Each week, CPGM writer @itsharristime will be letting you know who to “buy or bye” off the Waiver for your upcoming fantasy week. These are players that are owned in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues. Scoring is based on full point PPR.
Week 13 would prove to be a polarizing week for many fantasy footballers. You’ve worked so hard in the pre-season doing your mock drafts. Researching. Planning. Executing on draft day. Working the waivers every week tirelessly. Shoring up your team by trade. The process sometimes for the winners and the losers are the same; Week 13 is the culmination of all this hard work. The results? Well, that’s where the polarization comes in. For some, we are riding high from our relentless efforts with a berth into the big dance. Others? Well, we are at rock bottom trying to figure out where things went wrong.
On either end of the spectrum, please take the time to pat yourself on the back. Pat yourself on the back for the takes that worked (Drafting D.J Chark late or jumping on him early on waivers) and, equally, giving yourself credit for the takes that didn’t work out (Saquon Barkley at the 1.01).
Often, the process may be right, the outcome might just be wrong. We couldn’t forsee Saquon going down with a high ankle sprain in Week 3. Injury susceptability can be part of our overall process and factor into our draft strategy, yes. But Saquon has been a healthy workhorse throughout his collegiate and young NFL career with a tendancy to rebound quickly from injury. What we could not control? Pat Shurmur’s play calling upon his return, and continuing to run the skilled back straight up the middle.
Alas, some things we just have to admit are beyond our control. However, we might have been able to predict Chark’s breakout. How? By a determined research process looking at collegiate statistics and athletic profile. Both popped for Chark, yet, was an afterthought during fantasy football drafts this summer and fall. Chark was largely undrafted during fantasy drafts, and doesn’t hold an ADP for 2019. This, of course, will change in 2020 where Chark seems matchup/quarterback proof. He’ll be going in the Top 10 of WR’s drafted for 2020.
Chark and Barkley are both proof that you need to keep the faith in your process. You need to be in control of the non-variables you know to be true. And this holds true in both the good and the bad. Stick to looking at metrics that matter and you’ll be in the winning column the majority of the time. For those of you that missed your playoff shot? Dust yourself off and get ready for next season.
For those of you poised to be in the big show? Let’s get you some players in this week’s “Buy or Bye” that will take you one step closer to the championship.
Buy – Daniel Jones, 26% Owned, New York Giants
What a great time to be alive and to be streaming quarterbacks! Last week’s QB “Buy” feature was Ryan Tannehill, and, in a tough divisional match-up, willed the Titans to a win. He’s still my #1 buy this week, with a plus match-up vs the now lifeless Raiders.
If he’s already gobbled up?
Let’s go back to one of my favorite young quarterbacks in Daniel “Danny Dimes” Jones.
Jones has been featured here before, and has not disapointed, putting up QB1 fantasy games of 34.24 FP, 28.18 FP, and 30.32 FP. The reason that I’d give the nod to Tannehill in Week 14 is more for his floor play than the high variance ceiling of Jones.
Danny Dimes has been getting it done with both his legs and arm. He’s shown clear rapport with his WR corps in Darius Slayton (5 TDs), Golden Tate (4 TDs), and with a now healthy Sterling Shepard. Shepard in his first game back put up 40 YDs and a TD from the first year QB.
Jones has shown the ability to stand in the pocket and take punishment, and, to evade the pass rush with his athletic ability. This has been shown by the 241 rushing YDs he’s accumlated this season, and a healthy 6.2 YPC.
So what’s not to like about the young QB out of Duke?
His high variance would be one thing, and the second would be that Jones has proven to be highly turnover prone. Jones has been recorded with 15 fumbles through Week 13, and, has committed 11 interceptions. This can partially be accredited to the 33 sacks he’s taken behind a re-building O-Line, but, not all can be blamed on that. Though Jones legs are an asset, his ability to hold the ball on those rushes has turned into a liability.
I’m willing to risk it with Jones in Week 14 as his ceiling is undeniable. In a plus match-up versus an Eagles team that allowed the Dolphins to put up 37 points, I’m buying Jones. It also helps that he faces Miami, Washington, and then Philadelphia again to finish out the season.
Buy Jones without hesitation if you need to ride a QB to the championship.
Other Quarterbacks I’m Buying on the Waiver Wire –
- Ryan Tannehill, 39% Owned, Tennessee Titans
- Jacoby Brissett, 38% Owned, Indianapolis Colts
- Ryan Fitzpatrick, 10% Owned, Miami Dolphins
- Gardner Minshew, 8% Owned, Jacksonville Jaguars
Bye – Derek Carr, 51% Owned, Oakland Raiders
I’ve long been a Carr apologist. He’s been critized for “not having a deep ball” and, literally, doesn’t rush the ball.
But does that really matter in the right system?
The last two weeks are a testament to the fact that yes, indeed, it does matter.
With two paltry performances in what looked like prime fantasy matchups versus the Jets and Chiefs, Carr’s fantasy and real football relevance is dwindling. The shimmer has started to come off of the Raiders shine in recent weeks and it doesn’t look to improve with upcoming games vs Tennessee, Jacksonville and the Chargers.
I’m waving bye to Derek Carr and scratching my head on what the Raiders are to do with Carr as they prepare to move to Vegas.
Buy – Jaylen Samuels, 49% Owned, Benny Snell, 34% Owned, Pittsburgh Steelers
It looks like we’ve got a little “Thunder & Lightning” situation with Steelers backs Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels.
With James Conner being ruled day-to-day for what seems like an eternity, the Steelers are getting it done by committee. The committee in question is second year Swiss Army knife Jaylen Samuels and the rookie between the tackles grinder Benny Snell.
Samuels ownership has been slipping to levels where he can appear in “Buy or Bye” and Snell is now seeing the snaps required to make him a legitimate flex option.
Both of these guys are desperation plays, but, will provide solid floors via volume. With “Duck” Hodges at QB the Steelers have made it clear that they are going to win via the run and by highly schemed shots down the field. Oh, and above all, going to win with dominant defensive performances. This was on display in Week 13 where the defense sacked Baker Mayfield 5 times and recorded 1 interception.
To complement the dominant defensive performance, the Steelers committed to the run, with Snell putting up 63 rushing YDs and Samuels 32 Yds. Not exactly world beating numbers, but Snell put up 13.70 FP and Samuels 7.40 FP. Solid floor numbers and with a TD they are viable starters.
This isn’t going to be pretty, but I’d flex either of these Steelers RBs in Week 14 vs Arizona who has given up the 11th most points to RBs this season.
Wheels up on these Steelers RB’s until a James Conner return.
Other Running Backs I’m Buying on the Waiver Wire –
- Patrick Laird, 1% Owned, Miami Dolphins
- Alexander Mattison, 27% Owned, Minnesota Vikings
- Darrell Henderson, 14% Owned, Los Angeles Rams
- Chase Edmonds, 14% Owned, Arizona Cardinals
- Tony Pollard, 13% Owned, Los Angeles Rams
- Darwin Thompson, 5% Owned, Kansas City Chiefs
Bye – Kalen Ballage , 27% Owned, Miami Dolphins
Even before Ballage went down with a non-contact injury in Week 13, he should not have been rostered anywhere.
With Ballage expected to miss the rest of the season, he is droppable in every format if you haven’t done so already.
Bye-bye Kalen, I wish you the best in your recovery.
Buy – Anthony Miller, 14% Owned, Chicago Bears
It’s not often that a high pedigree WR that is getting the bulk of the teams passing opportunities is available heading in the fantasy playoffs.
Miller is the rare case, and you must push the “buy” button immediately on the young slot WR.
We aren’t sure what “clicked” for the coaching staff in Chicago over the last three weeks, and, I’m not sure we care. But something dawned on the team, and, Miller’s subsequent usage has made him fantasy relevant. Over the last 3 weeks, Miller has seen a whopping 33 targets. Up until Week 10, Miller had seen a total of 30 targets. This increase in targets has seen Miller put up fantasy weeks of 11.40 FP, 13.70 FP and 23 FP.
The pedigree here with Miller is clear, as he had a strong college career. Usage has been the issue up until this point, and, now that this has been cleared up, Miller is a must buy floor play on waivers.
With on paper tough match-ups coming up vs Dallas, Green Bay and KC, Miller might seem like a fade. However, as an outlet option in the slot to the TE-less Bears, and Allen Robinson getting #1 CB coverage, Miller is a solid floor play for WR needy teams.
You’re buying Miller across all formats, and, I hope you plucked him off a dissatisfied dynasty owners roster in late November.
Other Wide Receivers I’m Buying on the Waiver Wire –
- AJ Brown, 17% Owned, Tennessee Titans
- Randall Cobb, 30% Owned, Dallas Cowboys
- James Washington, 20% Owned, Pittsburgh Steelers
- N’Keal Harry, 14% Owned, New England Patriots
Bye – Danny Amendola, 25% Owned, Detroit Lions
Even as we near the end of the fantasy season, and the talent pools have been plucked over, I’m left scrtaching my head at times.
I’m left scratching my head when a player like Danny Amendola is at a 25% ownership. This is when highly talented receivers with explosive upside like AJ Brown, Anthony Miller, and N’Keal Harry have a lower ownership % than the former Patriots WR.
Yes, Amendola did put up 3 decent games with performances of 23.40 FP, 18.50, and 17.50. Anyone would want that type of production from their WR.
The important thing about those games? It was with Matt Stafford under center.
With Stafford out for the rest of the season, this Detroit offense has not been the same.
The Lions also face three strong secondaries during their last four games. I don’t expect David Blough to recapture his Week 13 magic against Minnesota, Denver and Green Bay.
Oh Danny-Boy, the pipes are calling you…. bye-bye.
Buy – Mike Gesicki, 19% Owned, Miami Dolphins
It is as if tight-endageddon has blown past us over the last two weeks. With no notable tight end recently, the talent pool has streamlined. The schedules of the available TEs on the waiver wire has also softened, making this weeks “buys” plentiful.
It was a tough time deciding between the available TE’s. Fant, Howard, and, if healthy, Njoku are all strong adds with plus match-ups to finish the season.
So then, why does the super athlete with the fun to say last name in Miami gets the nod?
Well, Gesicki has been ascending in recent weeks with TE1 performances versus Cleveland and Philadelphia. The fantasy production has been there, but more importantly, Gesicki is the defacto #2 passing option for Ryan Fitzpatrick, only behind DeVante Parker. More importantly, over this time period, Gesicki is playing over 85% of the teams snaps.
Gesicki also gets the nod as a featured “buy” candidate because of the Dolphins fantasy playoff schedule: Jets, Giants, Bengals.
With Brian Flores and his band of merry-men finding ways to win, I like Gesicki to finish the season strong and be a TE favorite in fantasy drafts next season.
I’m buying Mike Gesicki in the suddenly talent rich (and healthy) TE pool.
Other Tight Ends I’m Buying on the Waiver Wire:
- Noah Fant, 34% Owned, Denver Broncos
- Darren Fells, 38% Owned, Houston Texans
- OJ Howard, 32% Owned, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- David Njoku, 29% Owned, Cleveland Browns
Bye – Gerald Everett, 45% Owned, Los Angeles Rams
With Everett banged up, and the once barren TE position now flourishing with breakout candidates, I’m waving bye to Everett.
Early in the season, Everett seemed like a potential breakout star at the position. The Rams once dominant WR core apparently had turned to dust, and Everett became a vital piece of the passing game from weeks 4-10.
Jared Goff is now coming back to life and finding his favorite receivers in Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp and a healthy Brandin Cooks back, a banged up Everett can be dropped.
With Everett not being 100% and there being better options on the waiver, you can’t afford to risk the roster spot. And with most fantasy playoffs being wrapped up by Week 16, there is no sense in holding him for dream comeback match versus a plus matchup versus Arizona in Week 17.
I’m waving bye to Everett and keeping a close watch on him during drafts next season.
Defensive Buy of the Week
Buy – Green Bay Packers vs Washington
I’m going right back to the Washington well this week after they surprised the football world with an upset of the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers were also a defensive “buy” in this very column last week. It wasn’t the dominant performance that many anticipated, but the Panthers still eeked out 5 sacks and 6 FP in their surprising loss.
Starting the season with much ablomb, Green Bay’s defense was earning praise from the long maligned Aaron Rodgers.
The Green Bay faithful were hopeful that the revamped d.corps would take some of the pressure off of Rodgers, and allow them to win games in more than just gun slinging fashion.
The results? Less than anticipated, but, still believed to be an improvement over previous years. Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Adrian Amos headline the free agents added to complement first round rookies Rashan Gary and Darnell Savage. The new look unit has been dominant for stretches, and, their upcoming Lambeau Field matchup vs Washington could be a get right spot for the struggling unit.
Washington has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing defenses, and in a cold weather matchup in Green Bay, I like the Packers to make a statement against rookie QB Dwayne Haskins.
This buy you don’t have to think too hard about, as the other D/ST options are high volatile. Let’s take the 10 points the Cheeseheads will give us and move onto the next round.
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About the Author- @itsharristime is relatively new to the fantasy football scene having spent most of his life watching and playing hockey like a good Canadian. He’s making up for lost time by playing big on Draft, FanDuel, and is involved in season long and dynasty leagues on FFPC, Yahoo, ESPN and MyFantasyLeague. Steeler football, family, rock n’ roll and keeping things simple.
Seek value and have no player bias=winning formula.