DFS Week 6 – By the Numbers

DFS Week 6: By the Numbers

By: Jamy Bechler @WinningDFS101

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the NFL main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite DFS Stud

Le’Veon Bell, RB (NYJ): $6,400 vs. DAL – I have no idea who will be the top scorer this week. Julio Jones is one of my favorite players and I would not be shocked if we had a Mt. St. Julio eruption spot this week. However, trusting the Falcons getting him the ball as much as they probably should will be hard. I rarely play DeAndre Hopkins, but he will be popular this week, especially with people hoping for a Fuller-like performance since Hopkins is the better player. Once again I will be fading Nuk but that could come back to bite me.

I think Kamara could have a big game as he has flown a little under the radar this year. Zeke was the guy that I first wrote up but the Jets run defense is decent and Zeke’s price is high. However, I feel like he has the clearest path to be the top-scorer this week.

The guy I am going with this week is a stud who is not priced like a stud. Bell has been consistent earning double-digit fantasy outputs in all four games this year for an average of 17.8 DKFP despite not yet having a rushing touchdown. He is due for positive regression especially with Sam Darnold coming back. Plus, the Cowboys defense is not as great as some think (28th in the league in RB fantasy points allowed). This might be a real good spot for him to remind us of why he was the best in the business when he was a Steeler. I like his talent and I like his price.

Favorite DFS Core Play

Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): $5,000 @ ARI: – Coming into this year, Hooper was extremely inconsistent, however, that has not been the case so far this year. He is the top fantasy TE this year (17.5 DKFP per game) but is only the fourth most-expensive on the main slate. The Falcons offense is a concern in terms of target share as there are a lot of mouths to feed. But this is a great match up for Hooper going against the Cardinals.

There should be a lot of plays in this game and the Cardinals are not good against TEs. No team has allowed more fantasy points to the TE position than the 24.8 DKFP that the Cardinals defense is giving up. They have also given up the most yards (461) and touchdowns (6).  I will probably have Hooper in more lineups than anyone unless we get word that David Johnson will sit out. If that is the case, then I might just hit the lock button on Chase Edmonds.   

Favorite DFS Value

Adam Thielen, WR (MIN): $6,700 vs. PHI –  It seemed that everybody that went off last week saw significant price increases (e.g. Will Fuller +1,500 and Michael Thomas +1,200) but Thielen’s price didn’t increase despite him putting up a 7-130-2 stat line (35.0 DKFP). This week he gets the Eagles, who are tough to run against but easy to throw against (28th in WR fantasy scoring allowed).

I don’t trust Mike Zimmer when it comes to this Vikings pass game but at $6,700 it is hard to see Thielen failing and his upside is still massive in this game. According to Al Zeidenfeld, only two teams have allowed more touchdown passes of 30+ yards than the Eagles this year and Thielen has caught a pass of 30+ yards in three of his past four games.

Favorite DFS Punt Play

Byron Pringle, WR (KC): $3,500 vs. HOU – Chances are we will know early Sunday morning whether or not Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins are playing. If they are, then Pringle should not be an option. However, I don’t think they are going to play and if that is the case, then Pringle is a great option at a low price in a game that is expected to be a shootout.

He came out of nowhere last week to post a 6-103-1 stat line. This is an explosive offense and so he could do something similar again. Sure, Mahomes could spread the ball around but even if he does that, at $3,500, he has very little chance of failing.  

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. Patrick Mahomes lead the NFL with 1,831 passing yards. The Houston Texans are giving up the most passing yards of any team on the main slate (1,463).
  2. Of the 40 players that have been targeted at least four times in the Red Zone, Mohamed Sanu is the only player with both a 100% catch rate and a touchdown. Five players on the main slate have three RZ touchdowns so far this year (Nelson Agholor, Amari Cooper, Julio Jones, Cooper Kupp, and Michael Thomas).
  3. Nick Chubb leads the NFL with 86.3% of his team’s total rushing yards (via ESPN’s Al Zeidenfeld). Only Le’Veon Bell has more of his team’s rushes than Chubb’s 83.9% carry share.
  4. Cooper Kupp has led the NFL in targets each of the last two weeks with 17 and 15. Overall, he has seen at least nine targets in every game this year. His 25.6 fantasy points per game trails only Chris Godwin’s 25.8.
  5. The New York Jets and New England Patriots have scored the most defensive touchdowns (3) this year. Overall, the Jets DST is ranked fourth in the NFL averaging 10.8 DKFP. However, at $1,500 they are the cheapest defense since week one of the 2014 season (according to Adam Levitan from Establish the Run). That week, a $1,500 Jaguars DST scored 11 points.
  6. Patrick Mahomes is the only QB that has earned 20+ fantasy points in all five weeks. Matt Ryan, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott have done it four times each. Matt Ryan is the only QB to throw for 300+ yards in all five games.

Top Scoring DFS Players (Week 5)

  • Will Fuller, WR (HOU): 56
  • Aaron Jones, RB (GB): 52.2
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 50.7
  • Deshaun Watson, QB (HOU): 44.7
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 44.2
  • Amari Cooper, WR (DAL): 42.6
  • D.J. Chark, WR (JAC): 39.4
  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): 35.9
  • Philadelphia Eagles DST: 35.0
  • Adam Thielen, WR (MIN): 35.0

Top Scoring DFS Players (Season by Position)

  • Patrick Mahomes, QB (KC): 27.87
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 33.72
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 27.24
  • Austin Ekeler, RB-flex (LAC): 26.26
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 25.82
  • Cooper Kupp, WR (LAR): 25.58
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 24.66
  • Evan Engram, TE (NYG) 17.76
  • New England Patriots DST: 19.40

Highest Owned DFS Players (Week 5 Milly Maker)

  • David Johnson, RB (ARI): 30.58%
  • Auden Tate, WR (CIN): 29.09%
  • Ezekiel Elliott, RB (DAL): 26.69%
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 24.73%
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 23.70%
  • New England Patriots DST: 22.23%
  • Julio Jones, WR (ATL): 20.90%
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR (HOU): 19.91%
  • Will Fuller, WR (HOU): 18.47%
  • Tyler Eifert, TE (CIN): 17.03%

RB Total Touches (Week 5)

  • Marlon Mack (IND): 32
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 29
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 28
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 27
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 27
  • Aaron Jones (GB): 26
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 25
  • Alvin Kamara (NO): 22
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 22
  • Carlos Hyde (HOU): 21
  • Mark Ingram (BAL): 21

RB Total Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 27.2
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 24.5
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 23.0
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 22.6
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 21.8
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 21.8
  • Marlon Mack (IND): 21.6
  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 20.6
  • Alvin Kamara (NO): 20.2
  • Kerryon Johnson (DET): 20.2

Target Leaders (Week 5)

  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 17
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC): 16
  • Will Fuller (HOU): 16
  • Amari Cooper (DAL): 14
  • Michael Gallup (DAL): 14
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 14
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 13
  • Mike Williams (LAC): 13
  • D.J. Chark (JAC): 11
  • Dede Westbrook (JAC): 11
  • Evan Engram (NYG): 11
  • Gerald Everett (LAR): 11

Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 12.6
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 11.0
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 10.8
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 10.4
  • Michael Gallup (DAL): 9.7
  • Evan Engram (NYG): 9.6
  • Robert Woods (LAR): 9.4
  • Christian Kirk (ARI): 9.3
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 9.3
  • Davante Adams (GB): 9.0
  • Zach Ertz (PHI): 9.0
  • Kenny Golladay (DET): 9.0

RedZone Target Leaders (Season Totals)

  • Courtland Sutton (DEN): 8
  • Emmanuel Sanders (DEN): 8
  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 7
  • D.K. Metcalf (SEA): 7
  • Keenan Allen (SEA): 7
  • Larry Fitzgerald (ARI): 7
  • Mike Evans (TB): 7
  • T.Y. Hilton (IND): 7

RedZone Touches (Season Totals)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 20
  • Aaron Jones (GB): 18
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 18
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 17
  • Sony Michel (NE): 17

Week 5 DFS DK Milly Maker Lineup

Week 5 DFS FD Sunday Millions Lineup

Highest Projected Scoring Game

  • Houston @ Kansas City (55.0 o/u)
  • Atlanta @ Arizona (52.0 o/u)
  • San Francisco @ L.A. Rams (50.5 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games

  • Tennessee @ Denver (41.0 o/u)
  • Washington @ Miami (42.0 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Workhorse Running Backs

  • Mark Ingram (BAL): $6,600 vs. CIN (12 points)

Home Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): $6,900 vs. CIN (29.75 points)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): $7,500 vs. HOU (29.5 points)
  • Jared Goff (LAR): $6,100 vs. SF (27.0 points)

Highest Projected DFS Ownership (by position)

  • Deshaun Watson, QB (HOU): $6,700 @ KC (15-17%)
  • Malcolm Brown, RB (LAR): $4,300 vs. SF (42-44%)
  • Ezekiel Elliott, RB (DAL): $8,500 @ NYJ (29-31%)
  • Leonard Fournette, RB-flex (JAC): $6,700 vs. NO (27-29%)
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR (HOU): $7,400 @ KC (24-26%)
  • D.J. Chark, WR (JAC): $5,500 vs. NO (17-19%)
  • Odell Beckham, WR (CLE): $6,800 vs. SEA (16-18%)
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): $5,000 @ ARI (26-29%)
  • Baltimore Ravens DST: $4,100 vs. CIN (15-17%)

Over-Priced DK Plays (price vs. DKFP average)

  • Baker Mayfield, QB (CLE): 17th price ($5,500) vs. 29th scoring (12.5)
  • Ezekiel Elliott, RB (DAL): 2nd price ($8,500) vs. 11th scoring (17.9)
  • David Johnson, RB (ARI): 5th price ($7,600) vs. 9th scoring (18.6)
  • Julio Jones, WR (ATL): 1st price ($8,000) vs. 9th scoring (18.4)
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR (HOU): 4th price ($7,400) vs. 22nd scoring (15.9)
  • Odell Beckham, WR (CLE): 11th price ($6,800) vs. 32nd scoring (13.3)
  • Travis Kelce, TE (KC): 1st price ($7,000) vs. 4th scoring (!3.6)
  • Zach Ertz, TE (PHI): 2nd price ($6,600) vs. 6th scoring (13.6)
  • Dallas Cowboys DST: 1st price ($4,300) vs. 20th scoring (6.2)
  • Ravens DST: 2nd price ($4,100) vs. 22nd scoring (4.2)

Under-Priced DK Plays (price vs. DKFP average)

  • Russell Wilson, QB (SEA): 2nd scoring (26.6) vs. 5th price ($6,600)
  • Gardner Minshew, QB (JAC): 12th scoring (19.5) vs. 25th price ($5,000)
  • Cooper Kupp, WR (LAR): 2nd scoring (25.5) vs. 5th price ($7,100)
  • DJ Chark, WR (JAC): 5th scoring (22.3) vs. 22nd price ($5,500)
  • Michael Gallup, WR (DAL): 7th scoring (21.9) vs.32nd price ($5,600)
  • Courland Sutton, WR (DEN): 13th scoring (17.4) vs. 35th price ($5,000)
  • Jets DST: 3rd scoring (10.7) vs. 26th price ($1,500)

DraftKings Values (vs. FD price)

  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): 7th DK ($6,400) vs. 4th FD ($8,100)
  • Jarvis Landry, WR (CLE): 19th DK ($5,200) vs. 39th FD ($6,700)
  • Robert Woods, WR (LAR): 30th DK ($5,600) vs. 16th FD ($7,100)
  • Mohamed Sanu, WR (ATL): 53rd DK ($4,500) vs. 33rd FD ($6,000)
  • Brandin Cooks, WR (LAR): 35th DK ($5,400) vs. 23rd FD ($6,500)
  • Mecole Hardman, WR (KC): 37th DK ($5,300) vs. 27th FD ($6,400)
  • Gerald Everett, TE (LAR): 16th DK ($3,600) vs. 8th FD ($6,000).
  • Eagles DST: 6th DK ($3,000) vs. 16th FD ($4,500)

FanDuel Values (vs. DK price)

  • David Johnson, RB (ARI): 12th FD ($7,600) vs. 5th DK ($6,900)
  • Larry Fitzgerald, WR (ARI): 41st FD ($5,600) vs. 20th DK ($6,100)
  • Tyler Lockett, WR (SEA): 29th FD ($6,300) vs. 15th DK ($6,400)
  • Tyler Boyd, WR (CIN): 25th FD ($6,400) vs. 16th DK ($6,300)
  • Stefon Diggs, WR (MIN): 39th FD ($5,800) vs. 25th DK ($5,900)
  • Calvin Ridley, WR (ATL): 46th FD ($5,500) vs. 28th DK ($5,700)
  • Delanie Walker, TE (TEN): 52nd FD ($4,000) vs. 15th DK ($3,700)
  • Panthers DST: 15th FD ($3,700) vs. 5th DK ($3,500)

Notable DK Salary Increases

  • Will Fuller, WR (HOU): $6,000 @ KC (+1,500)
  • Cowboys DST: $4,300 @ NYJ (+1,500)
  • Michael Gallup, WR (DAL): $6,500 @ NYJ (+1,500)
  • Redskins DST: $3,200 @ MIA (+1,400)
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): $7,800 @ JAC (+1,200)
  • Demarcus Robinson, WR (KC): $5,900 vs. HOU (+1,100)
  • Mecole Hardman, WR (KC): $5,300 vs. HOU (+1,100)
  • Willie Snead, WR (BAL): $5,500 vs. CIN (+1,000)
  • Auden Tate, WR (CIN): $4,500 @ BAL (+1,000)
  • Amari Cooper, WR (DAL): $7,700 @ NYJ (+900)
  • Terry McLaurin, WR (WAS):  $6,000 @ MIA (+900)
  • Chase Edmonds, RB (ARI): $4,600 vs. ATL (+900)
  • Nick Chubb, RB (CLE): $7,300 vs. SEA (+800)
  • Calvin Ridley, WR (ATL): $5,700 @ ARI (+800)
  • Dak Prescott, QB (DAL): $6,700 @ NYJ (+700)
  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): $6,400 @ ARI (+500)

Notable DK Salary Decreases

  • Cardinals DST: $1,900 vs. ATL (-1,000)
  • Jaguars DST: $2,200 vs. NO (-800)
  • NY Jets DST: $1,500 vs. DAL (-800)
  • Zach Ertz, TE (PHI): $5,400 @ MIN (-600)
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR (HOU): $7,400 @ KC (-400)
  • Gardner Minshew, QB (JAC): $5,500 vs. NO (-300)
  • Andy Dalton, QB (CIN): $5,400 @ BAL (-300)
  • Stefon Diggs, WR (MIN): $5,900 vs. PHI (-300)

Favorite DFS Plays 4.5K and Under

  • Byron Pringle, WR (KC): $3,500 vs. HOU
  • Gerald Everett, TE (LAR): $3,600 vs. SF
  • Kenyan Drake, RB (MIA): $4,000 vs. WAS
  • Jamison Crowder, WR (NYJ): $4,000 vs. DAL
  • Preston Williams, WR (MIA): $4,100 vs. WAS
  • Mohamed Sanu, WR (ATL): $4,500 @ ARI
  • Malcolm Brown, RB (LAR): $4,500 vs. SF

Princess Leia DFS Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life.

On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games (which I won at a 60% clip last year and at an 75% clip so far this year after four weeks, btw, #humblebrag).  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

  • QB – Deshaun Watson ($6,700)
  • RB – Leonard Fournette ($6,700)
  • RB – Chris Carson ($6,000)
  • WR – Cooper Kupp ($7,100)
  • WR – Adam Thielen ($6,700)
  • WR – Byron Pringle ($3,500)
  • TE – Austin Hooper ($5,000)
  • FLEX – Le’Veon Bell ($6,400)
  • DST – NY Jets ($1,500)

Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

For more Fantasy Football content visit CouchPotatoGM.com

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@WinningDFS101

Author: @WinningDFS101