Fantasy Football

DFS Week 3: By the Numbers

DFS Week 3: By the Numbers

By: Jamy Bechler @WinningDFS101

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the NFL main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite Stud

Ezekiel Elliott, RB (DAL): $8,800 vs. MIA – Zeke looks to be getting back in the swing of things after missing all of Cowboys training camp. He had 25 touches last week (23 rushes and 2 catches) for 120 yards and a touchdown. This week the Cowboys are a 21.5-point home favorite against the Dolphins. This could easily be a multiple touchdown game for Zeke as he sees 30+ touches. With Michael Gallup out, there is even more opportunity for him in the passing game. Even in a blowout, his floor should be safe. A blowout would probably mean that he did all of his damage in the first half. A surprise close game would mean that he’d be relied on for the whole game.

Favorite Core Play

Greg Olsen, TE (CAR): $3,700 vs. ARI – Olsen has seen nine targets in each of the first two weeks. Last week, he caught six of them for 110 yards. Now he gets a great matchup with Arizona, who gave up a 6-131-1 stat line to rookie T.J. Hockenson in Week 1 and an 8-112-1 line to Mark Andrews in Week 2 (Hayden Hurst also caught a touchdown). There is no such thing as a safe TE but Olsen checks all the other boxes. Great matchup? Check. Consistent volume? Check. Cheap price? Check. I will be starting all my single-entry and 3-max lineups with him. For my MME lineups, I will be splitting it up evenly between him, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Zach Ertz, and Evan Engram.

Favorite Value

Emmanuel Sanders, WR (DEN): $4,800 vs. GB – He is underpriced relative to his talent, his productivity, and where he was priced last year. DK must not yet be a believer that he is healed from his Achilles injury because he is priced significantly lower than he was last year. After two games last year he had a stat line of 14-231-1 for 48.4 DKFP. His price was $6,400 going into Week 3 ($7,100 going into Week 4). He has quietly put up a similar stat line this year of 16-184-2 for 46.1 DKFP. Yet he is priced much lower. He is a bargain right now.

Favorite Punt

Nelson Agholor, WR (PHI): $3,600 vs. DET – I am not sure that he qualifies as a punt play since we are not really crossing our fingers and hoping that he works out. He may end up being one of the highest owned players on the slate but gives us a ton of salary relief with a strong projected floor. He has a bargain basement price and his role is expected to be huge in this Eagles offense on Sunday.

DeSean Jackson is expected to miss Sunday’s game, while Alshon Jeffery is questionable to suit up. This leaves Agholor as the potential #1 WR but we get him at a #3 price. The pricing came out before the injuries in the Sunday night game. Agholor took advantage of this putting together the seventh best WR fantasy performance of the week with 27.7 DKFP. He put up an 8-121-1 stat line on 11 targets. He and Greg Olsen will be the building blocks of my main cash game lineup this week.

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. Julio Jones has scored a touchdown in six straight games. He has a total of eight touchdowns during that streak. Even though his 30.6 DKFP was the third highest mark for a WR in Week 2, he is only the sixth highest priced WR on the slate.
  2. Seven players saw a decrease of at least seven targets from Week 1 to Week 2. Those seven players were Jamison Crowder (17-to-6), Danny Amendola (13-1); Robert Woods (13-2), Donte Moncrief (10-1), KeeSean Johnson (10-2), George Kittle (10-3), and Julian Edelman (11-4).
  3. James Washington played the second-most snaps at WR for the Steelers in Week 2. Though JuJu Smith-Schuster is the unquestioned #1 WR in Pittsburgh, Washington’s snap count combined with Mason Rudolph taking over the starting spot makes for some interesting prospects. Washington and Rudolph were teammates at Oklahoma State University and combined for nearly 4,200 yards and 35 touchdowns during their four seasons together. Additionally, Rudolph had four touchdown passes this preseason and two of them were to Washington.
  4. Coming into this season, Austin Ekeler had 0.12 catches per snap in his career (per Adam Levitan of EstablishTheRun). In other words, he catches 12 passes for every 100 snaps that he plays. So far this year, he has played on 95 snaps and has caught 12 balls.
  5. Of the top-15 leaders in receiving yards that are on the main slate this week, more than half of them (eight) are priced under 6k on DraftKings. Those players (in rank order) are John Ross, Marquise Brown, Michael Gallup, Mark Andrews, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Demarcus Robinson. 
  6. Through two weeks of the season, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are the only Quarterbacks that have thrown at least seven touchdowns with zero interceptions and completed at least 70% of their passes. In fact, they are the first players in NFL history to do this. What do you know, they get to play against each other this week in Kansas City.

Top Scoring DFS Players (Week 2)

  • Damarcus Robinson, WR (KC): 38.2 points
  • New England DST: 37.0 points
  • Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC): 35.6 points
  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 33.8 points
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 31.1 points
  • Odell Beckham, WR (CLE): 31.1 points
  • Julio Jones, WR (ATL): 30.6 points
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 29.1 points
  • Emmanuel Sanders, WR (DEN): 28.8 points
  • Kenny Golladay, WR (DET): 28.7 points

Highest Owned DFS Players (Week 2 Milly Maker)

  • Alvin Kamara, RB (NO): $8,200 @ LAR (39.1%)
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): $6,100 @ DET (38.2%)
  • Tyrell Williams, WR (OAK): $4,400 vs. KC (30.3%)
  • Sammy Watkins, WR (KC): $7,200 @ OAK (25.1%)
  • Darren Waller, TE (OAK): $3,300 vs. KC (24.7%)
  • Josh Jacobs, RB (OAK): $3,300 vs. KC (21.9%)
  • John Brown, WR (BUF): $5,200 @ NYJ (20.7%)
  • New England DST: $3,700 @ MIA (20.3%)
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR (PIT): $7,500 vs. SEA (18.5%)
  • Houston DST: $2,800 vs. JAC (17.5%)

RB Touches (Week 2)

  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 31 vs. CLE
  • Aaron Jones (GB): 27 vs. MIN
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 25 @ WAS
  • Peyton Barber (TB): 24 @ CAR
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC): 23 @ DET
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 23 @ GB
  • Marlon Mack (IND): 22 @ TEN
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 22 @ NYJ
  • Frank Gore (BUF): 21 @ NYG
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG): 21 vs. BUF
  • Sony Michel (NE): 21 @ MIA

RB Total Touches (Season)

  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 54
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 47
  • Marlon Mack (IND): 47
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 46
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 42
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC): 41
  • Aaron Jones (GB): 41
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 41

Target Leaders (Week 2)

  • Zach Ertz (PHI): 16 vs. ATL
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 15 @ DET
  • D.J. Moore (CAR): 14 vs. TB
  • Curtis Samuel (CAR): 13 vs. TB
  • Emmanuel Sanders (DEN): 13 vs. CHI
  • Marquise Brown (BAL): 13 vs. ARI
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 13 @ LAR
  • Sammy Watkins (KC): 13 @ OAK
  • Tyler Lockett (SEA): 12 @ PIT
  • Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): 11 @ BAL
  • Nelson Agholor (PHI): 11 @ ATL

Target Leaders (Season)

  • Michael Thomas (NO): 26
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 25
  • D.J. Moore (CAR): 24
  • Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): 24
  • Sammy Watkins (KC): 24

Notable Snap Counts (Week 2)

  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 100% vs. TB
  • Demarcus Robinson, WR (KC): 94% @ OAK
  • Mecole Hardman, WR (KC): 74% @ OAK
  • Marquise Brown, WR (BAL): 65% vs. ARI
  • Mark Andrews, TE (BAL): 54% vs. ARI
  • Kerryon Johnson, RB (DET): 54% vs. DET
  • Josh Jacobs, RB (OAK): 46% vs. KC

Week 2 DK DFS Milly Maker Lineup

Week 2 FD DFS Sunday Millions Lineup

Highest Projected Scoring Games

  • Baltimore @ Kansas City (51.5 o/u)
  • New Orleans @ Seattle (50.0 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games

  • Cincinnati @ Buffalo (40.5 o/u)
  • Oakland @ Minnesota (43.0 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Workhorse Running Backs

  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): $8,900 vs. MIA (21.5 points)
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): $7,800 vs. OAK (8.5 points)
  • Aaron Jones (GB): $6,100 vs. DEN (8 points)
  • Chris Carson (SEA): $5,900 vs. NO (4.5 points)

Home Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Dak Prescott (DAL): $6,500 vs. MIA (34.5 points)
  • Tom Brady (NE): $6,600 vs. NYJ (33.5 points)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): $7,600 vs. BAL (31.0 points)
  • Jameis Winston (TAM): $5,400 vs. NYG (27.5 points)
  • Carson Wentz (PHI): $5,600 vs. DET (27.0 points)
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): $5,100 vs. OAK (26.0 points)

Highest Projected DFS Ownership (by position)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): $7,000 @ KC (12-14%)
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $8,700 @ ARI (29-32%)
  • Chris Carson, RB (SEA): $5,900 vs. NO (22-24%)
  • Nelson Agholor, WR (PHI): $3,600 vs. DET (29-32%)
  • Julio Jones, WR (ATL): $7,300 @ IND (19-22%)
  • Keenan Allen, WR (LAC): $7,000 vs. HOU (17-20%)
  • Evan Engram, TE (NYG): $5,200 @ TB (15-18%)
  • Emmanuel Sanders, WR-Flex (DEN): $4,800 @ GB (17-19%)
  • New England Patriots DST: $3,800 vs. NYJ (14-16%)

DraftKings DFS Values (vs. FD price)

  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): 14th DK ($5,700) vs. 7th FD ($7,800)
  • Carson Wentz, QB (PHI): 16th DK ($5,600) vs. 10th FD ($7,700)
  • Teddy Bridgewater, QB (NO): 28th DK ($4,700) vs. 21st FD ($6,800)
  • Phillip Lindsay, RB (DEN): 34th DK ($4,300) vs. 19th FD ($6,400)
  • Mark Ingram, RB (BAL): 15th DK ($5,700) vs. 9th FD ($7,100)
  • T.Y. Hilton, WR (IND): 17th DK ($6,400) vs. 11th FD ($7,400)
  • John Ross, WR (CIN): 32nd DK ($5,100) vs. 21st FD ($6,700)
  • Demarcus Robinson, WR (KC): 30th DK ($5,200) vs. 20th FD ($6,700)
  • Greg Olsen, TE (CAR): 13th DK ($3,700) vs. 7th FD ($6,100)

FanDuel DFS Values (vs. DK price)

  • Kyler Murray, QB (ARI): 18th FD ($7,200) vs. 13th DK ($5,800)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo, QB (SF): 17th FD ($7,200) vs. 7th DK ($6,200)
  • LeSean McCoy, RB (KC): 34th FD ($5,500) vs. 23rd DK ($5,000)
  • Matt Breida, RB (SF): 26th FD ($5,900) vs. 18th DK ($5,400)
  • John Brown, WR (BUF): 38th FD ($5,900) vs. 27th DK ($5,500)
  • Tyler Boyd, WR (CIN): 24th FD ($6,600) vs. 16th DK ($6,500)
  • Marquise Brown, WR (BAL): 33rd FD ($6,100) vs. 22nd DK ($5,900)
  • Marvin Jones, WR (DET): 46th FD ($5,400) vs. 33rd DK ($5,000)

Notable DFS Salary Increases

  • Jaylen Samuels, RB (PIT): $5,300 @ SF (+$1,700)
  • Demarcus Robinson, WR (KC): $5,200 vs. BAL (+$1,700)
  • Tyrell Williams, WR (OAK): $5,600 @ MIN (+$1,200)
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): $7,200 vs. HOU (+$1,100)
  • Josh Allen, QB (BUF): $5,900 vs. CIN (+$600)

Notable DFS Salary Decreases

  • George Kittle, TE (PIT): $5,600 vs. PIT (-$1,200)
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $8,700 @ ARI (-$700)
  • Carson Wentz, QB (PHI): $5,600 vs. DET (-$700)
  • Julian Edelman, WR (NE): $6,300 vs. NYJ (-$600)
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR (PIT): $6,900 @ SF (-$600)

Favorite DFS Plays Under 4K

  • Greg Olsen, TE (CAR): $3,700 @ ARI
  • Nelson Agholor, WR (PHI): $3,600 vs. DET
  • JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR (PHI): $3,500 vs. DET

Princess Leia Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life.

On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games (which I won at a 60% clip last year, btw, #humblebrag).  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

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Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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