Dynasty Stock Market Update
Can Josh Reynolds hold off Van Jefferson and reward the Reynolds’ Dynasty Stock Bag-holders?
He will! Reynolds has filled in admirably for stretches over portions of the past two seasons due to injuries at the wide receiver position. Teammate Cooper Kupp had his 2018 campaign halved due to injury; and 2019 marked former teammate Brandin Cooks’ lowest snap total (701) since his rookie season. Reynolds’ 53/29/402/5 in 8 starts (611 snaps total in 16 games) in 2018, served as a glimpse of what he is capable of given opportunity.
In 2019, the Rams’ offense sputtered overall. Up and down quarterback play from Jared Goff. A porous offensive line. Even struggles from wunderkind playcaller Sean McVay. Furthermore, increased “12” personnel groupings to mitigate the struggles of the offensive line led to fewer snaps in 2019 (480/2 starts/16 total games). None of which was conducive to Reynolds building on his 2018 mini-breakout even with the lasting effect of Brandin Cooks’ concussion(s). Still, in limited action Reynolds salvaged a 43/21/326/1 line despite the aforementioned.
Looking ahead, Reynolds is in position to truly breakout in 2020. The Rams were able to move the albatross contract of Brandin Cooks opening a would be starting position in Los Angeles’ famed 3-receiver sets; or 11-personnel. Cooks averaged just over five targets a game as the Rams’ primary deep threat. However, there’s a chance Reynolds could garner a couple more looks weekly if deployed in a more interchangeable fashion with incumbents Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.
The Rams front office did make it a point to add rookie WR depth due to the injuries the position group has suffered in recent years. Still, the 2020 offseason has been anything but normal for obvious reasons. No rookie mini-camps, OTAs, and various limitations has made it virtually untenable for an incoming rookie to supplant a veteran heading into the regular season. As such, Reynolds is ahead of the curve and will be motivated to prove his worth as he enters the final year of his rookie deal.
Most importantly, there is a general lack of appreciation for Josh Reynolds’ skill. Many fail to realize, the former 4th round pick caught 30 TDs in three years in a Power 5 Conference. Even fewer know that Reynolds led all players in receiveing at the 2017 Senior Bowl (6/96/1) including Cooper Kupp (2/14). The upcoming 2020 season appears to be the point in which talent finally meets opportunity and Josh Reynolds’ Dynasty Stock soars.
We wouldn’t go as far as to say that Josh Reynolds will force the Rams’ hand and garner an extension. Cooper Kupp is also entering the final year of his deal and in all likelihood will re-sign in L.A. But it should come as no surprise when Reynolds parlays a Top 36 Fantasy WR finish in 2020, into a multi-year deal and starting opportunity elsewhere as he enters his prime.
He won’t… Josh Reynolds’ Dynasty Stock plummeted when the Rams selected Van Jefferson in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Reynolds’ dynasty stock might have a pulse considering that Jefferson is an incoming rookie; juxtaposed against the state of the free-world. But Reynolds’ hold on the third wideout position is tenuous at best; considering the draft capital invested in Van Jefferson, whose skill-set more closely resemebles Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.
It’s bad folks. Almost as bad as Reynolds was in 2019 from a fantasy football perspective. His catch rate was below 50% and he managed just one touchdown grab. Reynolds’ skill-set, as a long-striding , above the rim, vertical threat doesn’t exactly mesh with Sean McVay’s offense. He doesn’t play with enough physicality nor suddeness and he isn’t an advanced route-runner to take advantage of timing patterns and levels concepts. Still, Reyonlds got a vote of confidence early during the offseason. However, the Rams proceeded to select Van Jefferson early on Day 2 of the draft; despite having a number of more pressing needs. The odds are stacked against Reynolds whose yet to truly take advantage of his opportunities. Time to cut your losses.
Couch Potato General Manager Recommendation
If you have shares of Josh Reynolds it’s unlikely you’ll get a decent return if you try to move him ahead of the season. As the “Bulls” suggest he has the inside track to the WR3 position and has a decent chance to breakout over a full season worth of starts given this non-traditional offseason. This would not only stabilize Reynolds’ dynasty stock; but he could take off as perhaps a second or third option in another team’s passing attack beyond 2020.
However, the most prudent approach is to sell high if Reynolds can string some good performances together early or during the playoff push given his uncertain future in L.A. If you’re in desperate need of wide receiver depth, Reynolds offers solid, short-term upside for a nominal cost. But anything beyond parting with a future 4th rounder right now isn’t worth it at this point.
Dynasty Stock Market Update
3-Star BUY Alert
Tailor made skill-set for the slot; position becoming more desirable for consistent fantasy football production. Advanced route-running and redzone prowess (33 TDs in college — 1 TD grab per 6.4 receptions). Routinely finds voids in the zone and makes plays after the catch (3.3 yards per route ran). Highest ranked WR in all of CFB in 2019 (92.2 grade). Flanked by Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, will face lesser defenders in man-to-man coverage. Head coach Bruce Arians LOVES him… https://www.buccaneers.com/news/receiver-depth-helped-bucs-draft-minnesota-tyler-johnson
Johnson currently has an early-to-mid third round ADP according to Fantasy Football Calculator. CPGM recommends targeting Johnson as early as 2.10 in rookie drafts and represents GREAT value anywhere in the third round.
Do not hestitate to part with a 2021 3rd AND 4th round pick.
What does a 3-Star Buy ALERT mean?
- 1-Star = Secondary Waiver Claim (10% FAAB Budget)
- 2-Star = Secondary or “throw in” trade target (25% FAAB Budget)
- 3-Star = Primary Waiver Claim/Secondary trade target (50% FAAB Budget)
- 4-Star = Primary Trade Target (75% FAAB Budget)
- 5-Star = “League Winning” Waiver Claim/Trade Target (100% FAAB Budget)
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