DFS Week 2: By the Numbers

DFS

DFS Week 2: By the Numbers

By: Jamy Bechler @WinningDFS101

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the DFS main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite Stud

Alvin Kamara, RB (NO): $8,200 @ LAR – In his two games against the Rams last season, he rushed 27 times for 97 yards and two touchdowns. Not only is he a good Running Back but he is elite because of his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. In his two games against the Rams last year, he caught 15 of his 18 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. Last week the Rams gave up 45.9 DKFP to Christian McCaffrey, who is a similar pass-catching RB. Kamara totaled 169 yards on 13 carries and seven catches last week against the Texans. He finished with 23.9 DKFP. This isn’t slate-breaking numbers, but you are paying for this kind of floor, with the understanding that he has a high ceiling, as well. He is one of the three elite RBs on this slate, but he is $1,000 less than Saquon Barkley and $500 less than a Zeke that is still shaking off the rust from skipping the preseason. We may not see his salary this low again all season.

Favorite Core Play

Mark Ingram, RB (BAL): $6,000 vs. ARI – Arizona gave up the most touchdowns and second most fantasy points to RBs last year. This is a different year and a different coaching staff but they are still not very good and they play fast on offense. That could mean stamina issues for the defense against a team like Baltimore. Ingram is a workhorse running back with duties in the pass game and at the goal line. His team is favored by double-digits at home. He is coming off a 107-yard, two touchdown performance in a game in which he sat a great deal of the second half. His price is just what Dalvin Cook’s was last week and we really liked the value that he returned for us. Other than Kamara, Barkely, Zeke, and Ingram, I will also target Austin Ekeler this week even more now that we’ve gotten word that Hunter Henry is out, and Mike Williams is questionable. Ekeler is a huge weapon out of the backfield and it looks like he could be in line for even more targets. He finished Week 1 with 153 total yards and three touchdowns.

Favorite Value

Tyrell Williams, WR (OAK): $4,400 vs. KC – His salary does not reflect his huge Monday night game against Denver. He now gets a favorable match up in a high-scoring environment against the Chiefs. Though we don’t know exactly what Oakland is trying to do on offense, we do know that they don’t have an established number one receiver on their roster so Williams’ 6-105-1 stat line gives us clues that he might be the guy. Last year (with the Chargers), he scored a touchdown in the first game against the Chiefs and then had six catches for 71 yards in the second game. Last week, the Chiefs gave up touchdowns to three different Jacksonville Wide Receivers. At this price, I don’t see him failing as an underdog in a game with a 53.5 total. There should be lots of scoring and the Raiders appear to be limited on weapons if they get behind. Williams has big-play ability. He should return value at this price and certainly has the potential to duplicate what he did this past Monday night.

Favorite Punt

T.J. Hockenson, TE (DET): $3,000 vs. LAC – Hockenson had the second-best TE performance of Week 1 as he turned his nine targets into a 6-131-1 stat line. The No. 8 selection in this past Spring’s draft put up the highest yardage total for a TE in their first NFL game since 1970. However, for this week, he gets a tougher match up as the Chargers held Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle in check last week. His price on FanDuel skyrocketed $1,100 to $6,000. Playing him on FD probably doesn’t make much sense when you consider Evan Engram is only $400 more. If you want to play him, look at DraftKings, where he actually WENT DOWN in salary $100 to $3,000 after having a monster game. That might be the weirdest pricing of the week! He played 73% of the snaps this past week. We’d like that to be higher but for a rookie TE on the Lions, we’ll take that. I expect Hockenson to be targeted quite a bit moving forward. This is still a position that has variance so picking a TE is never safe but at this price, it is hard to fail. I am also going to have a lot of Darren Waller coming off a game that he played every snap and caught 7 of his 8 targets totaling 70 yards.

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. This section is about facts, not feelings so #NarrativeStreet isn’t something that can be relied upon. However, there are times when facts and feelings align. Brandin Cooks against a former team is one of such situation. Last year, Cooks played two games against the Saints and one against the Patriots. He topped 100-yards in all three of those games. Additionally, he was the third-best receiver in the NFL last year when playing at home (according to ESPN’s Matthew Berry). The Saints also did just give up 216 yards and three touchdowns to Texans WRs.
  2. You may not have been entirely familiar with Gardner Minshew before he was thrust into action for Jacksonville last week when Nick Foles got hurt. But the former protégé of Mike Leach just might be the most interesting player in the NFL (seriously, Google him when you have some extra time to waste). That claim might be open for debate but what isn’t up for discussion is the fact that he completed 22 of his 25 passes for 275 yards and two touchdowns. According to Michael DiRocco (ESPN NFL Nation), Minshew’s streak of 13 consecutive completions to begin his career was the longest streak by a player to start their career in the last 40 years. The previous longest streak was nine straight completions by Brad Johnson in 1994. Minshew, who finished fifth in the 2018 Heisman Trophy voting, gets the Texans this weekend. Houston is fresh off of giving up 370 yards on 43 attempts from Drew Brees.
  3. In the 100-year history of the NFL, only 10 rookie WRs have topped the 100-yard receiving total in Week 1. This past week, it happened three times as Washington’s Terry McLaurin (3-104-1), the Titans A.J. Brown (3-100-0), and Baltimore’s Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (4-147-2) put up impressive debuts. McLaurin led his team in air yards, A.J. Brown led the Titans in targets, but “Hollywood” didn’t receive much usage but made the most of it. “Hollywood” only played 14 snaps and ran eight routes but saw five targets. He also became only the third player ever to score a touchdown on his first two catches. By the way, Lions Tight End T.J. Hockenson’s 138 yards made it four rookies to achieve the 100-yard receiving, making this the only time that has ever happened in any week in NFL history.
  4. Christian McCaffrey (91%) and Ezekiel Elliott (88%) were the only two RBs to play more percentage of snaps for their team than Todd Gurley (86%) last year. In Week 1, Gurley only played 68% of the Rams snaps. However, what was most surprising is that he barely led the team in rushes (14 to Malcolm Brown’s 11). Probably the most alarming stat is that Gurley saw 0 red zone touches as Malcolm Brown got five and Darrell Henderson had one. Gurley actually looked explosive, but his usage is concerning.
  5. George Kittle’s 13.4 DKFP (8-54-0) might have been disappointing to many last week but he actually had two touchdowns negated as a result of penalties. He had 10 targets (12 including the two penalties), including four on the very first drive. This week he gets a team in the Bengals that allowed the most touchdowns to the TE position last year. They also gave up the second-most amount of fantasy points to TE’s (0.01 less on average than the Chiefs). According to Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), the Bengals gave up a TE touchdown every 11.2 targets.
  6. In two games last year against the Packers, Adam Thielen had 22 total targets (20-256-2) and Stefon Diggs had 20 total targets (16-202-2). Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray combined for 34 carries, 119 yards, and 0 touchdowns. In Week 1, the Vikings passed only 10 times and Dalvin Cook rushed 21 times for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns. I don’t know what all of this means but those are some confusing (but very interesting) numbers going into Week 2 for the Vikings against the Packers.

RB Total Touches (Week 1)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 29 vs. LAR
  • Marlon Mack (IND): 25 @ LAC
  • David Johnson (ARI): 24 vs. DET
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 24 vs. DEN
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 23 vs. ATL
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 23 vs. BUF
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 21 vs. CIN
  • Alvin Kamara (NO): 20 vs. HOU
  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 20 @ CLE
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 20 vs. TEN

Target Leaders (Week 1)

  • Jamison Crowder (NYJ): 17 vs. BUF
  • Evan Engram (NYG): 14 @ DAL
  • Allen Robinson (CHI): 13 vs. GB
  • Robert Woods (LAR): 13 @ CAR
  • Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): 13 vs. DET
  • Danny Amendola (DET): 13 @ ARI
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): 13 @ NO
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 13 vs. HOU
  • John Ross (CIN): 12 @ SEA
  • Christian Kirk (ARI): 12 vs. DET
  • Julio Jones (ATL): 11 @ MIN
  • Sammy Watkins (KC): 11 @ JAX
  • Odell Beckham (CLE): 11 vs. TEN
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 11 vs. LAR
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 11 @ SEA
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 11 vs. PIT

Interesting Snap Counts (Week 1)

  • Darren Waller, TE (OAK): 100% vs. DEN
  • Mecole Hardman, WR (KC): 79% @ JAC
  • Devin Singletary, RB (BUF): 70% @ NYJ
  • Kerryon Johnson, RB (DET): 57% @ ARI
  • Marquise Brown, WR (BAL): 18% @MIA

Highest Owned DFS Players (Week 1 Milly Maker)

  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): $6,000 vs. ATL (37.0%)
  • Adam Thielen, WR (MIN): $6,800 vs. ATL (28.4%)
  • Dede Westbrook, WR (JAX): $4,800 vs. KC (26.8%)
  • Chris Carson, RB (SEA): $5,700 vs. CIN (26.7%)
  • Leonard Fournette, RB (JAX): $6,100 vs. KC (25.8%)
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): $6,200 @ SF (22.1%)
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $8,800 vs. LAR (20.24%)
  • Tyler Lockett, WR (SEA): $6,000 vs. CIN (18.1%)
  • Saquon Barkley, RB (NYG): $9,000 @ DAL (17.8%)
  • Le’Veon Bell, RB (NYJ): $7,100 vs. BUF (17.7%

Top Scoring DFS Players (Week 1)

  • Sammy Watkins, WR (KC): 49.8 points
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 45.9 points
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): 39.4 points
  • DeSean Jackson, WR (PHI): 38.4 points
  • John Ross, WR (CIN): 37.8 points
  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 36.5 points
  • Dak Prescott, QB (DAL): 36.4 points
  • Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, WR (BAL): 33.7 points
  • Evan Engram, TE (NYG): 31.6 points
  • Matthew Stafford, QB (DET): 31.6 points
  • San Francisco DST: 27.0 points (top DST)

Week 1 DFS DK Milly Maker Lineup

Week 1 DFS FD Sunday Millions Lineup

Favorable DFS Matchups This Week

  • George Kittle (SF) vs. Cincinnati (Allowed most TE touchdowns last year; 2nd most TE fantasy pts.)
  • Darren Waller (OAK) vs. Kansas City (Allowed most TE fantasy pts. last year and 2nd most TE touchdowns)
  • Tyler Boyd/John Ross (CIN) vs. San Francisco (Allowed most WR touchdowns last year)
  • Mark Ingram (BAL) vs. Arizona (Allowed most RB touchdowns last year)
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU) vs. Jacksonville (Allowed most QB rushing touchdowns last year)

Highest Projected Scoring Games

  • Kansas City @ Oakland (53.5 o/u)
  • New Orleans @ LA Rams (53.5 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games

  • Arizona @ Baltimore (41.5 o/u)
  • Buffalo @ NY Giants (43.0 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Workhorse Running Backs

  • Mark Ingram (BAL): $6,000 vs. Arizona (13.5 pts)
  • James Conner (PIT): $6,800 vs. Seattle (4 pts)

Home Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): $6,700 vs. Arizona (33 pts)
  • Jared Goff (LAR): $5,900 vs. New Orleans (28 pts)
  • Deshaun Watson (HOU): $6,600 vs. Jacksonville (26 pts)

Highest Projected DFS Ownership (by position)

  • Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC): $7,500 @ OAK (12-14%)
  • Josh Jacobs, RB (OAK): $4,700 vs. KC (27-30%)
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): $6,100 @ DET (23-25%)
  • Tyrell Williams, WR (OAK): $4,400 vs. KC (25-28%)
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): $8,000 @ LAR (20-22%)
  • Darren Waller, TE (OAK): $3,300 vs. KC (17-19%)
  • Houston Texans, DST: $2,800 vs. JAC (13-16%)

DraftKings DFS Values (vs. FD price)

  • Josh Allen, QB (BUF):  17th DK ($5,300) vs. 12th FD ($7,500)
  • Mark Ingram, RB (BAL): 14th DK ($6,000) vs. 6th FD ($7,500)
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): 13th DK ($6,100) vs. 9th FD ($7,500)
  • Latavius Murray, RB (NO): 42nd DK ($3,700) vs. 25th FD ($5,900)
  • Josh Jacobs, RB (OAK): 27th DK ($4,700) vs. 19th FD ($6,500)
  • Robert Woods, WR (LAR): 16th DK ($6,400) vs. 11th FD ($7,300)
  • Tyrell Williams, WR (OAK): 44th DK ($4,400) vs. 30th FD ($5,900)
  • John Ross, WR (CIN): 35th DK ($4,600) vs. 21st FD ($6,400)
  • T.J. Hockenson, TE (DET): 21st DK ($3,000) vs. 7th FD ($6,000)
  • Denver Broncos DST: 15th DK ($2,700) vs. 8th FD ($4,500)

FanDuel DFS Values (vs. DK price)

  • Kyler Murray, QB (ARI):  21st FD ($6,500) vs. 15th DK ($5,400)
  • Jimmy Garrappolo, QB (SF):  17th FD ($7,000) vs. 10th DK ($6,000)
  • David Johnson, RB (ARI):  12th FD ($7,300) vs. 6th DK ($7,100)
  • Gio Bernard, RB (CIN):  30th FD ($5,700) vs. 20th DK ($5,300)
  • Matt Breida, RB (SF):  34th FD ($5,600) vs. 21st DK ($5,200)
  • Kenny Golladay, WR (DET): 20th FD ($6,600) vs. 14th FD ($6,600)
  • Tyler Boyd, WR (CIN): 24th FD ($6,300) vs. 15th DK ($6,500)
  • Mecole Hardman, WR (KC): 84th FD ($4,700) vs. 32nd DK ($4,800)
  • Vance MacDonald, TE (PIT):  10th FD ($5,600) vs. 6th DK ($3,900)
  • Kansas City Chiefs DST: 9th FD ($4,400) vs. 4th DK ($3,500)

Notable DFS Salary Increases

  • +2,200, Sammy Watkins, WR (KC): $7,200 @ OAK
  • +1,200, Marquise Brown, WR (BAL): $5,000 vs. ARI
  • +1,200, Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): $7,200 @ GB
  • +1,200, Giovani Bernard, RB (CIN): $5,200 vs. SF
  • +800, Mark Andrews, TE (BAL): $3,800 vs. ARI

Notable DFS Salary Decreases

  • -1000, Duke Johnson, RB (HOU): $5,000 vs. JAC
  • -900, Todd Gurley, RB (LAR): $7,000 vs. NO
  • -500, Ezekiel Elliott, RB (DAL): $8,700 @ WAS
  • -500, James Conner, RB (SEA): $6,800 vs. SEA
  • -400, Stefon Diggs, WR (MIN): $6,300 @ GB

Favorite DFS Plays Under 4K

  • Chris Thompson, RB (WAS): $3,900 vs. DAL
  • Danny Amendola, WR (DET): $3,900 vs. LAC
  • Latavius Murray, RB (NO): $3,800 @ LAR
  • Cole Beasley, WR (BUF): $3,800 @NYG
  • Terry McLaurin, WR (WAS): $3,800 vs. DAL
  • Darren Waller, TE (OAK): $3,300 vs. KC
  • T.J.Hockenson, TE (DET): $3,000 vs. LAC

Princess Leia DFS Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life. On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games (which I won at a 60% clip last year, btw, #humblebrag).  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

For more Fantasy Football content visit CouchPotatoGM.com

Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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@WinningDFS101

Author: @WinningDFS101