DFS Week 5: By the Numbers

DFS

DFS Week 5: By the Numbers

By: Jamy Bechler @WinningDFS101

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the NFL main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite DFS Stud

Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $8,700 vs JAC – He is playing 98% of Carolina’s snaps. Last week he got 37 touches. On the season, he leads the NFL with 27.8 touches per game. McCaffrey is pricey but still not where he could end up if he keeps playing like he has been. He is a great RB and a great WR (he would have the 8th most receptions if he was a WR). McCaffrey scored 33.9 DKFP last week despite the Panthers only scoring 16 points.

He is a stud. I will gladly pay this price for his floor, with the hope that he has another ceiling game. He is averaging 29.5 fantasy points on the season. He actually went down $100 in salary from last week because he is playing against a good defense but then again, Nick Chubb was also playing against a great run defense and exploded for 44.2 DKFP.

Favorite DFS Core Play

Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): $6,700 vs. DEN –  I know, I know, Melvin Gordon is coming back. Certainly, this could cut into Ekeler’s opportunities, but he is still the second-highest fantasy scoring RB (27.0) and is only the ninth most-expensive RB. In a vacuum, that makes him a good value. I am going to roll the dice that people will be scared to play him, and his ownership will be low.

There is no guarantee that Gordon will see the bulk of the snaps. Ekeler is too talented and the Chargers are too banged up to think that Ekeler will just stand on the sidelines. Also, remember that Gordon didn’t exactly end last season on a high note as he only averaged 53 rushing yards per game over his final four games. This included 18 for 69 and a 10 for 42-yard performance against the Broncos.  

Favorite DFS Value

Michael Thomas, WR (NO): $6,600 vs. TB – Even though Teddy Bridgewater has been playing QB for the Saints the last two games, Thomas has still been able to produce. It is not great, but he has caught 14 of his 16 targets for 149 yards and a touchdown. Now, he gets a Tampa Bay defense that is not very good against the pass. The Bucs have given up the most receptions, second most receiving yards, and the fifth most fantasy points to WRs.

This is a good matchup for a guy that leads the NFL with 33.6% of his team’s targets. In his two games against Tampa Bay last year, he combined for 27 catches for 278 yards and a touchdown. He is priced as low as he’s ever been. Despite being the fifth best fantasy WR on the main slate (19.7 DKFP), he is only the 10th highest priced WR.

Favorite DFS Punt Play

Auden Tate, WR (CIN): $3,500 vs. ARI – He is definitely not the burner that John Ross is but is still a physical specimen at 6’5”, 230 pounds. He gets, arguably, the worst defense in the league that forces everyone to play at a much faster pace. Tate has seen 16 targets in the last two games while playing 91% of the snaps. A good matchup at near minimum price makes Tate a very good option this week.  

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. Four players saw a drop of at least 8 targets from Week 3 to Week 4 including Keenan Allen (17-to-6), Nelson Agholor (12-1), Tyler Lockett (14-4), and Mike Evans (15-7).
  2. There are three RBs that have played at least 90% of their team’s snaps this season: Christian McCaffrey (98%), Le’Veon Bell (96%), and Leonard Fournette (91%). They are not just getting snaps but are being utilized, as well. Each of the three are ranked in the top four in total RB touches on the season
  3. The New England Patriots finally gave up their first defensive touchdown of the season. Their 21.5 DKFP are 8.5 points more than the second-best DST (Chicago Bears). They are tied for 16th in overall fantasy points per game. This week, they face the Redskins who just gave up 24 defensive points to the Chicago Bears. On the year, the Patriots have 10 interceptions and three defensive touchdown returns.
  4. In Week 4 of the 2018 season, 10 of the 12 highest priced WRs earned double-digit fantasy points. In Week 4 of this year, only three (Cooper Kupp, Kenny Golladay, and Sterling Shepard) of the 12 highest-priced WRs reached double-digit fantasy points (per Anthony Scarpulla from GutCheckDFS).
  5. Per Adam Levitan of EstablishTheRun, Larry Fitzgerald (36 yrs. old) leads the NFL in targets inside the 10-yard line with six. Emmanuel Sanders (32 yrs. old) leads the NFL with eight red zone targets.
  6. Matt Ryan is the only QB with 300+ passing yards in all four games this season. After quietly finishing as the second-best fantasy QB last year, he is fifth in DK points (23.7 per game). He is only $5,900 this week.

Top Scoring DFS Players (Week 4)

  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 44.2
  • Nick Chubb, RB (CLE): 42.3
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 33.9
  • Jameis Winston, QB (TB): 33.3
  • Jordan Howard, RB (PHI): 32.5
  • Robert Woods, WR (LAR): 32.4
  • Davante Adams, WR (GB): 31.0
  • Aaron Rodgers, QB (GB): 30.5
  • Cooper Kupp, WR (LAR): 29.9
  • Leonard Fournette, RB (JAC): 29.5

Top Scoring DFS Players (Season by Position)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 29.6
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 29.5
  • Keenan Allen, WR (LAC): 25.9
  • Evan Engram, TE (NYG): 19.5
  • Austin Ekeler, RB-Flex (LAC): 27.0
  • New England Patriots DST: 21.5

Highest Owned DFS Players (Week 4 Milly Maker)

  • Keenan Allen, WR (LAC): 38.26%
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): 29.81%
  • Will Dissly, TE (SEA): 27.01%
  • Tyler Lockett, WR (SEA): 23.86%
  • Mark Ingram, RB (BAL): 23.75%
  • Evan Engram, TE (NYG): 23.55%
  • Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC): 23.05%
  • Paul Richardson, WR (WAS): 23.04%
  • Marlon Mack, RB (IND): 22.18%
  • Sterling Shepard, WR (NYG): 21.80%

RB Total Touches (Week 4)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 37
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 31
  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 28
  • Kerryon Johnson (DET): 28
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 26
  • David Montgomery (CHI): 24
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 24
  • Wayne Gallman (NYG): 24
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC): 23
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 23

RB Total Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 27.8
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 25.2
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 23.0
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 22.0
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 21.5
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 21.0
  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 20.8
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 20.2
  • Kerryon Johnson (DET): 20.2
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC): 20.0

Target Leaders (Week 4)

  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 15
  • Davante Adams (GB): 15
  • Robert Woods (LAR): 15
  • Chris Godwin (TB): 14
  • Cole Beasley (BUF): 13
  • Mohamed Sanu (ATL): 12
  • Austin Hooper (ATL): 11
  • David Johnson (ARI): 11
  • John Brown (BUF): 11
  • Todd Gurley (LAR): 11

Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 11.8
  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 11.5
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 10.5
  • Robert Woods (LAR): 9.5
  • Sammy Watkins (KC): 9.5
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 9.5
  • Zach Ertz (PHI): 9.5
  • Jamison Crowder (NYJ): 9.3
  • Darren Waller (OAK):9.3
  • Evan Engram (NYG): 9.2
  • Julio Jones (ATL): 9.2
  • Odell Beckham (NYG): 9.2

Week 4 DFS DK Milly Maker Lineup

Week 4 DFS FD Sunday Millions Lineup

Highest Projected Scoring Game

  • Atlanta @ Houston (49.0 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games

  • Buffalo @ Tennessee (38.5 o/u)
  • Chicago @ Oakland (40.5 o/u)
  • Jacksonville @ Carolina (41.0 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Running Backs

  • Austin Ekeler (LAC): $6,700 vs. DEN (6.5 points)
  • Jordan Howard (PHI): $5,100 vs. NYJ (14 points)

Home Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Carson Wentz (PHI): $6,100 vs. NYJ (28.5 points)
  • Matt Ryan (ATL): $5,900 vs. HOU (27.0 points)

Highest Projected DFS Ownership (by position)

  • Deshaun Watson, QB (HOU): $6,700 vs. ATL (13-15%)
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $8,700 vs. JAC (25-28%)
  • Leonard Fournette, RB (JAC): $6,400 @ CAR (22-24%)
  • Keenan Allen, WR (LAC): $7,300 vs. DEN (27-29%)
  • Larry Fitzgerald, WR (ARI): $6,000 @ CIN (24-26%)
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): $6,600 vs. TB (18-20%)
  • Tyler Eifert, TE (CIN): $3,300 vs. ARI (18-21%)
  • Dalvin Cook, RB-flex (MIN): $8,400 @ NYG (21-23%)
  • Carolina Panthers DST: $2,600 vs. JAC (17-19%)

Over-Priced DK Plays (price vs. DKFP average)

  • Joe Mixon, RB (CIN): 39th scoring (9.3) vs. 13th price ($6,100)
  • Julian Edelman, WR (NE): 40th scoring (12.9) vs. 18th price ($6,300)
  • Juju Smith-Schuster, WR (PIT): 44th scoring (12.2) vs. 17th price ($6,600)
  • Adam Thielen, WR (MIN): 44th scoring (12.2) vs. 12th price ($6,700)
  • Allen Robinson, WR (CHI): 43rd scoring (10.0) vs. 16th price ($6,900)
  • Jared Cook, TE (NO): 37th scoring (4.2) vs. 19th price ($3,400)
  • O.J. Howard, TE (TB): 30th scoring (5.5) vs. 13th price ($3,900)

Under-Priced DK Plays (price vs. DKFP average)

  • Daniel Jones, QB (NYG): 19th price ($5,600) vs. 3rd scoring (26.8 last 2 games)
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): 9th price ($6,700) vs. 2nd scoring (27.0)
  • D.J. Chark, WR (JAC): 43rd price ($5,000) vs. 15th scoring (18.0)
  • Courtland Sutton, WR (DEN): 46th price ($4,900) vs. 21st scoring (17.0)
  • Sterling Shepard, WR (NYG): 25th price ($5,900) vs. 13th scoring (19.1)
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): 8th price ($4,500) vs. 2nd scoring (18.4)
  • Jordan Akins, TE (HOU):  28th price ($3,200) vs. 15th scoring (8.6)

 DraftKings Values (vs. FD price)

  • Dak Prescott, QB (DAL): 8th DK ($6,000) vs. 2nd FD ($8,200)
  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): 10th DK ($5,900) vs. 6th FD ($7,700)
  • Teddy Bridgewater, QB (NO): 19th DK ($5,200) vs. 13th FD ($7,200)
  • Joe Flacco, QB (DEN): 29th DK ($4,700) vs. 20th FD ($6,600)
  • Mark Ingram, RB (BAL): 11th DK ($6,300) vs. 5th FD ($7,500)
  • Joe Mixon, RB (CIN): 13th DK ($6,100) vs. 8th FD ($7,100)
  • Jordan Howard, RB (PHI): 20th DK ($5,100) vs. 16th FD ($6,500)
  • Phillip Lindsay, RB (DEN): 22nd DK ($4,900) vs. 15th FD ($6,700)
  • Josh Jacobs, RB (OAK): 30th DK ($4,500) vs. 21st FD ($6,000)
  • Miles Sanders, RB (PHI): 31st DK ($4,500) vs. 22nd FD ($6,000)
  • Carlos Hyde, RB (HOU): 35th DK ($4,300) vs. 27th FD ($5,600)
  • Peyton Barber, RB (TB): 35th DK ($4,300) vs. 28th FD ($5,500)
  • Adrian Peterson, RB (MIN): 43rd DK ($3,900) vs. 33rd FD ($5,300)
  • Latavius Murray, RB (NO): 48th DK ($3,700) vs. 36th FD ($5,200)
  • Jalen Richard, RB (OAK); 49th DK ($3,700) vs. 40th FD ($5,000)
  • Amari Cooper, WR (DAL): 7th DK ($6,800) vs. 4th FD ($7,900)
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 10th DK ($6,600) vs. 7th FD ($7,700)
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR (PIT): 12th DK ($6,400) vs. 9th FD ($7,300)
  • Allen Robinson, WR (CHI): 21st DK ($5,600) vs. 11th FD ($6,900)
  • Will Fuller, WR (HOU): 42nd DK ($4,500) vs. 31st FD ($5,700)
  • Jamison Crowder, WR (NYJ): 50th DK ($4,300) vs. 29th FD ($5,800)
  • Mohamed Sanu, WR (ATL): 52nd DK ($4,200) vs. 25th FD ($5,900)
  • A.J. Brown, WR (TEN): 52nd DK ($4,200) vs. 36th FD ($5,600)
  • Auden Tate, WR (CIN): 74th DK ($3,500) vs. 49th FD ($5,300)
  • Trey Quinn, WR (WAS): 74th DK ($3,500) vs. 53rd FD ($5,100)
  • Devin Smith, WR (DAL): 79th DK ($3,400) vs. 61st FD ($4,900)
  • J.J. Nelson, WR (OAK): 79th DK ($3,400) vs. 56th FD ($5,000)
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): 5th DK ($4,500) vs. 1st FD ($6,700)
  • Lance Kendricks, TE (LAC): 37th DK ($2,700) vs. 14th FD ($5,100)
  • Tennessee DST: 10th DK ($3,000) vs. 4th FD ($4,800)
  • Los Angeles Chargers DST: 15th DK ($2,700) vs. 5th FD ($4,600)

FanDuel Values (vs. DK price)

  • Tom Brady, QB (NE): 8th FD ($7,600) vs. 3rd DK ($6,500)
  • Jameis Winston, QB (TB): 8th FD ($7,600) vs. 5th DK ($6,200)
  • Kyler Murray, QB (ARI): 12th FD ($7,400) vs. 4th DK ($6,300)
  • Gardner Minshew, QB (JAC): 22nd FD ($6,600) vs. 18th DK ($5,300)
  • Alvin Kamara, RB (NO): 3rd FD ($8,200) vs. 2nd DK ($8,600)
  • Melvin Gordon, RB (DEN): 11th FD ($6,800) vs. 7th DK ($7,000)
  • David Johnson, RB (ARI): 11th FD ($6,800) vs. 6th DK ($7,500)
  • David Montgomery, RB (CHI): 26th FD ($5,700) vs. 19th DK ($5,200)
  • Ty Montgomery, RB (NYJ): 55th FD ($4,600) vs. 28th DK ($4,500)
  • Dexter Williams, RB (GB): 57th FD ($4,500) vs. 38th DK ($4,200)
  • Keenan Allen, WR (LAC): 8th FD ($7,500) vs. 4th DK ($7,300)
  • Adam Thielen, WR (MIN): 12th FD ($6,900) vs. 9th DK ($6,700)
  • Josh Gordon, WR (NE): 21st FD ($6,200) vs. 15th DK ($6,100)
  • Stefon Diggs, WR (MIN): 23rd FD ($6,000) vs. 14th DK ($6,200)
  • Larry Fitzgerald, WR (ARI): 28th FD ($5,800) vs. 16th DK ($6,000)
  • Marquise Brown, WR (BAL): 44th FD ($5,400) vs. 20th DK ($5,700)
  • Dede Westbrook, WR (JAC): 48th FD ($5,300) vs. 23rd DK ($5,300)
  • Paul Richardson, WR (WAS): 70th FD ($4,700) vs. 40th DK ($4,500)
  • Golden Tate, WR (NYG): 83rd FD ($4,500) vs. 38th DK ($4,600)
  • Delanie Walker, TE (TEN): 11th FD ($5,300) vs. 8th DK ($3,900)
  • Jason Witten, TE (DAL): 15th FD ($5,000) vs. 10th DK ($3,800)
  • Tyler Eifert, TE (CIN): 25th FD ($4,600) vs. 16th DK ($3,300)
  • New Orleans DST: 14th FD ($4,000) vs. 5th DK ($3,500)
  • Houston DST: 11th FD ($4,300) vs. 6th DK ($3,300)

Notable DFS DK Salary Increases

  • Dexter Williams, RB (GB): $4,200 @ DAL (+1,200)
  • Joe Mixon, RB (CIN): $6,100 vs. ARI (+1,100)
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): $6,900 @ NO (+900)
  • Paul Richardson, WR (WAS): $4,500 vs. NE (+800)
  • Marquez Vales-Scantling, WR (GB): $5,600 @ DAL (+800)
  • Tyler Boyd, WR (CIN): $6,500 vs. ARI (+800)
  • Wayne Gallman, RB (NYG): $5,400 vs. MIN (+800)
  • David Johnson, RB (ARI): $7,500 @ CIN (+700)

Notable DFS DK Salary Decreases

  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): $6,700 vs. DEN (-1.300)
  • Los Angeles Chargers DST: $2,700 vs. DEN (-1,100)
  • Delanie Walker, TE (TEN): $3,900 vs. BUF (-900)
  • Dak Prescott, QB (DAL): $6,000 vs. GB (-800)
  • Melvin Gordon, RB (LAC): $7,000 vs. DEN (-700)
  • Phillip Lindsay, RB (DEN): $4,900 @ LAC (-700)
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): $8,400 @ NYG (-600)

Favorite DFS Plays Under 4K

  • Auden Tate, WR (CIN): $3,500 vs. ARI
  • KeeSean Johnson, WR (ARI): $3,500 @ CIN
  • Javon Wims, WR (CHI): $3,500 vs. OAK
  • Tyler Eifert, TE (CIN): $3,300 vs. ARI

Princess Leia DFS Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life.

On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games (which I won at a 60% clip last year and at an 85% clip so far this year after four weeks, btw, #humblebrag).  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

For more Fantasy Football content visit CouchPotatoGM.com

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@WinningDFS101

Author: @WinningDFS101