DFS Week 4: By the Numbers

DFS Week 4: By the Numbers

By: Jamy Bechler @WinningDFS101

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the NFL main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite DFS Stud

Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $8,800 @ HOU – I typically gravitate toward top-tier RBs because I like predictable floors with high ceilings. My cash lineups almost always have three RBs in them. It’s slim-pickings this week on the main slate, but it will be hard for me not to load up on C-Mac. He has played nearly every snap for the Panthers and his 24.7 touches/game is second only to Le’Veon Bell. Houston is not a great matchup, but they have given up seven catches to both Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler this year. Houston likes to get pressure on the QB and that should lead to a number of quick looks from Kyle Allen. His 28.0 DKFP per game is second only to Dalvin Cook’s 29.1 at the RB position. I will be paying up for C-Mac’s floor this week in cash games.

Favorite DFS Core Play

Daniel Jones, QB (NYG): $5,300 vs. WAS – I hate to say that a rookie QB for the New York football Giants is my core play, but he was amazing last week and has a juicy matchup this week. I tend to play cheap mobile QBs in my cash games. It has been a success so far playing Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, and Kyle Allen already this year. I would consider going back to Kyle Allen this week but, even though he is mobile, he doesn’t produce with his legs like Daniel Jones does. Only Miami has given up more passing touchdowns than the nine that Washington has given up. Only four teams have given up more than the 25.4 DKFP that Washington has given up to QBs this year.

Obviously, Patrick Mahomes is the best QB option every week, but we play a salary-cap game. Jones’ price is just too low in a great matchup and he’s coming off a 39.2 DKFP performance in his first start as an NFL player. He may not have another four-touchdown performance this week but then again, we weren’t sure that Patrick Mahomes could keep it up either. This should be a shootout since both teams have suspect defenses that tend to try to stop the run but give up lots of passing opportunities.

Favorite DFS Value

Terry McLaurin, WR (WAS): $4,500 @ NYG – I hate to recommend any players from Washington, but it is hard to overlook McLaurin this week. Just like Nelson Agholor last week, McLaurin’s price was not adjusted since he played the Monday night game. As a rookie with a shaky QB situation, he is by no means a sure bet. However, he is extremely athletic (4.35 speed and a 37.5” vertical jump), has produced so far this year, and the Redskins have shown that they want to get him the ball.

McLaurin’s 20.9 DKFP average is 11th best at the WR position yet he is only the 45th most-expensive WR. He is definitely a bargain having been targeted 24 times so far this year (at least seven in each game). He has also scored three touchdowns. Only two teams have allowed more WR fantasy points than the Giants this year so McLaurin will have every opportunity to produce yet again this week.

Favorite DFS Punt

Will Dissly, TE (SEA): $3,600 @ ARI – We’ve made some money each of the last two weeks targeting Tight Ends against the Cardinals and it looks like we can go back to that well again this week. Arizona has given up stat lines of 6-131-1 to T.J. Hockenson in Week 1, 8-112-1 to Mark Andrews in Week 2, and 6-75-2 to Greg Olsen last week. Will Dissly comes into this week with three touchdowns in three weeks. He is the eighth best TE fantasy scorer this year but is only the 13th most-expensive TE. Overall, he has five touchdowns in seven career games. He’s been productive, has a great matchup, and Nick Vannett (the guy he was splitting snaps with) was just traded to Pittsburgh.

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. Houston has given up 901 passing yards this year and now gets Kyle Allen coming off 261 passing yards. He has a total of six touchdowns in his two career starts. The Texans like to pressure the QB pretty aggressively. According to Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros), Allen completed five of his nine passes for 37 yards and two touchdowns when under pressure last week. He has a decent check down option called Christian McCaffrey.
  2. Four players saw a decrease of at least eight targets from Week 2 to Week 3: D.J. Moore (14-to-2), Emmanuel Sanders (13-4), Calvin Ridley (10-1), and Bennie Fowler (10-2),
  3. Dalvin Cook is the top fantasy RB (29.1 DKFP) and is second in rushing touchdowns (4). Something has to give this week because he plays the Bears, who is one of only four teams that have yet to give up a rushing touchdown to RBs. Overall, Chicago only gives up 17.8 DKFP per game to the RB position (4th in NFL).
  4. There are five players on the main slate that are seeing at least 30% of their team’s targets: Keenan Allen (36%), Michael Thomas (31%), DeAndre Hopkins (30%), Cooper Kupp (30%), and Darren Waller (30%). Terry McLaurin’s 19% target share is the lowest of any team leader.
  5. According to John Daigle of Rotoworld, Patrick Mahomes passed for an average of 30/52, 492 yds, and 4.75 TDs in his four games indoor as a college player. This week will be his first NFL regular season game indoor.
  6. The Arizona Cardinals are the third worst team in the NFL for giving up passing yards (918), passing TDs (9), and fantasy points (30.3 DKFP). Russell Wilson is coming off a 44.3 DKFP performance when he passed for 406 yards, two touchdowns, and ran for two more. His salary was only raised $200!!!

Top Scoring DFS Players (Week 3)

  • Mike Evans, WR (TB): 48.0 DKFP
  • Keenan Allen, WR (LAC): 46.6 DKFP
  • Russell Wilson, QB (SEA): 44.3 DKFP
  • Daniel Jones, QB (NYG): 39.2 DKFP
  • Mark Ingram, RB (BAL): 38.5 DKFP
  • Alvin Kamara, RB (NO): 37.1 DKFP
  • Cooper Kupp, WR (LAR): 36.1 DKFP
  • Tyler Lockett, WR (SEA): 35.4 DKFP
  • Taylor Gabriel, WR (CHI): 32.2 DKFP
  • Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC): 30.8 DKFP

Highest Owned DFS Players (Week 3 Milly Maker)

  • Ezekiel Elliott (35.5%)
  • New England DST (33.5%)
  • Nelson Agholor (33.1%)
  • Austin Ekeler (24.4%)
  • Dalvin Cook (23.6%)
  • Christian McCaffrey (22.1%)
  • Chris Carson (21.5%)
  • Larry Fitzgerald (18.6%)
  • Mark Andrews (18.4%)
  • Dak Prescott (17.5%)

RB Total Touches (Week 3)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 27
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 27
  • Alvin Kamara (NO): 25
  • Phillip Lindsay (DEN): 25
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 22
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 21
  • Kerryon Johnson (DET): 21
  • Leonard Fournette (JAX): 21
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 20
  • Mark Ingram (BAL): 20

RB Total Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 25.3
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR); 24.7
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 23.0
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 22.0
  • Marlon Mack (IND): 21.7
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 20.0
  • Alvin Kamara (NO): 19.7
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC): 19.0
  • Leonard Fournette (JAX): 19.0
  • Phillip Lindsay (DEN): 19.0

Target Leaders (Week 3)

  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 17
  • Mike Evans (TB): 15
  • Tyler Lockett (SEA): 14
  • Darren Waller (OAK): 14
  • Nelson Agholor (PHI): 12
  • Preston Williams (MIA): 12
  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 12
  • Brandin Cooks (LAR): 12
  • Christian Kirk (LAR): 12
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 11
  • Josh Gordon (NE): 11

Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 14.0
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 11.0
  • Sammy Watkins (KC): 10.7
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 10.7
  • Christian Kirk (ARI): 10.7
  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 10.3
  • Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): 10.3
  • Julio Jones (ATL): 10.0
  • Zach Ertz (PHI): 10.0
  • Odell Beckham (CLE): 10.0
  • Evan Engram (NYG): 10.0

Notable Snap Counts (Week 3)

  • George Kittle, TE (SF): 100%
  • John Ross, WR (CIN): 100%
  • Preston Williams, WR (MIA): 96%
  • Phillip Dorsett, WR (NE): 92%
  • James Washington, WR (PIT): 92%
  • Devonta Freeman, RB (ATL): 90%
  • Demetrius Harris, TE (CLE): 90%
  • O.J. Howard, TE (TB): 75%
  • Kerryon Johnson, RB (DET): 75%
  • Todd Gurley, RB (LAR): 73%

Week 3 DFS DK Milly Maker Lineup

Week 3 DFS FD Sunday Millions Lineup

Highest Projected Scoring Games

  • Kansas City @ Detroit (54.5 o/u)
  • Tampa Bay @ Los Angeles Rams (49.5 o/u)
  • Washington @ NY Giants (49.0 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games

  • Jacksonville @ Denver (38.0 o/u)
  • Minnesota @ Chicago (38.0 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Workhorse Running Backs

  • Todd Gurley (LAR): $7,000 vs. TB (9.0 points)
  • Mark Ingram (BAL): $ 6,600 vs. CLE (6.5 points)
  • Marlon Mack (IND): $6,100 vs. OAK (6.5 points)

Home Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Jared Goff (LAR): $6,300 vs. TB (29.25 points)
  • Jacoby Brissett (IND): $5,400 vs. OAK (26.0 points)

Highest Projected DFS Ownership (by position)

  • Daniel Jones, QB (NYG): $5,300 vs. WAS (11-14%)
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $8,800 @ HOU (35-37%)
  • Wayne Gallman, RB (NYG): $4,600 vs. WAS (33-35%)
  • Keenan Allen, WR (LAC): $7,600 @ MIA (30-32%)
  • Terry McLaurin, WR (WAS): $4,500 @ NYG (24-26%)
  • Tyler Lockett, WR (SEA): $6,300 @ ARI (17-20%)
  • Will Dissly, TE (SEA): $3,600 @ ARI (16-19%)
  • David Johnson, FLEX-RB (ARI): $6,800 vs. SEA (20-23%)
  • Los Angeles Chargers DST: $3,800 @ MIA (15-18%)

Over-Priced DK Plays (price vs. DKFP average)

  • Jared Goff, QB (LAR): 5th Price ($6,300) vs. 21st Scoring (15.9)
  • Baker Mayfield 10th Price ($5,800) vs. 25th Scoring (14.0)
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR (HOU): 2nd Price ($7,700) vs. 19th Scoring (18.6)
  • Adam Thielen, WR (MIN): 8th Price ($6,600) vs. 30th Scoring (15.5)
  • Todd Gurley, RB (LAR): 6th Price ($7,000) vs. 32nd Scoring (10.4)
  • O.J. Howard, TE (TB): 10th Price ($3,900) vs. 28th Scoring (5.3)
  • Trey Burton, TE (CHI): 11th Price ($3,800) vs. 31st Scoring (4.2)
  • New York Giants DST: 4th Price ($3,600) vs. 30th Scoring (1.0)

Under-Priced DK Plays (price vs. DKFP average)

  • Kyle Allen, QB (CAR): 18th Price ($5,200) vs. 6th Scoring (25.3)
  • Case Keenum, QB (WAS): 23rd Price ($4,900) vs. 10th Scoring (22.2)
  • D.J. Chark, WR (JAC): 31st Price ($5,100) vs. 8th Scoring (21.2)
  • Terry McLaurin, WR (WAS): 45th Price ($4,500) vs. 11th Scoring (20.9)
  • Will Dissly, TE (SEA): 13th Price ($3,600) vs. 8th Scoring (14.1)
  • Tampa Bay DST: 23rd Price ($2,100) vs. 7th Scoring (9.7)

DraftKings Values (vs. FD price)

  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): 9th DK ($5,900) vs. 4th FD ($7,900)
  • Marlon Mack, RB (IND): 11th DK ($6,100) vs. 6th FD ($7,300)
  • Phillip Lindsay, RB (DEN): 19th DK ($5,200) vs. 10th FD ($6,900)
  • Justin Jackson, RB (LAC): 41st DK ($4,100) vs. 19th FD ($6,200)
  • T.Y. Hilton, WR (IND): 11th DK ($6,400) vs. 7th FD ($7,400)
  • Brandin Cooks, WR (LAR): 13th DK ($6,200) vs. 8th FD ($7,300)
  • Robert Woods, WR (LAR): 14th DK ($6,100) vs. 9th FD ($7,100)
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 15th DK ($6,000) vs. 10th FD ($7,100)
  • Allen Robinson, WR (CHI): 22nd on DK ($5,600) vs. 11th on FD ($7,000)
  • Demarcus Robinson, WR (KC): 28th DK ($5,200) vs. 16th FD ($6,700)
  • Mecole Hardman, WR (KC): 32nd DK ($5,100) vs. 20th FD ($6,500)
  • Mike Williams, WR (LAC): 37th DK ($4,800) vs. 26th FD ($6,100)
  • Phillip Dorsett, WR (NE): 40th DK ($4,700) vs. 31st FD ($5,900)
  • Terry McLaurin, WR (WAS): 45th DK ($4,500) vs. 22nd FD ($6,300)
  • J.J. Nelson, WR (OAK): 65th DK ($3,600) vs. 48th FD ($5,200)
  • T.J. Hockenson, TE (DET): 19th DK ($3,300) vs. 13th FD ($5,200)
  • Jordan Akins, TE (HOU): 23rd DK ($3,100) vs. 15th FD ($5,100)
  • Ricky Seals-Jones, TE (CLE): 33rd DK ($2,800) vs. 17th FD ($5,100)
  • Denver Broncos DST: 14th DK ($2,900) vs. 9th FD ($4,100)

FanDuel Values (vs. DK price)

  • Jared Goff, QB (LAR): 9th FD ($7,700) vs. 5th DK ($6,300)
  • Kyle Allen, QB (CAR): 22nd FD ($6,800) vs. 18th DK ($5,200)
  • Todd Gurley, RB (LAR): 11th FD ($6,800) vs. 6th DK ($7,000)
  • David Johnson, RB (ARI): 12th FD ($6,800) vs. 7th DK ($6,800)
  • Chris Thompson, RB (WAS): 36th FD ($5,300) vs. 27th DK ($4,500)
  • Darwin Thompson, RB (KC): 111th FD ($4,500) vs. 36th DK ($4,500)
  • Adam Thielen, WR (MIN): 12th FD ($7,000) vs. 8th DK ($6,600)
  • Cooper Kupp, WR (LAR): 13th FD ($7,000) vs. 10th DK ($6,500)
  • Sammy Watkins, WR (KC): 15th FD ($6,900) vs. 7th DK ($6,700)
  • Tyler Lockett, WR (SEA): 18th on FD ($6,600) vs. 12th on DK ($6,300)
  • Josh Gordon, WR (NE): 23rd FD ($6,200) vs. 16th DK ($5,900)
  • Tyrell Williams, WR (OAK): 32nd FD ($5,900) vs. 20h DK ($5,700)
  • Marquise Brown, WR (BAL): 39th FD ($5,700) vs. 19th DK ($5,800)
  • Delanie Walker, TE (TEN): 9th FD ($5,700) vs. 5th DK ($4,800)
  • Trey Burton, TE (CHI): 18th FD ($4,900) vs. 11th DK ($3,800)
  • Kyle Rudolph, TE (MIN): 22nd FD ($4,600) vs. 15th DK ($3,500)
  • A.J. Brown, WR (TEN): 75th FD ($4,700) vs. 62nd DK ($3,700)
  • NY Giants DST: 13th FD ($3,800) vs. 4th DK ($3,600)

Notable DK Salary Increases

  • Kyle Allen, QB (CAR): $5,200 @ HOU (+1,200)
  • Daniel Jones, QB (NYG): $5,300 vs. WAS (only +300)
  • Darrel Williams, RB (KC): $4,700 @ DET (+1,700)
  • Wayne Gallman, RB (NYG): $4,600 vs. WAS (+1,100)
  • Jalen Richard, RB (OAK): $4,000 @ IND (+1,000)
  • C.J. Prosise, RB (SEA): $4,000 @ ARI (+1,000)
  • Mark Ingram, RB (BAL): $6,600 vs. CLE (+900)
  • Phillip Lindsay, RB (DEN): $5,200 vs. JAC (+900)
  • Phillip Dorsett, WR (NE): $4,700 @ BUF (+1,300)
  • Parris Campbell, WR (IND): $4,900 vs. OAK (+1,100)
  • Sterling Shepard, WR (WAS): $5,800 vs. WAS (+900)
  • Darren Waller, TE (OAK): $5,200 @ IND (+1,100)
  • Jack Doyle, TE (IND): $3,700 vs. OAK (+700)
  • Will Dissly, TE (SEA): $3,600 @ ARI (only +200)
  • Los Angeles Chargers DST: $3,800 @ MIA (+1,300)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars DST: $3,700 @ DEN (+900)

Notable DK Salary Decreases

  • Josh Allen, QB (BUF): $5,600 vs. NE (-300)
  • Nick Chubb, RB (CLE): $6,400 @ BAL (-500)
  • Sony Michel, RB (NE): $5,500 @ BUF (-500)
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): $6,000 @ LAR (-900)
  • Kenny Golladay, WR (DET): $5,900 vs. KC (-700)
  • Demetrius Harris, TE (CLE): $2,500 @ BAL (-600)
  • Buffalo Bills DST: $2,600 vs. NE (-800)

Notable FD Salary Increases

  • Daniel Jones, QB (NYG): $7,300 vs. WAS (+1300)
  • Kyle Allen, QB (CAR): $6,800 @ HOU (+800)
  • Wayne Gallman, RB (NYG): $5,800 vs. WAS (+1,300)
  • Rex Burkhead, RB (NE): $5,600 @ BUF (+1,000)
  • LeSean McCoy, RB (KC): $6,300 @ DET (+800)
  • Mark Ingram, RB (BAL): $7,800 vs. CLE (+700)
  • Phillip Dorsett, WR (NE): $5,900 @ BUF (+900)
  • Jordan Akins, TE (HOU): $5,100 vs. CAR (+1,000)
  • Darren Waller, TE (OAK): $6,700 @ IND (+800)
  • Los Angeles Chargers DST: $5,300 @ MIA (+1,500)

Notable FD Salary Decreases

  • Baker Mayfield, QB (CLE): $7,500 @ BAL (-700)
  • Sony Michel, RB (NE): $6,100 @ BUF (-700)
  • Nick Chubb, RB (CLE): $7,800 @ BAL (-500)
  • Adrian Peterson, RB (WAS): ($5,500 @ NYG (-500)
  • Josh Jacobs, RB (OAK): $6,000 @ IND (-500)
  • Calvin Ridley, WR (ATL): $5,800 vs. TEN (-700)
  • Stefon Diggs, WR (MIN): $6,100 @ CHI (-600)
  • Odell Beckham, WR (CLE): $7,900 @ BAL (-600)
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): $7,100 @ LAR (-500)
  • Mark Anderson, TE (BAL): $6,100 vs. CLE (-700)
  • Buffalo Bills DST: $3,400 vs. NE (-1,200)

Favorite DFS Punt Plays (under 4K)

  • Preston Williams, WR (MIA): $3,900 vs. LAC
  • Paul Richardson, WR (WAS): $3,700 @ NYG
  • Will Dissly, TE (SEA): $3,600 @ ARI
  • J.J. Nelson, WR (OAK): $3,600 @ IND
  • T.J. Hockenson, TE (DET): $3,300 vs. KC
  • Darius Slayton, WR (NYG): $3,200 vs. WAS
  • Trey Quinn, WR (WAS): $3,000 @ NYG

Princess Leia DFS Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life.

On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games (which I won at a 60% clip last year and at an 80% clip so far this year, btw, #humblebrag).  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

For more Fantasy Football content visit CouchPotatoGM.com

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@WinningDFS101

Author: @WinningDFS101