Julio Jones (ATL): 9.9
  • Davante Adams (GB): 9.8
  • D.J. Moore (CAR): 9.5
  • Allen Robinson (CHI): 9.3
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 9.2
  • Zach Ertz (PHI): 9.2
  • Mike Evans (TB): 9.1

Red Zone Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Davante Adams (GB): 1.7
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 1.6
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 1.6
  • Greg Ward (PHI): 1.6
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG): 1.5

Red Zone Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 4.5
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 4.4
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 3.8
  • Todd Gurley (LAR): 3.8
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 3.5

Week 15 DK Milly Maker Lineup

Week 15 FD Sunday Millions Lineup

Highest Projected Scoring Game (50+ o/u)

  • Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (51.0 o/u)
  • New Orleans Saints @ Tennessee Titans (50.5 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games (42-or less o/u)

  • Pittsburg Steelers @ New York Jets (37.0 o/u)
  • Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos (37.5 o/u)
  • New York Giants @ Washington Redskins (41.0 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Workhorse Running Backs

  • Chris Carson (SEA): $8,500 vs. ARI (10 points)
  • Devonta Freeman (ATL): $6,000 vs. JAC (7.5 points)
  • Melvin Gordon (LAC): $5,600 vs. OAK (7.0 points)
  • Marlon Mack (IND): $6,200 vs. CAR (6.5 points)
  • Phillip Lindsay (DEN): $5,300 vs. DET (6.5 points)

Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Russell Wilson (SEA): $7,000 vs. ARI (30.5 points)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): $8,000 @ CLE (29.75 points)
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): $6,200 vs. JAC (27.0 points)
  • Drew Brees (NO): $6,900 @ TEN (26.5 points)
  • Jacoby Brissett (IND): $5,900 vs. CAR (26.25 points)
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): $5,700 vs. OAK (26.25 points)

Highest Projected DFS Ownership (by position)

  • Russell Wilson, QB (SEA): $7,000 vs. ARI (15-18%)
  • DeAndre Washington, RB (OAK): $4,000 @ LAC (43-45%)
  • Devonta Freeman, RB (ATL): $6,000 vs. JAC (16-19%)
  • Keenan Allen, WR (LAC): $6,300 vs. OAK (17-20%)
  • Greg Ward, WR (PHI): $4,200 vs. DAL (12-15%)
  • Terry McLaurin, WR (WAS): $6,200 vs. NYG (12-15%)
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): $4,400 vs. JAC (22-25%)
  • Joe Mixon, RB-FLEX (CIN): $6,600 @ MIA (16-19%)
  • Denver Broncos DST: $3,500 vs. DET (12-15%)

Notable DK Salary Increases

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): $8,000 @ CLE (+500)
  • Kenyan Drake, RB (ARI): $6,300 @ SEA (+1,300)
  • Greg Ward, WR (PHI): $4,200 vs. DAL (+1,200)
  • Julio Jones, WR (ATL): $8,000 vs. JAC (+1,000)
  • A.J. Brown, WR (TEN): $7,000 vs. NO (+1,000)

Notable DK Salary Decreases

  • Baker Mayfield, QB (CLE): $5,400 vs. BAL (-1,000)
  • Nick Chubb, RB (CLE): $6,900 vs. BAL (-1,000)
  • Melvin Gordon, RB (LAC): $5,600 vs. OAK (-900)
  • Golden Tate, WR (NYG): $4,800 @ WAS (-1,100)
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): $4,400 vs. JAC (-600)

Five DFS Favorites Under 5K

  • Danny Amendola, WR (DET): $4,900 @ DEN
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): $4,400 vs. JAC
  • Chris Conley, WR (JAC): $4,300 @ ATL
  • Greg Ward, WR (PHI): $4,200 vs. DAL
  • DeAndre Washington, RB (OAK): $4,000 @ LAC

Princess Leia DFS Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life. On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. I like volume, opportunity, and salary value. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games.  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

  • Will Grier, QB (CAR): $4,300 @ IND
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,100 @ IND
  • Joe Mixon, RB (CIN): $6,600 @ MIA
  • Danny Amendola, WR (DET): $4,900 @ DEN
  • Diontae Johnson, WR (PIT): $4,700 @ NYJ
  • Greg Ward, WR (PHI): $4,200 vs. DAL
  • Zach Ertz, WR (PHI): $6,400 vs. DAL
  • Devonta Freeman, RB (ATL): $6,000 vs. JAC
  • Washington Redskins DST: $2,800 vs. NYG

Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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Author: @WinningDFS101