By: Randall Blakeslee @_fantasykings
DFS Week 9: By the Numbers
Greetings. Once again, we did very well last week. I hope you incorporated a few of last week’s steal and/or stacks to your final rosters and were able to fill the rest in with the fantasy studs like Gurley, Mahomes, and Thielen. Let’s get to our HITS and MISSES:
Phillip Lindsay (20.2 pts): My “Steal of the Week” delivered in grand fashion with 95 rushing yards and 1 TD, adding 17 yards through the air. He took full advantage of the absense of Royce Freeman and averaged a legit 5.3 YPC. By legit, I mean his 5.3 YPC wasn’t because of a long run averaged in with a bunch of small gains. Lindsay’s longest gain was only 14 yards. He simply produced at an elite level.
Patriots DST (20.0 pts): They played against Derek Anderson and the Bills. It’s criminal if you didn’t put them in your line up.
Jared Cook (17.4 pts): The TE position is just so volatile outside of anyone not named Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, or George Kittle. Cook is a fantasy roller coaster. However, in week 8, he secured 4 receptions for 74 yards and a score. Score.
STACK / Kirk Cousins (24.7 pts) + Adam Thielen (26.8 pts): How much credit can I really take for calling out this stack? Let’s be real, if Thielen is on your roster, you’re in great shape at the position since he was probably the 2nd or 3rd WR you drafted (league size dependent). Feel free to roll this stack again since Diggs is more than likely going to be extremely limited, if he suits up at all.
STACK / Andy Dalton (26.2 pts) + A.J. Green (18.6 pts): The “Red Rifle” and his top target delivered once again. Granted, they were competing against the Bucs’ bottom-of-the-barrel passing defense. Can anyone remember the last time the Bucs had a good defense? Seriously, I can’t and I grew up in Tampa.
STACK / Andrew Luck (29.3 pts) + T.Y. Hilton (4.4 pts): Luck remains an elite QB on a weekly basis, however Hilton was held to 1 reception and took very little part in Luck’s 239 passing yards and 3 TDs. The match ups don’t get much better coming out of the bye, either. We may not come back to this stack for the remainder of the year, unless T.Y. gets hot.
Taylor Gabriel (9.2 pts): Now, I’m ready to fade Gabriel. I wasn’t last week, but it’s time. He was fantasy relevant for 2 weeks and just fell off. Even with the absence of Allen Robinson, Gabriel is back to not being worth the gamble in DFS.
STEAL OF THE WEEK
Marvin Jones, Jr, WR (DET) $5,300: Jones, Jr. is currently averaging 14.0 FPPG and came back to life last week with 117 receiving yards and 2 scores. Statistically, he fares better at home than away, but with Golden Tate off to Philly, he and Kenny Golladay should eat. After all, the absence of Tate leaves a game average of 10 targets that need to go to other Stafford-trusted WRs. At $5,300, I truly believe he’ll out perform his salary and this week will be his last week under $6k.
Courtland, Sutton, WR (DEN) $3,900: Last week’s top waiver wire target, the emergence of Sutton was merely a matter of time, as in trade deadline time. With Demaryius Thomas off to the Texans, Sutton moves up as Denver’s WR2. Mark it: this will be the last week his salary falls below $4k. Both he and Sanders should be busy since the Texans’ rush defense ranks 7th, allowing less than 96 rushing YPG. The last time Lindsay went up against a top-ranked rush defense (week 2, MIN) he scored 2.0 fantasy points.
Latavius Murray, RB (MIN) $5,100: Murray has taken off over the last 3 games. I regret dropping him week 5 in my redraft leagues, but such is fantasy. At a glance, he averages 14.7 FPPG at home compared to 9.4 FPPG away. The Vikings play the Lions at home and Dalvin Cook, should he play, will be very limited. Murray is worth the $5,100.
Sammy Watkins, WR (KC) $4,100: This goes against my gut and I’ll tell you why. Even though he’s been on a roll, Watkins only averages 7.7 FPPG away from Kansas City compared to 19.4 FPPG when at home. When they play against the battered Browns on Sunday, he’ll boom or bust. However, at $4,100 (for the 3 games lineup, $4,900 for 12) he’s worth it.
Jordan Thomas, TE (HOU) $2,900: Thomas was week 8’s “who that?” He was Watson’s clear choice target in the red-zone as he hauled in all 4 targets for 29 yards and 2 TDs. In the 7 game lineups, he’s the guy that helps up all kinds of salary woes.
In a previous article I discussed the benefits of stacking a QB and a WR/TE, a popular gaming method in DFS that pays dividends. Here are this week’s recommended stacks:
- Patrick Mahomes ($7,100) and Travis Kelce ($6,600)
- Cam Newton ($6,600) and D.J. Moore ($4,300)
- Kirk Cousins ($6,200) and Adam Thielen ($8,900)
RECOMMENDED DFS ROSTERS
The salaries and PPG are taken from DraftKings. Entering 50/50 contests is the absolute best way to win and double your money. If you decide to go all in and chase the big money, just be sure to enter a few 50/50 DFS contests to ensure you win your money back. Let’s get ready for another exciting week and good luck to you and your lineups.