By: Randall Blakeslee @_fantasykings
DFS Week 2: By the Numbers
Welcome back. I hope you got the win last week with your season-long leagues. More so, I hope you made a little cash with your DFS games. I can tell you – I sure did. I put my money on the line with last week’s advice and it paid off. Here are the HITS and MISSES from last week’s article:
James Conner (PIT) 32.8 pts: Week 1 “Steal of the Week” was right on the money. Conner finished as the second highest RB. A handful of us knew he would breakout in game one. The rest of the Bell supporters were quick to argue that Conner would not be nearly as productive. Those tweets did not age well. Truth is, Conner scored more last week than Bell did the first two weeks of last season. Am I saying he is a better or a near-peer back? Absolutely not. However, we are talking fantasy and with 193 yards from scrimmage and two TDs, Conner came through in a big way – for less than half of Bell’s price. Look to fire him up again this week at his expected increased salary of $6,700.
Ravens D/ST (BAL) 17.0 pts: Nathan Peterman. 0 quarterback rating. However, the Ravens will not roll through every week, as evident by Thursday’s game against the Bengals.
Jarvis Landry (CLE) 17.6 pts: 15 targets, 7 receptions, 106 yards. He failed to find the endzone, but that is not anything new. “Flash” Gordon is the team’s top red zone target, but Landry is the work horse. His NFL NextGen© route chart is ridiculous. He lines up everywhere. Seven days ago I warned you “this will be the last week to get him at his current salary ($5,500). This week he sits right where he belongs at $6,300. When the Browns travel to the Superdome, it could be another Saints shootout. If you stack Landry and Taylor this week, consider it a high-risk, extremely high-reward scenario.
Jordan Reed (WAS) 14.0 pts: Alex Smith sure likes his talented TEs. Reed is healthy and the Redskins look good. This week he faces one of the league’s worst defense. He is a weekly add until further notice
John Brown (BAL) 13.6 pts: With two games under his belt, he has 14 targets, 7 receptions, 136 yards, and two TDs. He was definitely worth last week’s asking price of $3,700. Look for Brown to be a popular week 3 waiver wire. In DFS, keep him in your line ups as your WR3/Flex. His lower than standard salary helps free up valuable cap space.
STACK / Drew Brees (37.5 pts) + Michael Thomas (38.0 pts): Worth every dollar they took collectively from your $50,000 salary cap.
STACK / Andy Dalton (21.5 pts) + A.J. Green (19.2 pts): After Thursday mêlée over the Ravens, I foresee this stack offering the fantasy Gods defenses, as their weekly sacrifices.
STACK / Kirk Cousin (24.3 pts) + Stefon Diggs (14.1 pts): Everyone saw this combination since the preseason opener. This stack should remain a staple on a week to week basis, especially against another high-powered offense.
Royce Freeman (DEN) 7.10 pts: Phillip Lindsay who? Yeah, no one saw him coming. The Broncos will continue to go with a RBBC. It is the smart play in today’s NFL. Both Freeman and Lindsay had 15 carries and 71 yards, each. Lindsay just excelled as a pass-catcher. However, I am not panicking just yet. His price tag dropped $200 from $4,500 to $4,300. Freeman gets the Raiders in week 2 and they gave up 5.4 YPC last week. I still recommend you fire him up as a Flex this week.
Saints (NO) -4.00 pts: Yes, negative 4 points. My bad. I should have known that Ryan Fitzpatrick would light up the Saints with four TDs and one on the ground. Fitz was owned by a measly 3% of yahoo owners. How could we miss the writing on the wall? To the chaps that stacked Fitz with DeSean Jackson last week, you deserve the hundreds of thousands I saw you take home.
STEAL(S) OF THE WEEK
Adrian Peterson, RB (WAS) $5,500 – Just when you give up on the 33 year-old, he reminds you why he is a future Hall of Famer. Last week against Arizona, he rushed for 96 yards and a TD on 26 carries and caught 2 passes for 70 yards; leading the team in both rushing and receiving. What? Receiving? Yup. Tomorrow he faces the Colts’ bottom of the barrel run defense, which gave up 95 yards on the ground, on 17 carries, to Joe Mixon. AP is good for 25+ carries and a TD or two. His salary ranks him 18th at the position. He will have something to say about that.
Tevin Coleman, RB (WAS) $5,300 – Last minute entry since the Falcons declared Devonta Freeman will not play this Sunday. Last season, Coleman reached 20 carries twice, against Seattle and Dallas. He averaged 73 total yards and one TD per game. That might not seem like much in comparison to Freeman, but it proves he can carry the load when he has to. Coleman is a third-round talent capable of punching in on the goal line as well as catching out of the backfield. Though the matchup in not ideal, the Panthers did surrender 17.6 pts to Zeke last week, while stacking the box 53.3% of the time. Carolina will actually have to deploy significantly more sub packages against Atlanta’s WR corps.
James White, RB (NE) $4,500 – Shall we take a look at the Patriots’ backfield? Rex Burkhead (concussion), Jeremy Hill (IR), Sony Michel (knee), Kenjon Barner (who?), and James White (boom!). Not only is he elusive out of the backfield, he is a top checkdown target for Brady. Last week, White was targeted 9 times, once of which went for a TD. With New England facing one of the top 3 defenses in “Sacks-inville” this week, I expect White finishing in the top 10. If you doubt if he is capable or not, please see Super Bowl 51.
Nelson Agholor (PHI) $6,100 – He is the team’s top (healthy) WR option and the Bucs were roasted by Michael Thomas last week (mostly from the slot). Agholor might not be as talented, he will get around 10 targets against Tampa Bay’s porous secondary.
Nick Foles (PHI) $5,700 – If Wentz sits out this week, stands to reason that Foles can perform at or around the level of Fitzpatrick’s play from last week. Stack him with Agholor or Zach Ertz if he gets the start. He is priced reasonably low.
Jordan Reed (WAS) $5,000 – His price tag went up $1,000. If he stays on a healthy path, expect his salary and production rate to continue to rise. He is capable of putting up Travis Kelce type numbers all season long. He is also capable of stubbing his toe and sitting out for weeks.
Vikings DST (BAL) $2,600 – If and ONLY if Aaron Rodgers sits this one out. You will have to keep an eagle eye out for his status on Sunday. If DeShone Kizer gets the nod, I want to play linebacker for a day.
Isaiah Crowell (NYJ) $4,600 – Could this be the year he FINALLY breaks out? Highly unlikely, but there is nothing wrong with keeping the hope alive. He went nuts last week with 102 yards on 10 attempts and two scores. I like his match up almost as much as I like his chances.
In a previous article I discussed the benefits of stacking a QB and a WR/TE. While it is not fully recommended for redraft, season-long leagues, it is a gaming method in DFS that pays dividends.
- Patrick Mahomes ($6,100) and Tyreek Hill ($7,600)
- Kirk Cousins ($6,400) and Stefon Diggs ($6,900)
- Drew Brees ($7,200) and Michael Thomas ($8,600)
- Deshaun Watson ($6,300) and DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000)
Every week I will draw up recommended rosters; meant to give you a few ideas of how to balance your line up. One of last week’s was good enough for a top 50 finish in the tournaments.
The salaries are taken from Draftkings. Entering 50/50 contests is the absolute best way to win and double your money. If you decide to go all in and chase the big money, just be sure to enter a few 50/50s to ensure you win your money back. I wish you good luck and good fortune.
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