Alright we righted the ship in Week 11. However, the Start/Sit success rate is magnified in Week 12 with playoff implications hanging in the balance. One more quick look at what my Week 11 Start/Sit recommendations yielded in preparation for Week 12.
What I got RIGHT in Week 11 Start/Sit
- Derek Carr LVR – Carr was excellent in this one. I don’t think the QB8 Overall finish does him justice (22.6 pts.)
- Drew Lock DEN – Saw this one coming a mile away (12.10 pts.)
- Mike Davis CAR – A Top 12 finish, sign me up every week (15.9 pts.)
- James Conner PIT – Solid RB2 performance… but Benny Snell’s vulture role is a problem (12.9 pts.)
- Todd Gurley ATL – Hide your running backs from New Orleans (3.9 pts.)
- Cavin Ridley ATL – Honestly thought he was in store for a bigger performance but the Falcons’ offensive line couldn’t hold up (14.0 pts.)
- CeeDee Lamb DAL – WR2 performance right on que (16.6 pts.)
- DJ Chark JAX – We’ve seen enough Jake Luton in 2020 (8.1 pts.)
What I got Wrong in Week 11 Start/Sit
- Alex Smith WAS – I guess the Kansas City Chiefs version of Alex Smith isn’t walking thru that door (9.34 pts.)
- Logan Thomas WAS – I’m almost certain the tight end position is going to cost me a championship or two this season (2.8 pts.)
Let’s keep our foot on the accelerator! Let’s get into Week 12 Start/Sit recommendations.
Quarterback Start/Sit Recommendations
START Derek Carr @ Atlanta Falcons
Carr was terrific in Week 11 and I’m going right back to the well considering his matchup this week. Heading into Week 12, the Atlanta Falcons allow the most fantasy points per game (26.5) to the quarterback position. You know the story by now. Atlanta allows the highest QB Rating against (105.9) in the league; a direcct correlation to their inability to affect the passer. Frankly, if you opt to start Carr this week, leave him in your lineup as he gets another choice matchup (NYJ) next week. Start em.
START Daniel Jones @ Cincinnati Bengals
It’s been a disappointing fantasy season for Daniel Jones. Considering his rushing upside he was a relatively popular late round QB selection. However, the change in offense sans a legitimate offseason and his propensity to turn the ball over has led to an underwhelming performance thus far. However, I’ve seen improved play from the young signal-caller in recent weeks despite facing quality defenses.
Coming off a bye, I expect the New York Giants offense to take advantage of the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals have given up 22 passing TDs thus far tied for 2nd most in the NFL. Their listless pass rush should afford Daniel Jones plenty of time to find his weapons on the perimeter. Jones’ rushing upside should secure a solid floor provided he doesn’t turn the ball over.
SIT Ryan Tannehill @ Indianapolis Colts
I’m not all the way out on Ryan Tannehill but I do believe there are a host of safer options at QB this week. The matchup is a concern as Indianapolis is buttoned up defensively. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of the Colts’ defense is their abilty to make adjustments at half time. Tannehill and the Titans passing attack was largely non-existent during the first matchup between divison foes; his 147 yards passing were a season low. He’s only failed to throw for multiple TDs in a game twice this year; however, the last coming in Week 10, against the Indianapolis Colts.
START Brian Hill vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Todd Gurley is expected to miss the Week 12 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. Next man up is Brian Hill and I am anticipating an RB2/FLEX performance. Las Vegas currently allows the 5th most fantasy points per game (22.0) to the running back position. Unless the Raiders have done some self-scouting, I expect the Falcons to get Hill off-tackle.
Las Vegas routinely fails to set the edge defensively running an inordinate amount of stunts and twists. Of course the Raiders have to play games up front in order to generate a pass rush. As a result their run defense becomes compromised. The Falcons struggled to protect Matt Ryan a week ago. Therefore, I expect Atlanta to make a concerted effort to get the ground game going. Brian Hill should be the primary beneficiary.
START Wayne Gallman @ Cincinnati Bengals
Since the Devonta Freeman experiement ended in the wake of Saquon Barkley’s injury; Wayne Gallman has been a steay peformer. Gallman has operated as the Giants lead back for a month now and has scored in four straight games. I’ve always believed that Gallman is a capable back albeit not the most gifted. Now with improved offensive line and quarterback play and the requisite opportunity he has become a legitimiate fantasy asset this season. This week’s matchup against the Bengals is particularly intriguing as they allow 136.2 rushing yards per game; 3rd most in the NFL.
SIT Darrell Henderson/Cam Akers/Malcolm Brown vs. San Francisco 49ers
As much as I would like to see Darrell Henderson featured in the Rams rushing attack it’s not happening. Over the past three contests Henderson has failed to receive double digit rush attempts. However, Henderson’s reduced volume hasn’t made the rushing pecking order in Los Angeles anymore clear. Cam Akers nor Malcolm Brown have eclipssed 10 rush attempts during that same three game span. It’s a full blown committee. No telling who will find the endzone. Sit em.
Wide Receivers Start/Sit Recommendations
START Nelson Agholor @ Atlanta Falcons
Set aside whatever bias you might have based on how things ended for Agholor in Philly and prioritize your fantasy football team’s success. Nelson Agholor is getting open consistently. Agholor has caught five touchdowns in the Raiders last seven contests. Among Las Vegas WRs, he is Derek Carr’s preferred target. If the matchup is good for Derek Carr, the matchup is good for Nelson Agholor. Not to mention the Atlanta Falcons allow the third most fantasy points per game (29.2) to the wide receiver position. Start em.
START DeVante Parker @ New York Jets
Whether Tua or Fitzmagic starts it doesn’t matter. No Preston Williams, so it’s about time for the DeVante Parker to go on a late season tear. The winless Jets allow the seventh most fantasy points per game (26.7) to the wide receiver position and are just as bad as the Falcons in terms of passer rating allowed (105.6). However, that’s not all. The New York Jets offense has shown life in recent weeks. Their abilty to score should (hopefully) keep the Dolphins’ passing game viable for the duration of the contest.
SIT Travis Fulgham vs. Seattle Seahawks
Since Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor returned to the lineup Travis Fulgham has has averaged five fewer targets a game; with just two catches the last two weeks. Offensive line issues, poor play-calling and abysmal quarterback play plague the Philadelphia Eagles. This is a great matchup but I don’t trust the assembly line that leads to a completed pass in Philly. Sit em.
START Rob Gronkowski vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Your guess is as good as mine at the tight end position. Seriously, the Bucs have a ton of perimeter weapons not unlike the Kansas City Chiefs. The media is questionning Tom Brady as he’s struggled in primetime matchups this season. He’ll have a chip on his shoulder and while KC’s defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo is trying to contain Evans, Godwin and Brown; I anticipate Gronk will find the endzone at least once this week.
Best of luck this weekend. Remember always start your STUDS and I take ZERO responsibility if these Start/Sit recommendations are wrong. Also, if my calls are right make certain you tell a friend. Start/Sit.