DFS Week 9: By the Numbers

DFS Week 9: By the Numbers

By: Jamy Bechler @WinningDFS101

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the NFL DFS main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite DFS Stud

Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): $10,000 vs. TEN – I am going to pay up for the “guaranteed” floor and the massive upside. I think there is enough value on this slate to do that. He had 30.5 DKFP last week in a “tough” matchup. If Dalvin Cook was only $9,000, I might put him here as a price play, but I will find the extra $500 to play CMC. In fact, I am going to try to jam both of them in because I feel that both of them are great and in great situations.

The last time that the Titans faced a top-tier receiving RB, they gave up a 7-118-1 stat line to Austin Ekeler in week seven. I will be rolling with McCaffrey until he lets me down multiple times in a row. One time will be a fluke in my book, just like week two, which is his only game of less than 20 DKFP all season. He is averaging 31.5 on the season.

Favorite DFS Core Play

Jaylen Samuels, RB (PIT): $4,000 vs. IND – More than likely, James Conner will join Benny Snell as being out for this game. Samuels becomes a lock play for me if this is the case. In week four against Cincinnati, Samuels earned 23.5 DKFP. He is not a great play from a pure rushing standpoint, but he is a great receiving back and he should get a lot of opportunity. At this price, it is hard to pass him up.

Favorite DFS Value

Keenan Allen, WR (LAC): $6,400 vs. GB – He was supposedly limited by a hamstring injury, which only allowed him to run 25 routes, but he was targeted on 10 of them. He appears to be healthy now. This is a great price for a guy that has seen double-digit targets in six games this season, including the last two. He hasn’t been producing but the volume is there. He scored 29.3 DKFP in week one and 46.6 DKFP in week three so he has shown he has huge upside.

The Packers have been a decent defense this year against WRs, but they have given up some big games. Overall, Allen is the 12th most-expensive WR on the slate and is ninth in fantasy scoring. He is not a lock and load, but his floor should be solid with his targets and we know he can break a slate in the right situation. Only Mike Evans and Julio Jones have seen more air yards this season.  

Favorite DFS Punt Play

Allen Lazard, WR (GB): $3,900 @ LAC – The perception is that Geronimo Allison and MVS are ahead of Lazard, but I am not sure that is the case. Even if Davante Adams returns, I still think there is a chance that Lazard is the number two wide receiver for the Packers. Lazard has led Green Bay in both snaps played and targets the last two games. If you like Aaron Rodgers and you are looking for a cheap, low-owned play, then Lazard is certainly the epitome of a punt play.

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. The Broncos 2019 first-round draft pick, Noah Fant set season-high marks in snap rate (82%), slot snaps (14), targets (team-high 8), and catches (5) according to EstablishTheRun’s Adam Levitan. This was his first game playing without Emmanuel Sanders and he is only $3,000 this week.
  2. None of the five highest-paid running backs are in the top five for fantasy scoring average this season. Ezekiel Elliott is sixth (21.3), Todd Gurley is 19th (14.2), Le’Veon Bell is 20th (14.1), David Johnson is 11th (17.4), and Devonta Freeman is 21st (13.9).
  3. Chris Godwin is the second-best fantasy WR this year and Mike Evans is fourth but their QB (Jameis Winston) is only the QB9 on DraftKings for fantasy points per game.
  4. With Joe Flacco going to the IR, the Broncos are the only NFL team without an experienced QB. Literally! Brandon Allen, Drew Lock, and Brett Rypien have never taken an NFL snap. To make matters worse, Denver has allowed sacks on 9% of their plays while the Browns are fifth in the NFL with sacks on 8.91% of their defensive possessions. Browns DST anyone?
  5. In the last three weeks, the Bears have allowed seven touchdowns from running backs. They’ve also given up 100+ rushing yards to Josh Jacobs and Latavius Murray. This week they go against Jordan Howard, who is coming off a game where he played the most snaps of any Eagles RB since 2016. #NarrativeStreet
  6. If you are a believer in the squeaky wheel narrative, then you have to believe in Le’Veon Bell this week. Supposedly, he and coach Adam Gase had a sit down this week, and they have come to some kind of understanding. Maybe Gase will give him even more opportunity against the Dolphins, who are giving up the most rushing yards and are third in RB fantasy points (32.0 DKFP allowed per game).

Top Scoring DFS Players (Week 8)

  • Mike Evans, WR (TB): 45.8
  • Aaron Jones, RB (GB): 44.6
  • Tevin Coleman, RB (SF): 40.8
  • Latavius Murray, RB (NO): 39.7
  • Cooper Kupp, WR (LAR): 38.0
  • Kenny Golladay, WR (DET): 32.3
  • Daniel Jones, QB (NYG): 32.1
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 30.5
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 30.3
  • Aaron Rodgers, QB (GB): 30.1

Top Scoring DFS Players (Season by Position)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 27.5
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 31.5
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 26.1
  • Aaron Jones, RB-flex (GB): 23.8
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 24.4
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 23.9
  • Cooper Kupp, WR (LAR): 22.8
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): 18.6
  • New England Patriots DST: 21.6

Highest Owned DFS Players (Week 8 Milly Maker)

  • Latavius Murray, RB (NO): 34.79%
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR (HOU): 29.22%
  • Kenny Stills, WR (HOU): 27.68%
  • Kenny Golladay, WR (DET): 24.25%
  • Deshaun Watson, QB (HOU): 22.66%
  • Chris Carson, RB (SEA): 21.80%
  • Saquon Barkley, RB (NYG): 21.48%
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 20.75%
  • Hunter Henry, TE (LAC): 18.69%
  • Leonard Fournette, RB (JAC): 18.20%

RB Touches (Week 8)

  • David Montgomery (CHI): 31
  • Latavius Murray (NO): 30
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 28
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG): 27
  • James Conner (PIT): 26
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 26
  • Jordan Howard (PHI): 24
  • Devonta Freeman (ATL): 21
  • Joe Mixon (CIN): 21
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 21
  • Sony Michel (NE): 21

RB Total Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 25.7
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 24.8
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 23.1
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 22.7
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 22.6
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 22.1
  • Marlon Mack (IND): 21.3
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 20.0
  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 19.9
  • Alvin Kamara (NO): 19.8

Target Leaders (Week 8)

  • Auden Tate (CIN): 13
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): 13
  • D.J. Chark (JAC): 12
  • Julio Jones (ATL): 12
  • Latavius Murray (NO): 12
  • Mike Evans (TB): 12
  • Christian Kirk (ARI): 11
  • Curtis Samuel (CAR): 11
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 11
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 11

Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Michael Thomas (NO): 11.1
  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 10.9
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 10.2
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): 10.1
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 10.0
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 9.9
  • Mike Evans (TB): 9.6
  • Allen Robinson (CHI): 9.4
  • Christian Kirk (ARI): 9.4
  • Julio Jones (ATL): 9.2
  • Davante Adams (GB): 9.0
  • Golden Tate (NYG): 9.0

Red Zone Target Leaders (Season Totals)

  • Mike Evans (TB): 14
  • Auden Tate (CIN): 13
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 13
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 13
  • James White (NE): 13
  • D.K. Metcalf (SEA): 11
  • Travis Kelce (KC): 11
  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 10
  • Courtland Sutton (DEN): 10
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 10
  • Marvin Jones (DET): 10
  • Mike Williams (LAC): 10
  • Tyler Lockett (SEA): 10
  • Jimmy Graham (GB): 10

Red Zone Touches (Season Totals)

  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 38
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 38
  • Sony Michel (NE): 30
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 28
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 27
  • Todd Gurley (LAR): 27
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 26
  • Aaron Jones (GB): 25
  • Josh Jacobs (OAK): 23
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 22

Week 8 DFS DK Milly Maker Lineup

Week 8 DFS FD Sunday Millions Lineup

Highest Projected Scoring Game (50+ o/u)

  • Tampa Bay Bucs @ Seattle Seahawks (52.5 o/u)
  • Oakland Raiders @ Detroit Lions (50.5 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games (43 – o/u)

  • Washington Redskins @ Buffalo Bills (37.0 o/u)
  • Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (39.0 o/u)
  • Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles (42.0 o/u)
  • Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers (42.0 o/u)
  • Miami Dolphins @ NY Jets (42.5 o/u)
  • Tennessee Titans @ Carolina Panthers (42.5 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Running Backs

  • Chris Carson (SEA): $7,200 vs. TB
  • Jordan Howard (PHI): $5,100 vs. CHI
  • Devin Singletary (BUF): $4,700 vs. WAS
  • Frank Gore (BUF): $4,300 vs. WAS

Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Russell Wilson (SEA): $7,100 vs. TB (28.75 points)
  • Derek Carr (OAK): $5,500 vs. DET (26.5 points)

Highest Projected Ownership (by position)

  • Russell Wilson, QB (SEA): $7,100 vs. TB (14-17%)
  • Jaylen Samuels, RB (PIT): $4,000 vs. IND (42-45%)
  • Dalvin Cook RB (MIN): $9,500 @ KC (22-24%)
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): $7,300 @ SEA (21-23%)
  • Courtland Sutton, WR (DEN): $5,800 vs. CLE (16-18%)
  • Curtis Samuel, WR (CAR): $4,300 vs. TEN (15-17%)
  • Darren Waller, TE (OAK): $6,300 vs. DET (19-21%)
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB-FLEX (CAR): $10,000 vs. TEN (20-23%)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers DST: $2,400 vs. IND (15-17%)

DraftKings DFS Values (vs. FD price)

  • Jarvis Landry, WR (CLE): 30th DK ($4,500) vs. 19th FD ($6,200)
  • Alshon Jeffery, WR (PHI): 24th DK ($5,000) vs. 15th FD ($6,600)
  • Cole Beasley, WR (BUF): 38th DK ($4,100) vs. 30th FD ($5,600)
  • Adrian Peterson, RB (WAS): 30th DK ($4,200) vs. 21st FD ($5,700)
  • Davante Adams, WR (GB): 8th DK ($7,100) vs. 3rd FD ($8,000)
  • Frank Gore, RB (BUF): 29th DK ($4,300) vs. 15th FD ($6,200)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB (MIA): 21st DK ($4,800) vs. 16th FD ($7,000)
  • Indianapolis Colts DST:  10th DK ($2,800) vs. 3rd FD ($4,800)
  • Tennessee Titans DST:  14th DK ($2,600) vs. 8th FD ($4,400)
  • Minnesota Vikings DST: 12th DK ($2,700) vs. 6th FD ($4,500)

FanDuel DFS Values (vs. DK price)

  • Kyle Allen, QB (CAR):  18th FD ($6,800) vs. 14th DK ($5,200)
  • Demaryius Thomas, WR (NYJ):  57th FD ($4,800) vs. 41st DK ($4,000)
  • Diontae Johnson, WR (PIT):  50th FD ($5,000) vs. 31st DK ($4,500)
  • Jamaal Williams, RB (GB):  27th FD ($5,400) vs. 11th DK ($5,900)
  • Terry McLaurin, WR (WAS):  29th FD ($5,700) vs. 14th DK DK ($6,200)
  • Marvin Jones, WR (DET):  27th FD ($5,700) vs. 16th DK ($6,000)
  • D.J. Moore, WR (SEA): 37th FD ($5,400) vs. 26th DK ($4,800)
  • Green Bay Packers DST:  12th FD ($4,200) vs. 4th DK ($3,400)

Notable DFS DK Salary Increases

  • Kenny Golladay, WR (DET): $7,700 @ OAK (+1,300)
  • Hunter Henry, TE (LAC): $6,000 vs. GB (+1,100)
  • Jamaal Willliams, RB (GB): $5,900 @ LAC (+1,000)
  • Jonnu Smith, TE (TEN): $3,800 @ CAR (+1,000)
  • Mark Walton, RB (MIA): $4,500 vs. NYJ (+1,000)
  • Le’Veon Bell, RB (NYJ): $7,700 @ MIA (+800)
  • Allen Robinson, WR (CHI): $6,800 @ PHI (+800)
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): $9,500 @ KC (+800)
  • Christian McCarffrey, RB (CAR): $10,000 vs. TEN (+800)
  • David Montgomery, RB (CHI): $5,200 @ PHI (+800)
  • Matthew Stafford, QB (DET): $6,800 @ OAK (+700)
  • Sam Darnold, QB (NYJ): $5,900 @ MIA (+400)

Notable DFS DK Salary Decreases

  • Royce Freeman, RB (DEN): $4,900) vs. CLE (-600)
  • Kyle Rudolph, TE (MIN): $3,300 @ KC (-500)
  • Adam Thielen, WR (MIN): $7,800 @ KC (-500)
  • Tarik Cohen, RB (CHI): $4,200 @ PHI (-500)
  • Mason Rudolph, QB (PIT): $5,000 vs. IND (-300)

Favorite DFS Plays 4.5K and Under

  • Jarvis Landry, WR (CLE): $4,500 @ DEN
  • Diontae Johnson, WR (PIT): $4,500 vs. IND
  • Mark Walton, RB (MIA): $4,500 vs. NYJ
  • Curtis Samuel, WR (CAR): $4,300 vs. TEN
  • Preston Williams, WR (MIA): $4,200 vs. NYJ
  • Cole Beasley, WR (BUF): $4,100 vs. WAS
  • Jaylen Samuels, RB (PIT): $4,000 vs. IND
  • Allen Lazard, WR (GB): $3,900 @ LAC
  • Jonnu Smith, TE (TEN): $3,800 @ CAR

Princess Leia Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life. On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. I like volume, opportunity, and salary value. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games (which I won at a 60% clip last year and at an 73% clip so far this year after four weeks, btw, #humblebrag).  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

  • Derek Carr, QB (OAK): $5,500 vs. DET
  • Jordan Howard, RB (PHI): $5,100 vs. CHI
  • Aaron Jones, RB (GB): $7,000 @ LAC
  • John Brown, WR (BUF): $6,100 vs. WAS
  • Allen Robinson, WR (CHI): $6,800 @ PHI
  • Courtland Sutton, WR (DEN): $5,800 vs. CLE
  • Jonnu Smith, TE (TEN): $3,800 @ CAR
  • Nick Chubb, RB (CLE): $7,300 @ DEN
  • Pittsburgh Steelers DST: $2,400 vs. IND

Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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