DFS Week 7: By the Numbers

DFS

Each week I will bring you information, statistics, and facts that I find helpful in picking the players that I will be targeting on the NFL main slate (Sunday afternoon games). Unless otherwise noted, the points, salaries, and advice are primarily focused on DraftKings. Remember that there is a lot of variance in the NFL from week to week so have a solid process, stay within your bankroll, and have fun.

Favorite Stud

Leonard Fournette, RB (JAC): $7,000 @ CIN – This was going to be where I wrote up Julio Jones and how this might be the week for a Mount Saint Julio eruption spot. Then the Rams traded for Jalen Ramsey and so I will temper my expectations. I will still have a fair share of Julio but will not go crazy. Instead of one of my absolute favorite players, I am going to tout one of my least favorite players. Though I do not like Fournette, it is tough to argue with his workload, the matchup, and the price this week. When it comes to the Jaguars backfield, Fournette is the only show in town. He has played 91% of the snaps and gotten 91% of the carries. He has seen at least six targets in five of the Jaguars’ six games this year. He is a three down back with goal line duties. Only Christian McCaffrey averages more touches per game and only McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott have more total Red Zone touches than he has this year. He has averaged 24.6 DKFP the last three games, during which time he has not seen less than 26 touches. He gets to play the Bengals this week, who are giving up the most total yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points to RBs. He is the sixth-most expensive RB on the slate with a price tag that still seems too cheap.

Favorite Core Play

T.Y. Hilton, WR (IND): $5,900 vs. HOU – He is significantly under-priced this week. He had 25 targets in his first three games before his injury. He averaged 21.1 DKFP in those games. He seems to be healthy now. The matchup is great as the Texans rank near the bottom this year in every major category WR category. It’s even better when you consider that he has gone for 100+ yards in four of his last five games against the Texans. This is the cheapest he has been in years.

Favorite Value

Hunter Henry, TE (LAC): $4,000 @ TEN –   Mark Andrews would be a close second to Henry this week, but I will go with the $900 savings since they are 1A and 1B for me. Henry seemingly pulled an Adrian Peterson and Cooper Kupp by coming back from an injury just as good (or better) in a shorter amount of time than expected. Most people didn’t expect to see him back yet. Not only was he back but HE WAS BACK! He caught eight of his nine targets for 100 yards and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh. Now, he gets the Titans. Only the Cardinals have given up more touchdowns this year to the TE position than has Tennessee.

Favorite Punt Play

Darrell Henderson, RB (LAR): $3,500 @ ATL – There is no professional stats for the rookie that makes him a good or safe play. This is the true definition of a punt play, where you are essentially giving up and just hoping. Many people have been clamoring for him and he was a hot prospect in season-long fantasy drafts. He hasn’t gotten the opportunity so far this year. However, Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown are both questionable for Sunday, which could open up the door for Henderson. When he has been used, the electrifying athlete has mainly seen passing down work. That bodes well this week against a Falcons defense that has given up the most RB receptions the last four years. I don’t like wasting a RB spot on a high-risk play but if you want to gamble in your tournament lineups, you could roll him out at the near minimum price tag.  

Six-Pack of Interesting Facts

  1. Josh Allen has scored at least 18 DKFP in 10 of his last 12 games. This week he gets the Dolphins, who are really bad. By the way, he had five touchdowns against them in week 17 of last year. Per PFF’s Scott Barrett, Allen scores 29.2 FP/game against bottom-10 defenses and 16.5 FP/game against everyone else.
  2. This is your weekly reminder that no matter what you think of him as a real-life QB, Matt Ryan is great at fantasy. He is the only QB with six straight 300+ games and his 27.2 DKFP average trails only Lamar Jackson’s 27.4 yet he is still only the seventh most-expensive QB on the slate.
  3. Terry McLaurin is having quite the rookie year as he is currently fifth among all WRs with a 20.0 DKFP average. However, Sunday might be a tough one for him. Per ESPN’s Field Yates, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Odell Beckham, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Brandin Cooks have combined for a 14-143-1 stat line against the 49ers.
  4. Allen Robinson is coming off a 7-97-2 (28.7 DKFP) week but might face a more difficult challenge this week. According to PFF’s Jeff Ratcliffe, Marshon Lattimore shadowed DJ Chark on 82% of his routes last week and limited him to only two catches for 21 yards.
  5. According to 4for4’s John Paulsen, the top three players on the main slate that are seeing the biggest difference between air yards and receiving yards are Darius Slayton (124), Mike Williams (120), and Will Fuller (114).
  6. Keenan Allen saw 42 targets in his first three games and only 17 in the last three games. In the last three games, he has averaged 6.9 DKFP as opposed to his 31.2 DKFP in the first three games.  

Top Scoring Players (Week 6)

  • Stefon Diggs, WR (MIN): 46.5
  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): 33.9
  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 33.6
  • Hunter Henry, TE (LAC): 33.0
  • Nick Chubb, RB (CLE): 32.9
  • Kyler Murray, QB (ARI): 31.8
  • Deshaun Watson, QB (HOU): 31.4
  • Kirk Cousins, QB (MIN): 31.3
  • James Conner, RB (PIT): 30.9
  • Ezekiel Elliott, RB (DAL): 29.3

Top Scoring Players (Season by Position)

  • Lamar Jackson, QB (BAL): 27.7
  • Christian McCaffrey, RB (CAR): 31.7
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 24.9
  • Austin Ekeler, RB-flex (LAC): 22.8
  • Chris Godwin, WR (TB): 26.2
  • Michael Thomas, WR (NO): 23.3
  • Cooper Kupp, WR (LAR): 22.2
  • Hunter Henry, TE (LAC): 21.5 (only played 2 games)
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): 19.3
  • New England Patriots DST: 21.2

Highest Owned Players (Week 6 Milly Maker)

  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): 37.3%
  • Mark Ingram, RB (BAL): 30.5%
  • Le’Veon Bell, RB (NYJ): 29.0%
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR (HOU): 27.9%
  • Chris Carson, RB (SEA): 25.6%
  • DJ Chark, WR (JAC): 20.6%
  • Malcolm Brown, RB (LAR): 20.3%
  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): 19.2%
  • NY Jets DST: 18.3%
  • Larry Fitzgerald, WR (ARI): 18.0%

RB Total Touches (Week 6)

  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 33
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 28
  • Carlos Hyde (HOU): 27
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 26
  • Adrian Peterson (WAS): 25
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 25
  • Sony Michel (NE): 24
  • James Conner (PIT): 23
  • Devonta Freeman (ATL): 22
  • Tevin Coleman (SF): 20

RB Total Touches (Season Avg.)

  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 27.0
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 23.5
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 22.8
  • Le’Veon Bell (NYJ): 22.6
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 22.3
  • Dalvin Cook (MIN): 21.8
  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 21.8
  • Marlon Mack (IND): 21.6
  • Alvin Kamara (NO): 19.8
  • Derrick Henry (TEN): 19.8

Target Leaders (Week 6)

  • Mike Evans (TB): 17
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 15
  • Alshon Jeffery (PHI): 12
  • Chris Godwin (TB): 12
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): 12
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 12
  • Stefon Diggs (MIN): 11
  • Odell Beckham (CLE): 11
  • Auden Tate (CLE): 11
  • Tyreek Hill (KC): 10
  • D.J. Moore (CAR): 10
  • Mike Williams (LAC): 10

Target Leaders (Season Avg.)

  • Cooper Kupp (LAR): 11.5
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 11.2
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 10.0
  • Tyler Boyd (CIN): 9.8
  • Evan Engram (NYG): 9.6
  • Christian Kirk (ARI): 9.3
  • Julian Edelman (NE): 9.3
  • DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): 9.3
  • Mike Evans (TB): 9.2
  • Davante Adams (GB): 9.0
  • Zach Ertz (PHI): 9.0
  • Odell Beckham (CLE): 9.0
  • Kenny Golladay (DET): 9.0
  • Michael Gallup (DAL): 9.0
  • Chris Godwin (TB): 9.0

RedZone Target Leaders (Season Totals)

  • Mike Evans (TB): 11
  • James White (NE): 9
  • Courtland Sutton (DEN): 9
  • Emmanuel Sanders (DEN): 9
  • Michael Thomas (NO): 9
  • Auden Tate (CIN): 8
  • Keenan Allen (LAC): 8
  • Kenny Golladay (DET): 8
  • Travis Kelce (KC): 8
  • Evan Engram (NYG): 8
  • Jimmy Graham (GB): 8

RedZone Touches (Season Totals)

  • Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): 29
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR): 26
  • Leonard Fournette (JAC): 23
  • Chris Carson (SEA): 22
  • Aaron Jones (GB): 20
  • Nick Chubb (CLE): 20

Highest Projected Scoring Game

  • LA Rams @ Atlanta (54.5 o/u)
  • Arizona @ NY Giants (50.5 o/u)
  • Baltimore @ Seattle (49.5 o/u)

Lowest Projected Scoring Games

  • New Orleans @ Chicago (38.5 o/u)
  • Miami @ Buffalo (40.5 o/u)
  • San Francisco @ Washington (41.0 o/u)

Home Favorite (4 points or more) Workhorse Running Backs

  • Frank Gore (BUF): $5,200 vs. MIA (16.5 points)
  • Aaron Jones (GB): $7,100 vs. OAK (5.5 points)

Quarterbacks w/Implied Team Totals of 26+

  • Jared Goff (LAR): $6,200 @ ATL (28.75 points)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): $6,500 vs. MIA (28.5 points)
  • Daniel Jones (NYG): $ 6,100 vs. ARI (26.75 points)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): $6,400 vs. OAK (26.0 points)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): $ 6,600 vs. BAL (26.0 points)

Highest Projected Ownership (by position)

  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): $6,300 vs. LAR (15-17%)
  • Chris Carson, RB (SEA): $6,500 vs. BAL (26-29%)
  • Leonard Fournette, RB (JAC): $7,000 @ CIN (24-27%)
  • T.Y. Hilton, WR (IND): $5,900 vs. HOU (20-23%)
  • Julio Jones, WR (ATL): $8,000 vs. LAR (19-21%)
  • Tyler Lockett, WR (SEA): $6,600 vs. BAL (17-20%)
  • Saquon Barkley, RB-FLEX (NYG): $8,900 vs. ARI (23-26%)
  • Mark Andrews, TE (BAL): $4,900 @ SEA (18-20%)
  • Indianapolis Colts DST: $2,000 vs. HOU (16-19%)

Over-Priced DK Plays (price vs. DKFP average)

  • Saquon Barkley, RB (NYG): 10th scoring (18.0) vs. 1st price ($8,900)
  • Julio Jones, WR (ATL): 8th scoring (18.9) vs. 1st price ($8,000)
  • DeAndre Hopkins, WR (HOU): 21st scoring (16.0) vs. 3rd price ($7,800)
  • Travis Kelce, TE (KC): 6th scoring (15.1) vs. 1st price ($6,900)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars DST: 21st scoring (5.3) vs. 4th price ($3,500)
  • George Kittle, TE (SF): 7th scoring (15.1) vs. 2nd price ($6,700)
  • Malcolm Brown, RB (LAR): 58th scoring (4.9) vs. 17th price ($5,700)
  • Melvin Gordon, RB (LAC): 42nd scoring (7.8) vs. 14th price ($5,900)
  • Josh Gordon, WR (NE): 55th scoring (9.1) vs. 21st price ($5,900)
  • Ezekiel Elliott, RB (DAL): 5th scoring (19.8) vs. 2nd price ($8,100)
  • Rhett Ellison, TE (NYG): 39th scoring (2.93) vs. 17th price ($3,400)
  • Los Angeles Chargers DST: 15th scoring (7.0) vs. 7th price ($3,100)

Under-Priced DK Plays (price vs. DKFP average)

  • Hunter Henry, TE (LAC): 9th price ($4,000) vs. 1st scoring (21.5)
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): 11th price ($6,200) vs. 2nd scoring (22.8)
  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): 9th price ($6,300) vs. 2nd scoring (27.4)
  • New York Jets DST: 23rd price ($2,100) vs. 6th scoring (8.8)
  • Terry McLaurin, WR (WAS): 15th price ($6,100) vs.4th scoring (19.9)
  • DJ Chark, WR (JAC): 17th price ($6,000) vs. 5th scoring (19.8)
  • Dalvin Cook, RB (MIN): 3rd price ($8,000) vs. 1st scoring 24.93)
  • Chicago Bears DST: 9th price ($3,000) vs. 3rd scoring (11.2)
  • Cooper Kupp, WR (LAR): 6th price ($7,400) vs. 2nd scoring (22.27)
  • Josh Jacobs, RB (OAK): 28th price ($5,000) vs. 11th scoring (16.7)
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): 5th price ($5,300) vs. 2nd scoring (19.3)
  • Kenny Golladay, WR (DET): 22nd price ($5,800) vs. 10th scoring (18.0)
  • Allen Robinson, WR (CHI): 28th price ($5,500) vs. 16th scoring (16.7)
  • Courland Sutton, WR (DEN): 34th price ($5,200) vs. 18th scoring (16.4)

Under-Priced FD Plays (price vs. FD average)

  • Hunter Henry, TE (LAC): 11th price ($5,700) vs. 1st scoring (17.0)
  • Terry McLaurin, WR (WAS): 21st price ($6,100) vs. 3rd scoring (16.4)
  • Austin Ekeler, RB (LAC): 12th price ($6,900) vs. 2nd scoring (19.0)
  • DJ Chark, WR (JAC): 16th price ($6,600) vs. 5th scoring (19.8)
  • Cooper Kupp, WR (LAR): 6th price ($7,800) vs. 2nd scoring (16.5)
  • Austin Hooper, TE (ATL): 5th price ($6,600) vs. 2nd scoring (14.8)
  • Tennessee Titans DST: 10th price ($4,200) vs. 4th scoring (9.0)
  • Chicago Bears DST: 7th price ($4,500) vs. 3rd scoring (11.2)
  • David Johnson, RB (ARI): 9th price ($7,400) vs. 4th scoring (17.7)
  • Matt Breida, RB (SF): 34th price ($5,600) vs. 19th scoring (12.3)
  • Calvin Ridley, WR (ATL): 45th price ($5,500) vs. 31st scoring (11.8)

DraftKings Values (vs. FD price)

  • Russell Wilson: 5th DK ($6,600) vs. 2nd FD ($8,500)
  • D.K. Metcalf: 55th DK ($4,800) vs. 27th ($6,200)
  • T.Y. Hilton, WR (IND): 19th DK ($5,900) vs. 8th FD ($7,600)
  • Foster Moreau, TE (OAK): 37th DK ($2,700) vs. 17th FD ($4,900)
  • Allen Robinson, WR (CHI): 28th DK ($5,500) vs. 13th FD ($7,000)
  • Brandin Cooks, WR (LAR): 31st DK ($5,400) vs. 15th FD ($6,700)
  • Robert Woods, WR (LAR): 20th DK ($5,900) vs. 10th FD ($7,300)
  • Kenny Golladay, WR (DET): 22nd DK ($5,800) vs. 11th FD ($7,100)
  • Josh Jacobs, RB (OAK): 28th DK ($5,000) vs. 15th FD ($6,700)
  • Kerryon Johnson, RB (DET): 26th DK ($5,100) vs. 14th FD ($6,800)
  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): 9th DK ($6,300) vs. 5th FD ($7,900)
  • Carlos Hyde, RB (HOU): 35th DK ($4,700) vs. 20th FD ($6,300)
  • Leonard Fournette, RB (JAC): 7th DK ($7,000) vs. 4th FD ($7,900)
  • Indianapolis Colts DST: 24th DK ($2,000) vs. 14th FD ($3,900)
  • Darren Fells, TE (HOU): 22nd DK ($3,100) vs. 13th FD ($5,400)
  • Phillip Rivers, QB (LAC): 18th DK ($5,500) vs. 11th FD ($7,600)
  • Mike Williams, WR (LAC): 47th DK ($4,600) vs. 28th FD ($6,200)

FanDuel Values (vs. DK price)

  • Daniel Jones, QB (NYG): 18th FD ($7,200) vs. 12th DK ($6,100)
  • David Johnson, RB (ARI): 9th FD ($7,400) vs. 4th DK ($7,800). He is only 12.3% of the FD cap but 15.6% of the DK cap.
  • Larry Fitzgerald, WR (ARI): 38th FD ($5,600) vs. 16th DK ($6,100). He is only 9.3% of FD cap but 12.2% of the DK cap.
  • Kyler Murray, QB (ARI): 8th FD ($7,700) vs. 4th DK ($6,700)
  • Deshaun Watson, QB (HOU): 4th FD ($8,300) vs. 1st DK ($7,000)
  • Houston Texans DST: 21st FD ($3,600) vs. 10th DK ($3,000)
  • Will Fuller, WR (HOU): 25th FD ($6,300) vs. 14th DK ($6,200)
  • Tyler Lockett, WR (SEA): 19th FD ($6,500) vs. 11th DK ($6,600). He is also 10.8% of the FD cap vs. 13.2 of the DK cap.
  • Tyler Boyd, WR (CIN): 40th FD ($5,600) vs. 26th DK ($5,600)

Notable DK Salary Increases

  • Saquon Barkley, RB (NYG): $8,900 vs. ARI (+1,900)
  • Evan Engram, TE (NYG): $6,500 vs. ARI (+1,700)
  • George Kittle, TE (SF): $6,700 @ WAS (+1,500)
  • Latavius Murray, RB (NO): $5,100 @ CHI (+1,400)
  • 49ers DST: $4,100 @ WAS (+1,400)
  • Jaguars DST: $3,500 @ CIN (+1,300)
  • Tevin Coleman, RB (SF): $5,600 @ WAS (+1,200)
  • Golden Tate, WR (NYG): $5,800) vs. ARI (+1,100)
  • Darius Slayton, WR (NYG): $4,100 vs. ARI (+1,000)
  • Texans DST: $3,000 @ IND (+900)
  • Daniel Jones, QB (NYG): $6,100 vs. ARI (+900)
  • Ryan Tannehill, QB (TEN): $4,800 vs. LAC (+600)
  • Kirk Cousins, QB (MIN): $5,800 @ DET (+600)
  • Chris Carson, RB (SEA): $6,500 vs. BAL (+500)
  • Hunter Henry, TE (LAC): $4,000 @ TEN (+500)
  • DJ Chark, WR (JAC): $6,000 @ CIN (+500)

Notable DK Salary Decreases

  • Ravens DST: $2,200 @ SEA (-1,900)
  • Willie Snead, WR (BAL): $4,200 @ SEA (-1,300)
  • Chris Thompson, RB (WAS): $4,000 vs. SF (-1,000)
  • Vernon Davis, TE (WAS): $3,300 vs. SF (-800)
  • Tyler Boyd, WR (CIN): $5,600 vs. JAC (-700)
  • Marquise Brown, WR (BAL): $5,600 @ SEA (-600)
  • Derrick Henry, RB (TEN): $5,800 vs. LAC (-500)
  • Joe Mixon, RB (CIN): $5,000 vs. JAC (-500)
  • Alvin Kamara, RB (NO): $7,500 @ CHI (-500)
  • Philip Rivers, QB (LAC): $5,500 @ TEN (-500)

Favorite Plays 4.5K and Under

  • Auden Tate, WR (CIN): $4,500 vs. JAC
  • Darius Slayton, WR (NYG): $4,100 vs. ARI
  • Hunter Henry, TE (LAC): $4,000 @ TEN
  • Darrell Henderson, RB (LAR): $3,500 @ ATL
  • Trevor Davis, WR (OAK): $3,300 @ GB
  • Allen Lazard, WR (GB): $3,000 vs. OAK

Princess Leia Lineup of the Week

I was 7 years old and Leia was not only a Princess but a goddess. She was my first crush. I fell madly in love with her at first sight. She was beautiful and could work a laser blaster as well as anyone in the galaxy. I was in love with Princess Leia BUT I didn’t end up marrying her. On first look, she was the love of my life but later I realized someone else was the real love of my life. On Sunday nights, I always make out an early cash game lineup that is based on finding the best balance of players that give the lineup a solid floor but with upside. This lineup is usually put together without doing extensive research. Typically, I love my first lineup that I create but don’t end up using it completely in my cash games (which I won at a 60% clip last year and at an 75% clip so far this year after four weeks, btw, #humblebrag).  Here was my early lineup this week that I also probably won’t end up marrying.

  • Matt Ryan, QB (ATL): $6,300 vs. LAR
  • Leonard Fournette, RB (JAC): $7,000 @ CIN
  • Josh Jacobs, RB (OAK): $5,000 @ GB
  • Tyler Boyd, WR (CIN): $5,600 vs. JAC
  • T.Y. Hilton, WR (IND): $5,900 vs. HOU
  • Allen Robinson, WR (CHI): $5500 vs. NO
  • Hunter Henry, TE (LAC): $4,000 @ TEN
  • Marlon Mack, RB (IND): $6,000 vs. HOU
  • Buffalo Bills DST: $4,300 vs. MIA

Jamy Bechler writes a weekly article for Couch Potato GM and is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

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@WinningDFS101

Author: @WinningDFS101